The forecast for Monday has deteriorated to trash which is a rude interruption to what could have been a nice early December 7-day stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. All indications are that this will be a tough month for winter-weather lovers in New England. We've talked about all the feedbacks working against us and when you add in a prevailing + Arctic Oscillation (AO) index and a positive Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) the results will be predictably bad. We continue to see some very cold air positioned over Alaska and much of northern and central Canada but its a challenge to put this chill to good use in December, and Monday's torch is a perfect end-result example.
We still have a wintry weekend to look forward to. Sunshine and near 10-degree temperatures early on Saturday will give way to some clouds. The snow from our benign weekend disturbance is not expected to arrive until after the ski day and in the evening. Northern Vermont appears to be the best area of accumulating snow in this period and this appears to be a fluffy 1-3 inch situation for MRG. Models are indicating a few clouds for Sunday so perhaps not total bluebird, but we can expect a decent dose of sun during the day and the warm advection clouds are not expected until after it gets dark.
Most of the east coast is now expected to get a torch on Monday with soaring temperatures. Cold will linger for a few hours in Vermont under clouds but the inversion is expected to mix out during the afternoon allowing temperatures to soar into the 40's. A short period of rain is likely at some time late in the day before a cold front dries it out and cools it down. Sub-freezing temperatures are then expected to prevail for most of the rest of the week (through Friday) but can we get some snow before the weather pattern fundamentals turn ugly around December 10th.
We have a couple of models indicating most of the moisture associated with a weather system in the middle of next week will be south of Vermont. We also have the American GFS model showing a more direct hit and decent dose of snow. Mix that data all together and you get an appetizing model consensus but I have some concerns about whether this system can actually organize itself enough to send moisture deep into interior New England. We have a very healthy baroclinic environment along the eastern seaboard working for us so the situation is certainly worth monitoring.
The period between December 10th and the Winter Solstice does not look good as I mentioned. A Friday afternoon run of the European Operational model did bring in a decent area of cold late next weekend into Monday December 13th following a wintry mix-type event on the weekend of December 11th-12th. This was not supported by the corresponding run of the Euro Ensemble so though I am inclined to generally disregard it, the model did illustrate how cold air in nearby Canada might successfully make an intrusion in spite of the lousy weather pattern fundamentals. The risk of a multi-day thaw and rain however is pretty high in this time frame and this would be the point I would want to underscore before leaving you all for the weekend. Enjoy the wintry temps while we have them !
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