We are about halfway through April 2021 and daytime temperatures are averaging almost 8 degrees higher than all of April 2020. The outlook for the coming 10 days does look a bit cooler relative to average and won't include another succession of 70-degree temperatures but it won't change a final outcome of a warm and dry month. The latter characteristic is of growing concern going into a summer that I already expect will be on the dry side. I don't update the blog in mid-April for dry weather however, I update for snow and a storm that could prove to bring the largest accumulating snow of the season to Sugarbush and Mad River Glen this season. And it wouldn't be right if it didn't involve another late inning northward shift.
We are obviously way out of our climatological winter and the storm in question is not working with any impressive area of polar chill. But this is an impressive storm and a supportive, very blocked weather pattern and we have a northward shift so its game on. As of Wednesday (April 14), we already have a closed upper level low slowly advancing eastward out of the western Great Lakes and now feel very good about an infusion of sub-tropical synoptic energy early Thursday. Temperatures will still be mild for most of Thursday across the MRV and all of Vermont for that matter but as the storm phases and deepens throughout the day, it will manufacture its own kind of cold air, the kind that allows it to snow in mid-April. So, we can expect rain during the afternoon and evening hours and then start seeing some snow, first at high elevations and eventually even at lower elevations during the evening hours, just as it begins to get dark. The best zone for snow is in Vermont but still appears to be in central and southern Vermont and into the Berkshires for now. This favorable snow zone however has been shifting north with each succession of model runs however and the MRV high country is only about 40-50 miles away from the bullseye zone as of Wednesday afternoon.
Because the cold air is very "storm manufactured", the snow will be very gloppy in nature, even at high elevations. Atmospheric cross-sections reveal very little change in temperature with elevation but there will be some (heck there is always some). Taking some of the high res data at face value would indicate that temperatures Friday morning are 32-34 below 1500 feet and maybe 28-30 above 3000 feet. So, we could at least get close to some drier snow if one can themselves up toward the summits. The snow Thursday night into Friday is no joke however. Can you believe this could be the biggest accumulating snow event of the season ? I will never not welcome such a storm but there's a little SMH in all this since we just saw one of the earliest Rt 108 >Smuggs opening in a while and are currently working with very limited open skiable terrain in VT. Mother nature doesn't care however, it will do what it wants to do. In valley locations up to the base of MRG this appears to be a 4-12 inch event, but above 2000 feet, 10-20 inches is looking more and more likely. In this best "snow zone" across central and southern Vermont, upwards of 2 feet or more appears likely in some of the high elevation areas. The snow is expected to be heaviest early Friday morning and taper off to snow showers or snow flurries by late Friday afternoon.
The storm will also put an end to a rather impressive run of mild weather that we saw through much of early April. The weather pattern appears to be a bit more unsettled generally and more seasonable on the temperatures side. This essentially means a bunch of sub-freezing nights and above freezing days. The upcoming storm will help with our precipitation deficit and models indicate that we could sea a bit more in the next 10 days though there are no glaring indications of heavy rain or snow after Friday.
Enjoy the spring snow
58 comments:
It seems every big storm has miss us to the south this year. How can you explain that Josh?
Is it badluck or some tendency with the global warming or other stuff?
Those of us in southern Vermont have a different viewpoint - let it snow!
Not to mention seemingly every small storm as well... Gotta be a record for negative variance both in size and frequency, February not withstanding.
What do you mean? Stowe and Jay are well past everyone as usually.
Great to see another post! Let it SNOW!
What is your snowfall total forecast for this storm (21-22-23 april) Josh? We need you back in the blog! thanks!
peace,
pog
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My husband divorced me and went after his ex and left me heart broken for 2 years. I have been playing the lottery for some years before I got married and I have never won any big amount. I continued to play the lottery but I couldn't win more than $500 dollars until I was introduced to Dr Amber that is a strong Haiti spell caster. I had a chat with him via +18084815132 telling him what a mess my life has become. He encouraged and promised to get my man back for me and to help me win the lottery. There were specific instructions that was passed to me by him which I adhered to as he prepared the spell for me that brought back my husband within 36 hours and he gave me some sure numbers to play the lottery game. I used the numbers to play the lottery and I won $10,000,000 million dollars and all this happened within a week after I knew Dr Amber. It doesn't matter what you are going through in life Dr Amber is here to help. You can visit his website: amberlottotemple.com
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My name is Sandy Doyle, I am a 58 years old grandmother, I worked in a warehouse for years and I love playing lottery games but always fail. I was researching online one evening when I saw random Testimonies of people appreciating lord Bubuza for giving them the right lottery winning numbers after casting a spell. I spoke to him on WhatsApp: +1 951 442 2214 for help and he said, I will cast a spell and the lottery winning numbers will be revealed to me by my gods(Oracle). I provided his requirements to cast the spell. After casting the spell, He sent me some numbers and said PLAY WITHOUT FEAR. I bought 2 lottery scratch cards in a local shop and played. Behold on I won £1,000,000 pounds on the first one but I didn’t believe so I scratch other ticket and behold I won £10,000,000 pounds again. I immediately retired from my warehouse job when my winning amount hit my account. Lord Bubuza is a great SEER and has changed my financial status. Contact him via WhatsApp:+1 951 442 2214 or call: +1 507 400 0072 or email: lordbubuzamiraclework @ hotmail . com ....
Hello everyone i am very glad shearing this my amazing testimony on how Priest Bacasim brought back my husband, i have been living in hell for the past 2 years since my husband left me, i saw a testimony of a woman online on how Prist Bacasim restore her husband back to her, so i decided to also contact him through his email and i explain everything to him and he promised he will bring back my husband in 48hrs, at first i didn't believe it 100% but i have no choice, he told me what i should do which i did, on a faithful morning as i was preparing for work i saw my husband in front of the house i was so surprised, he started begging me to forgive him, i had to forgive him because i love him so much and now we are living happily together. I also want you out there that is also facing the same marital problem to also contact him for help and i believe he will help you. here are his contacts. Email pristbacasim2000 @ gmail.com or WhatsApp him on +15202103368
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