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Sunday, November 24, 2013

Big mid week storm is a mainly rain to some snow situation

With the thanksgiving holiday being one of the more popular travel periods, there has been lots of talk about the upcoming storm this week. Energy in the southern branch is going to churn up a pretty impressive weather system with lots of help from the Gulf of Mexico. With some of the coldest November weather in a decade currently in place, one could certainly envision a big dump for Vermont. Right now it looks like more of a rain to some snow event. There was a bit of back and forth with the models but there is some pretty good agreement over the last 24 hours or so to take this moist system up through the lower Hudson Valley and up through New Hampshire.  In the middle of winter, this type of track could deliver the goods, but this is still late November and its very easy to draw some very warm into the equation this early in the season. Precipitation could start as a little snow late Tuesday evening before going to a cold rain by Wednesday. Accumulating snow is still likely as the storm pushes off to the northeast later Wednesday, maybe something on the order of 4-8 inches followed by another round of very chilly November weather.

We are not getting much support from some of our favorite teleconnection indices going into December. Nonetheless, the jet stream in the eastern Pacific will remain rather loose and allow arctic air to remain on the playing field through a good part of next week. There have been hints of something significant for interior New England between the 2nd and 4th of December. We will have more on that during the middle of the week. A good event next week should have the powers-that-be at MRG talking opening.

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