Nice looking storm for the Vermont high country should yield 1-2 feet through Wednesday PM

What seemed like a garden variety event for the Vermont high country with some possible upslope-related upside has evolved into what appears to be the most exciting event for interior New England so far this season. This of course is saying alot with the three feet of snow that has already fallen in many areas. Temperatures will be marginal both Monday evening and throughout much of Tuesday but with the help of some elevation, accumulations could be very impressive and will likely give the mountains the most impressive pre-December snow-pack in recent memory.

This storm system has already left its mark on the Midwest with high winds and heavy snow and is expected to recenter itself somewhere near the New England coastline by very early Tuesday, using the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean to restrengthen one last time. The consolidation of this storms energy south of Vermont was not much of a question, but the rate at which this happens and where exactly does this happen has big implications for snowfall across the interior New England high country. Based on the information we have, the phasing, strengthening and position of this storm look fantastic. The coastal system will form near the southern New England coastline and track not far from Boston while strengthening quickly. Temperatures are certainly a bit more marginal than we would like, but that might only hold back accumulations for valley areas and really hurt the Champlain Valley which likely see only a minimal snow accumulation and could see more rain.

Mixed precipitation across the valleys and snow across above 1500 feet will begin Monday evening. As precipitation intensifies, I expect that all locations in the MRV will be snow, but the snow will be on the gloppier side in the valley. Higher up, any initial wetter snow should become drier as temperatures cool into the middle 20's and rain there through much of the rest of the storm. Snowfall rates appear the heaviest Tuesday morning and then will lessen to more occasional snow showers by Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be substantial at the summits Monday evening night but will gradually diminish as Tuesday progresses. We do have some lingering instability associated with this event and snow showers will continue through Tuesday night into Wednesday. The wind direction favors the far northern mountains for the best terrain enhanced snows but Mad River should scores some of this as well.

My guess on accumulations is this

8-14 by midday Tuesday

2-5 later Tuesday and Tuesday night

2-5 Wednesday - Wednesday night

Thus yielding an 84 hour total of 1-2 feet

Temperatures will remain relatively seasonable throughout the week and generally below freezing on the mountain. Snowfall should be pretty minimal Thursday and Friday and the next chance for precipitation comes in the form of snow thanks to a push of warmer temperatures on Saturday. This warmer push appears more subdued over the past few days but is still likely to lead to a period of above freezing temperatures later in the weekend into December 2nd and third. There remains a chance of some adverse precipitation types as well; but again, it doesn't look quite as bad as 48 hours ago.

As we progress further into December, the pattern looks just slightly favorable. We should get a decent push of colder weather sometime around December 4th and this chill should keep us in good hands through the December 7th-9th period. Teleconnection indices looked more mixed thereafter and the jet in the Pacific does show signs of tightening some with a large mid to high latitude ridge expected to form south of the Bering Sea. That's way out there though and I fully expect some fluidity in the outlook.