Outstanding upcoming week of winter weather in Vermont even as overall outlook trends toward less cold

January 2021 has earned a place in the weather section of my memory files. After this past weekend, temperatures are almost 8 above average, yet it has barely been above freezing above 2000 feet. The high country has also procured close to 30 inches of snow but more notable is a particular form of weather that we haven't seen so far this month. No, I am not going to say it because I've been around long enough to know what that will likely do. 

Our snowy weekend is going to be followed up with more exceptional winter weather this week. The snow showers from the weekend have continued into MLK Monday. This snow will taper off and give way to a minimal amount of sunshine Monday afternoon and the clearing sky will set the stage for a more typical Vermont January overnight with temperatures falling off to near 10 degrees. A push of arctic air, the first of 2021, will approach on Tuesday and a disturbance accompanying that airmass will bring clouds and more snow to northern Vermont late on Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will actually feature decent visibility (the first such day in a while) even as the clouds increase throughout the day. It will be a light snow most of Tuesday night but as winds shift and become northwesterly early Wednesday, we'll have a small window where heavier snow showers can occur. It all adds up to a terrific ski day Wednesday with 2-5 inches of new snow and temperatures  hovering in the teens. 

It's an illustration of the benefits of a colder but not overwhelmingly arctic January weather pattern in Vermont. Aside form the obvious challenges of outdoor activities when its 10 below, the proximity of a stronger polar vortex this time of year can stabilize the lower troposphere while suppressing much of the storminess. After another break in the snow late on Wednesday that will extend into a chilly Wednesday night, a clipper system will spread clouds into Vermont and bring more light snow beginning Thursday afternoon. Not only are we likely to see another small 2-4 inch accumulation by Friday morning, but the passage of the storm will provide another extended opportunity for snow showers, Friday afternoon into Friday night. The largely unfrozen Lake Champlain should make a nice contribution as winds shift later Friday. We can expect a cold upcoming weekend and blustery on Saturday but readings will only be slightly below average (teens on the mountain). That and another few inches of new snow Saturday morning will ensure another winning weekend. 

We've been going with the theme all month that the pattern is generally favorable for snow but has been non-arctic for January standards and that appears as if it will continue. I had anticipated the coldest week of the month in late January with more arctic air on the playing field but the jet stream blocking which has been amazingly entrenched across the Labrador Sea and Hudson Strait next week has acted as a roadblock to any arctic air venturing across the pole from the Eurasian continent and this is now expected to continue. We still expect dual troughs across North America, more or less one on each coast but the stronger of the two is expected to eventually be in the Pacific Northwest, while the east coast trough is again, less arctic. The outlook for next week is thus less cold obviously but its also less dry with a storm track that could deliver for us around the 25th or 26th of the month. The -AO has been old reliable for us, especially this month but ensembles do show it weakening around the turn of the month. I don't want to see too much of this since the AO has been a vital ally fighting off what has has been a persistently agitated Pacific jet stream. 

Very little to complain about for the next week so try to enjoy it if you can !