We have a decent January weather pattern in front of us with plenty of cold weather. The big block in the Chukchi Sea (above the Bering Sea) is close to peaking and is the mechanism forcing arctic air southward and over a more expansive area of North America. Meanwhile the Pacific is is expected to remain mostly cooperative marking a big change from prevailing conditions over recent winters. I am not yet convinced it will stay this way for the duration of the winter but I'll take what I can get and wait, like the rest of us, for this weather pattern to pay us some real dividends in the form of natural snow.
Though the surge of milder temperature will mostly fail to bring temperatures significantly above freezing Wednesday, there is a small amount of moisture expected to skim the state and bring some mixed precipitation (snow or freezing rain) for a few hours in the afternoon. Readings will fall back into the 20's Thursday as we await the gradual formation and approach of our fast-moving late week winter storm. Over the last few days, model data has shifted the storm south and east out over the ocean and east of Cape Cod. Much of the heaviest snow in such a scenario would be confined to coastal areas. All that said, I expect models to begin showing a more amplified system and to shift the track further north and west over the next 48 hours. It is just very difficult to predict how much and whether this turns out to be the critical difference in bringing at least some heavy snowfall to northern Vermont. As mentioned in the last post, the very warm water along the Mid Atlantic and New England coastline is capable of making a big and last minute impact on the forecast and eventual track of this storm. Within the next day or two, we will find out whether this will play out as such. Either way, this is a fast moving storm with a another New England forecaster calling it a "thump, dump and run" situation (got to give @eweather credit for that one). The snow if it happens, will be tapering too snow showers and flurries by later Friday with clearing expected by Saturday.
In addition to the potential storm, the forecast over the next week will consist of rapidly changing weather with almost every day featuring differences from its respective yesterday. Saturday will be cold (teens) and begin blustery with flurries and calmer with sunshine. Sunday will cloudier and not nearly as chilly with temperatures approaching the freezing mark. There's moisture accompanying the big surge of milder temperatures on Sunday and this means the chances for rain and freezing rain will increase as the day progresses. Whatever does fall late this weekend will make another quick exit as a strong surge of arctic cold will take it's biggest swing at New England so far this winter. Temperatures will begin to fall Monday, a day likely to feature snow showers and maybe a snows squall ahead of a boundary of very intense chill. Much of Tuesday will feature readings in the single numbers while Tuesday night features readings of close to 10 below.
As next week continues to progress, we can expect some of the most intense cold to retreat into eastern Canada temporarily. At the same time, the overall weather pattern, which has been very unsettled and snowy in the ski areas out west in recent weeks, will shift with a jet stream ridge building in those same locations. This configuration will focus more of the weather action on the eastern part of North America and opens the door for more snowfall opportunities in New England. If this aforementioned ridge migrates into Alaska as some of the ensembles are suggesting, very cold weather could return beginning around the time of the January 15th-16th weekend. Our recent bad luck will have to reach epic proportions to get through the next few weeks without some decent snow but when bad luck happens, it happens all at once and doesn't take prisoners.
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