Winter could be stirred up from the ashes in a potentially interesting setup late next week

Sunshine late on Tuesday and early on Wednesday was a nice needed break from the succession of cloudy days in northern Vermont. The clouds came back as of late Wednesday and unfortunately they will be with us through at least early Friday. In the short term, I wouldn't describe our upcoming weather as especially exciting or anything I would necessarily wish for but it is unique. There is a terrific weather enthusiast in southern Vermont (@vermonsterWx) who posted a atmospheric sounding, a method of looking at the vertical column of air at a specific location. That sounding illustrated a unique situation where in spite of a northwest wind at the surface, much of the air above us is getting warmer over time. This is happening thanks to a wound up storm system (the one that missed us) that is spinning ferociously offshore while occluding and pumping in some relative warmth from its northern flank. The warm air isn't the only thing being shoved in our direction from this storm, there's moisture that is also expected to impact much of northern New England and will do so via the back door. Most of Thursday will be cloudy and the radar will show rain and snow approaching Vermont from the northeast, the opposite of what we typically see when it comes to approaching weather in New England. This precipitation could fall as some snow for a period during the late afternoon but this will change to rain by nightfall as that aforementioned column of air continues to get warmer. The rain will be sporadic in nature but should continue in that fashion through early Friday.

I am sincerely hoping that we can optimize the stretch of weather between late Friday and Monday. It is all a question on the extent of cloudiness. We are expecting a weak area of high pressure to build over the state beginning late on Friday and an innocuous cold front on Sunday isn't likely to bring any significant rainfall to the state. It would certainly nice if that weak area of high pressure was strong enough to remove most of the clouds. If that were to happen we could see temperatures reach the high 50's Saturday and near 60 on Sunday. I'll hedge a little for now and just suggest some partial sunshine and low to mid 50's for the weekend with little wind.

The early part of next week looks like a continuation of the weather from the weekend. Some limited sunshine, a tolerable amount of wind and temperatures mostly in the 50's during the day. And then it gets interesting. I mean where was this pattern back in January !! The pattern that supported a bottling up of cold across Alaska has vanished and there's some evidence of a blocking ridge (depending on what set of ensembles you are inclined to believe), the EPO looks decidedly negative (relaxed Pacific pattern) and the AO appears neutralized. There are a few different scenarios that could play out given these circumstances but one way or another, a large section of the contiguous U.S. is likely to see a southward push of early spring cold weather. It will assuredly be temporary but it will not lack for excitement. The European operational and ensemble members (and to some degree the GFS ensemble member) showed northern New England taking the brunt of this with a phased storm system impacting us in the middle to later part of next week. It would be a rain to heavy snow scenario that would not be insignificant. Other simulations also indicate the ridging over Alaska but confine most of the excitement to areas out west. From a weather perspective this will be an interesting one to watch. At the very least, we are likely to see a volatile stretch of spring weather starting in the middle of next week that will likely include cold, possibly some snow, a few mild days followed perhaps by more cold.

It's probably worth one or two more blog posts at least.