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Sunday, January 22, 2017

Monday/Tuesday storm details and additional snowfall in the days to follow

Spring-like late March weather continues in Vermont but 36 is better than 50 and that's what we had on Saturday and we will see more of that on Sunday. Drier and slightly colder air will advance into the region late on Sunday and every bit of dry and every bit of cool is vital as our next storm advances toward the coast and then up the coast on Monday. 

I think we have a better handle on some of the specifics with this storm as of Saturday evening. We will get both temperatures and dewpoints down into the 20's on Monday morning as precipitation advances up through New York state and into New England. Readings will rise into the 30's during the day but should fall back into the 28-31 degree range as precipitation beings Monday night. It remains a very close call but it looks like a classic situation where the heaviest precipitation should fall as snow. We could actually see some fairly heavy snow for a few hours and I am inclined to think that 4-8 inches of relatively wet snow is a best guess by first tracks time Tuesday. There is some data out there indicating more sleet and freezing rain and when precipitation rates let up toward daybreak Tuesday, this is certainly possible if not likely for a while. As Tuesday progresses, the upper level low responsible for this big storm will approach the region and allow the critical layers of the atmosphere to cool enough for another few periods of snow and some additional accumulation, especially up past the mid-station. When it's all said and done, accumulations will probably be in the 4-8 inch range near the base but 8-12 inches at the summit. The snow consistency will be pretty dense, especially at the base and a bit gloppy on Tuesday but a little more powdery up near the top. I am certainly happy we can avoid a rain event, especially in this god-awful pattern we are immersed in but this storm could have been a 2 footer if the intensification of this storm could have followed through off shore. Instead, the storm will peak out east of the Delmarva around midnight Tuesday and weaken somewhat as it approaches Cape Cod. 

More above-freezing temperatures will impact parts of the mountain on Wednesday but this will  be the last of any melting for while. A weakening storm system will approach from the Midwest and bring some limited moisture with it. Precipitation will be snow but will be relatively light. Moist flow from the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain plus some instability will put the terrain induced snow machine into action Thursday and snow showers should be prevalent for much of the day. Some parts of the Green Mountains will do better than others, it looks like farther north will do better right now but Mad River should receive a few inches of snow at least between late Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures should remain near 30 on Thursday and remain in the 20's Friday. There are additional disturbances over the last full weekend of January that should add to the snow totals. Right now, it looks like this particular weekend could be a real winner. 

I'll discuss the longer range in greater detail in subsequent updates but the effects of a large ridge which will temporarily build across western North America will provide the region with a stretch of cold weather which will persist through the first few days of February. This ridge is expected to collapse quickly however and the PNA goes negative. This means more storminess for the west and less widespread cold for the east. That said there are a few teleconnection indices that will help to keep New England wintry even as the rest of the east coast warms and I'll maintain for now that the start of the month looks pretty good. 


billski said...

Everyday I wait for another update; yours is by far the best snow/skier oriented blog/forecast for the northeast. While others claim, you deliver! I'm betting on best conditions for Wednesday, but setting aside Thursday "just in case". I'm thinking, based on your prognosis that the snow will be similar in density to what I found last midweek. I presume that with the sucky weather of the last couple days there may call into question whether to remain open on Monday? I really liked last week's setup when we got untracked a day AFTER everyone else did.
Hope you get some skiing in!

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Chris Haviland said...

Saw your Twitter exchange with NWSBurlington from last night. Maybe you might want to consider the "cut/paste" option from now on. ;)

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