We got one 4 incher on Friday and a lot of cold weather over the weekend, but I was hoping for substantially more out of this 2018 winter encore. The big disappointment is the early week storm which was certainly capable making an impact but will exit the east coast with a whimper early Tuesday, April 10th. This meager system does have an inverted trough structure which will spread some light snow or snow showers across both New York and New England Monday night into Tuesday. Mad River Glen and surroundings could score about an inch out of this but the event will fall well short of what will be needed to open the re open the mountain. The spring warming trend will commence in the wake of the light snow on Tuesday and though this process will be rather slow over the coming week, the snowmelt will begin to speed up across the high country. Given this information, today's update will be the last regular one of the season before the blog's traditional summer hiatus though a proper end of season summary will follow this in the coming week or two.
Wednesday will start out chilly with another round of near 20 degree temperatures but some limited April sunshine will boost readings into the 40's. It will take some time to soften up some of the snow near the summits of the mountains that remain open. Lower dewpoints (near 20) Wednesday might also keep the corn horn at bay but Thursday's temps will be a few degrees warmer and so will the dewpoints which could prove to be the difference. Thursday could also feature some mixed precipitation especially late which will end as some plain rain. Friday looks a few degrees milder yet again, near 50, and most if the opened terrain should be softened.
The weekend forecast has taken a turn for the colder in recent days. Some chilly arctic air is looming in Canada and seems intent on making a charge southward through the New England side door this weekend (via Quebec). Models have yet to give us a conclusive read out of the weekend's weather but I trust the Euro which has established some consistency over the last 48 hours. Some forecasts still have readings in the 50's this weekend but I expect this to drop in the coming days. In the end, both Saturday and Sunday should feature lots of clouds and temperatures between 32 and 42. Visibility might also be pretty limited and some rain is likely though the timing of this remains uncertain.
Heavier rain is likely for a period early next week (April 16th or 17th) which might end as some snow during the middle of the week. For the most part, temperatures should remain well above freezing during the day with only a few hours of below freezing temperatures during the overnights late in the week.
Monday, April 9, 2018
Wednesday, April 4, 2018
The winter encore continues for another week with snow Friday and possibly more after that
The upcoming week is likely to be the last "serious" roar of the 2017-2018 winter season. I woudn't crown the season has historic by any means, but one has to credit the longevity. The upcoming week will feature plenty of anomalous cold and 3 decent chances for snowfall. The first chance Friday is a near certainty at this point, the next two not as much.
Visibility will finally improve Thursday with the arrival of a serious charge or cold dry arctic chill. Thanks to some blustery winds, the day will have a mid-wintry feel to it with readings starting out in the teens and struggling to reach the freezing mark. Any morning flurries will give way to some sunshine, a welcome sight given the dreariness of Tuesday and Wednesday. A strengthening clipper system will bring snow back to much of Vermont Friday. Clouds will arrive in the pre-dawn hours Friday and the snow comes soon after with temperatures predominantly in the 20's. The snow should accumulate 3-5 inches across the high country by the middle of the afternoon, diminish for a time and then resume as occasional snow showers Friday night. Temperatures Friday are likely to reach the freezing mark, allowing the snow to be on the wetter side in the valleys though its likely to remain powdery closer to the summits.
Arctic air will gradually attempt to rebuild across the region on Saturday but a wave of low pressure will try and establish itself into a full fledged storm along the Carolina coastline by late in the day. Incoming energy in the polar jet has the capability of further igniting this system and allowing for a period of snowfall in the Saturday night time frame. Significant snow is not a likely outcome with this storm but it bears watching as almost anything is possible in this type of set up. The masters golf tournament will finish up this Sunday but Vermont will spend most of the day in sub-freezing country with readings in the 20's during the morning and 30's during the afternoon. Snow is possible early Sunday from the aforementioned storm, but again, the chance for a big accumulation is on the low side.
The pattern does have a caboose. The jet stream will be relaxing early next week as some of the polar jet energy diminishes or retreats. Meanwhile, a weather system will gather some steam as it crosses the middle of the country Monday and begins gathering a bit of Atlantic Ocean moisture Monday night. Without the full ferocity of the polar jet, the storm will not have as much cold air to work with and will be moving decidedly slower. That said, it has the capability of becoming a rather potent east coast weather producer by Tuesday April 11 and snowfall will largely depend on the track of whatever develops. For now, better to just emphasize the potential and also understand that the system could stay south, move well north or just fall apart altogether. I would place the chances for significant snow at 30-40 percent though which isn't bad 6 or so days out.
I suggested a pattern change toward the warmer side around April 10 during the last update which obviously appears delayed but not by much. The relaxing jet stream will allow temperatures to modify by the end of the week and readings are likely going to reach the 50's and even 60's by the middle of the month. Though winter is likely to take an isolated punch or two at us after that, I am guessing that this is it as far as sustained wintry weather is concerned. Enjoy
Visibility will finally improve Thursday with the arrival of a serious charge or cold dry arctic chill. Thanks to some blustery winds, the day will have a mid-wintry feel to it with readings starting out in the teens and struggling to reach the freezing mark. Any morning flurries will give way to some sunshine, a welcome sight given the dreariness of Tuesday and Wednesday. A strengthening clipper system will bring snow back to much of Vermont Friday. Clouds will arrive in the pre-dawn hours Friday and the snow comes soon after with temperatures predominantly in the 20's. The snow should accumulate 3-5 inches across the high country by the middle of the afternoon, diminish for a time and then resume as occasional snow showers Friday night. Temperatures Friday are likely to reach the freezing mark, allowing the snow to be on the wetter side in the valleys though its likely to remain powdery closer to the summits.
Arctic air will gradually attempt to rebuild across the region on Saturday but a wave of low pressure will try and establish itself into a full fledged storm along the Carolina coastline by late in the day. Incoming energy in the polar jet has the capability of further igniting this system and allowing for a period of snowfall in the Saturday night time frame. Significant snow is not a likely outcome with this storm but it bears watching as almost anything is possible in this type of set up. The masters golf tournament will finish up this Sunday but Vermont will spend most of the day in sub-freezing country with readings in the 20's during the morning and 30's during the afternoon. Snow is possible early Sunday from the aforementioned storm, but again, the chance for a big accumulation is on the low side.
The pattern does have a caboose. The jet stream will be relaxing early next week as some of the polar jet energy diminishes or retreats. Meanwhile, a weather system will gather some steam as it crosses the middle of the country Monday and begins gathering a bit of Atlantic Ocean moisture Monday night. Without the full ferocity of the polar jet, the storm will not have as much cold air to work with and will be moving decidedly slower. That said, it has the capability of becoming a rather potent east coast weather producer by Tuesday April 11 and snowfall will largely depend on the track of whatever develops. For now, better to just emphasize the potential and also understand that the system could stay south, move well north or just fall apart altogether. I would place the chances for significant snow at 30-40 percent though which isn't bad 6 or so days out.
I suggested a pattern change toward the warmer side around April 10 during the last update which obviously appears delayed but not by much. The relaxing jet stream will allow temperatures to modify by the end of the week and readings are likely going to reach the 50's and even 60's by the middle of the month. Though winter is likely to take an isolated punch or two at us after that, I am guessing that this is it as far as sustained wintry weather is concerned. Enjoy
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