Lesser snow amounts Tuesday night and our next week concerns

I don't particularly enjoy playing the role of pessimist as it relates to our upcoming snowfall totals but I have to at least be a realist. NWS Burlington continues to have Winter Storm Warnings out for what they think will be 5-10 inches Tuesday evening, night and Wednesday. The storm in question however, is really struggling to get its act together and is being motored eastward by the PV and its very strong associated jet stream energy. I certainly don't expect us to get shut out completely however. Light snow has fallen throughout the day Tuesday and will intensify Tuesday evening and continue through part of the night. Given the way the storm is looking, I don't expect the moderate snow to last long enough to produce hefty accumulations but 4-8 inches is still enough to make for a powdery Wednesday. The incoming attack of brutally cold arctic air will actually wait until late in the ski day Wednesday to envelop MRG and surroundings so much of the day will feature tolerable temperatures (generally in the teens). The approaching arctic boundary is likely to bring some snow squalls and about 1-2 inches of additional snow. After that, temperatures nosedive toward zero and are closer to 10 below zero Thursday morning.

Shallow cold associated with the PV should provide stability along with the cold on both Thursday and Friday. Thursday's temperatures should reach about 5 and Friday's should get just beyond 10 with the help of a bit more February-powered sunshine. The cold will linger through Saturday but readings are expected to moderate quite dramatically late in the weekend. The possibility of some overrunning, warm advection induced snow remains sometime in between the Saturday and Sunday ski days but this remains just a possibility and is far from likely.

The buzz regarding a possible thaw has intensified over the last two days. At the very least, we should expect a period of above freezing temperatures and there's a chance that some rain accompanies that (though this remains only a chance). Having gotten that statement out of the way however, I figure it would be a good time to put the old "optimist" hat back on my head. Lets start by taking a trip down memory lane to one of the great weeks in this history of the MRG coop. 11 years ago, the 18-0 Patriots were 2 touchdown favorites against the upstart New York Giants in Superbowl 42 played on February 3rd 2008. The weather outlook at MRG during the ensuing week looked rainy and mild with the possibility of an extended thaw lasting a few days. Needless to say, it didn't look good for the Giants and it didn't look good for us powderhounds either. The NY Giants ended up winning that Superbowl however (hello 18-1) and Mad River Glen had one of the most epic weeks I can remember, procuring nearly 50 inches of powder over the span of multiple days. I don't bring these memories up to rub salt in the wounds of Patriots fans. I mean, I am sure those wounds would've healed by now and in addition, the Patriots have continued to dominate the ranks of pro-football while the Giants have sunk into futility. The weather set-up for next week however looks, in many ways similar to 2008 and during the same week after a Superbowl which will be played on the same day (February 3rd). Arctic air should remain ever-present across Quebec and will be fighting for at least partial control of New England even after completely relinquishing its grip over much of the country. There are a series of low pressure areas that are expected to impact the region next week, traveling along that boundary of very mild air over the Mid-Atlantic and continued cold to our north. The eventual position of that boundary will ultimately determine our fate but this is not a lost cause next week and could go either way or could go the way of both good news/bad news.

Beyond February 8th the outlook has taken a somewhat colder turn. The axis of cold air continues to look as if it will be positioned farther west and the jet stream in the Pacific appears as if it will gain some strength basically weakening the currently negative EPO  (data which is finally available again with the conclusion of the gov shutdown). That said, we should retain some high latitude blocking in the jet stream and this will keep arctic air from being completely scourged from lower North America. I can't promise another epic month but I am almost sure that we will not travel down the same abominable road that we did in 2017 and 2018 in February. I expect much better things. Enjoy !