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Monday, November 30, 2015

Tough to find any winter in this pattern but I am looking !

We role quite quickly into December but this transition into the winter months has been quite slow from the standpoint of weather. A very mild weather pattern has strengthened its grip on eastern North America and the ski areas, east of the Mississippi River will suffer as a result. The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) is the big culprit, allowing the "evil empire" into our lives almost in time for the new Star Wars movie. There is a lot of jet energy south of the Bering Sea and we desperately need the atmosphere to relax across that part of the globe for positive changes to emerge in New England. This is a very problematic part of the winter equation this year however since the powerful El Nino is pushing the jet stream north in the south Pacific and contributing to the head ache. All that said, we can still split the flow across the U.S. and possibly generate a little excitement through December 20th. It will be a tough go with above normal temperatures expected to about at least the time of the winter solstice.

In the short term, a large and disorganized weather system will bring it's moisture into the region for the first few days of December. Some areas will see some ice for a few hours Tuesday evening but Wednesday will be generally wet with temps in the upper 30's. We will see some snow from this system eventually however. This occurs Thursday as the upper air component of this storm system passes us. Amazingly, there is little to no arctic air with this storm and snow will be supported by near freezing temps at best at the base and maybe upper 20's at the summit. Not very impressive, but the mountain will likely see a few wet inches, with as much as 5 inches at the summit.

We have a long stretch of generally dry weather that will follow for the first full weekend of December, persisting through most of next week. Temperatures will remain mild relative to average but not incredibly warm. Most of our nights will be well below freezing though many of our days will see readings above freezing and even above 40 in a few instances. Organized precipitation will generally be confined to rain or snow showers but shouldn't amount to much.

The pattern remains supportive of mild temperatures beyond that but we should see an increase in storminess. The first organized system should impact the region between the 12th-14th of the month and another may follow between the 16th and 19th of the month. Both should be products of the powerful jet in the Pacific. Though we have little cold air to work with, the jet stream is expected to split in this time frame with one piece guiding the storms through the southern United States while the rest retreats deep into Canada. The right set of circumstances could allow for a good interior elevation sensitive snow event but that's about the best we can hope for right now. Happy December !

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