Yeah the snow is a little wet and yeah temperatures have spent a lot of time above the freezing mark but as an MRG skier, you have to be delighted with the fact that a nice base is down and we appear to be headed toward a long stretch of sub-freezing temperatures including some very cold days. There is snow possibilities to discuss as well and though again, I can't claim to have any "inside info" on opening day, I would be surprised if those specifics are not openly discussed by the MRG folks within a few days or so. Oh and it appears the Mad River Glen temperature sensor is working again (It was stuck at 32 for 3 weeks or so).
So lets get to it. More snow showers and a few snow squalls arrive either late on Thursday or Friday evening. Thursday's daytime temps will probably be the last above freezing readings we see at the base for a while and I doubt it gets past 30 above mid-mountain so we are free to fly. By early Saturday we should readings near 10 and another 2-4 inches of snow.
The big weather system of interest will migrate its way into the plain states on Sunday and head east north-east toward us. We will have some cold air in place but the system appears to be headed toward the eastern Great Lakes as it attains strength. Models have been providing us with varying solutions so ideas will need some fine tuning. At worst, I don't think the system will bring much in the way of plain rain. Snow and ice begin sometime on Monday and on Tuesday we move to all snow. If the system is farther south and a bit weaker, we could have an all snow event of 6-12 inches. A snow/ice conglomeration is good foundation material however so I wouldn't be too disappointed if that was the result.
A beautiful looking high latitude "rex block" over Bering Sea will go to work as this is all happening. Arctic air, of a much colder variety, will plunge southward and hit the northern tier of the U.S. and all of southern Canada quite hard during the middle of next week. The bitterly cold temperatures will encounter the relative warmth of the Great Lakes and an unfrozen Hudson Bay so the airmass will modify some. Still however, we will finally get some decent chill. It will follow a light accumulation of snow early Wednesday and send temperatures down into the single numbers by Thursday and below zero in a few areas at least by Friday.
I'd expect the cold weather to be reinforced once around the weekend of the 17th and 18th and within that time frame, another weather system could impact the region with snow. The polar jet is then expected to retreat somewhat as we approach the time of the winter solstice and milder air will consume a good portion of the United States. It is still a question how far north the teeth of this milder air will bite and ensembles do indicate that there could be some resistance to any warm-up in our neck of the woods. Needless to say, I am both optimistic and hopeful about the last two thirds of our month, it could be a very nice stretch.