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Monday, November 24, 2014

Quick hitting 5-10 incher Thanksgiving eve/day followed by an early season body-blow

The near-60 degree temperatures took the wind out of our November sails so to speak. The pattern has one more good amplification left in its stash however and that comes Thanksgiving-eve into Thanksgiving day. More than anything, I hope its a preview of things to come since this jet amplification will tap into the more active El Nino fueled southern branch of the jet stream. The weather system will cross north-central Florida late Tuesday and progress up the Atlantic coast Wednesday. The storm will undergo some rapid deepening particularly late in the day Wednesday and this combined with it's already attained moisture will make the weather system a formidable one albeit quick moving.

Wednesday is a massive travel day, and the storm prospects of a storm and its potential impact on East Coast metropolis conglomerate has many weather personalities and forecasting outfits debating the potential impacts. For the I95 corridor it  is an interesting debate of whether some of the impressive dynamics associated with this storm, can on its own, overwhelm a very limited supply of available cold air at the surface. I will leave this debate for others to partake. Our debate pertains only to amounts of snow, which is a much more preferable argument to the rain/snow argument. Snow, and only snow, should begin mid-afternoon Wednesday and continue through about half the overnight. Some of the heaviest precipitation is likely to fall south and east of North-Central Vermont but snowfall of the light to moderate intensity for several hours will be good enough for a 5-10 inch snowfall.

Thursday and Friday are both dominated by chilly weather, at least for November standards. Terrain induced snow showers on Friday could bring an additional few inches to parts of northern Vermont. After that we head into early December and some early season rough-sledding. We will lose support from nearly all of our favorite teleconnections, particularly the PNA which will reverse signs by late November. Cold will fight for partial control of the weather across interior New England but we will have several mild days between at least the 1st and 9th of December. To be perfectly blunt. We will not be able to continue this early season momentum and will have to endure a break.

I think mild pattern will run it's course by around the time of December 10th. Ensembles are only showing some weak signs of a more neutral set up by then but it's early.

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