The series of elevation sensitive snow storms we've received over the last several weeks has made for some great early season skiing in northern Vermont, but we've also earned ourselves a trophy for featuring some of the best snow in the whole country. Yeah a few spots in the west might argue but I am selfish and I want the crown since we don't get it often. We've also got challenges ahead while the holiday outlook looks very good in the southern and central Rocky Mountains.
Light snow showers and wintry temperatures can be expected Tuesday night into Wednesday across the northern Vermont high country. It will also be a little blustery through Wednesday. If you enjoy a good wintry bluebird day with lighter winds, I got one for you on Thursday, a day that is likely to feature some of the best visibility of the month with afternoon temperatures in the 20's. The shorter term outlook beyond Thursday doesn't feature any rainfall issues, but I am concerned that we get hit with a Pacific torch on Friday. I always get the sense we get more of these days during El Nino years and they are characterized by warm, windy conditions with some sunshine along with temperatures well into the 40's. We are specifically exposed to warmth on days such as this because of the shape of our local topography and the wind will eat away at recent snowfalls particularly in exposed areas and in the warmer valley locations. The weekend outlook should feature slightly cooler and certainly less windy weather with afternoon temperatures in the 30's and some decent periods of sunshine.
Though there will be some colder interludes over the next 10 days or so, arctic air across North America will be in retreat mode and temperatures across Canada will be exceptionally warm to finish out 2023. Arctic air is a required element for below normal temperatures in Vermont by late December so without it, we are pretty much guaranteed to see milder than average temperatures for the rest of the year, much like our northern neighbors. So far however, there are no glaring indications of an extended and severe thaw. The pattern also supports the presence of storms especially as we approach the holiday, more on that below. Our next weather event is likely to occur or not occur after the upcoming weekend as an El Nino fueled southern streamer gathers moisture and tries to head up the eastern seaboard. There won't be a lot of arctic air to work with, but there are indications of a minimal amount of chill entering the forecast picture around the time of Tuesday. We need the track of this storm to cooperate which seems probable and we also need this storm to entrain some of that colder air which may be a more difficult ask. The storm could also just stay out over the ocean. Sometimes in these situations in best to place your money on the rinse and repeat scenario of another elevation sensitive event which is certainly a possible outcome.
The aforementioned warmth across Canada is indicated to focus on eastern Canada as we approach the holiday. Storminess in the Pacific is expected to really attack California and the southern and central Rockies bringing rain and mountain snowfall which is great news for skiers there. That storminess, some of it anyway is likely to cross the country and impact the northeast. With cold air in short supply this will mean rain for coastal areas but interior areas are capable of pulling off more elevation sensitive snowfall much like we have been. It's not an ideal setup, but certainly are capable of scoring a touchdown. I am hoping we can push the AO back into negative terrirtory for the new year, but I don't see much arctic help before that.
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