Powerful storm has the potential to bring a foot or more of snow to the northern high country Sunday into Monday

 Cloudy, damp and rainy weather continue plague the MRV and rainy part of this picture is expected to be with us through Wednesday night. The rain is expected to fall heavy enough Wednesday evening to total upwards of an inch though temperatures will stay cold enough to slow the continued melting of snow where it continues to exist across the high country. Boundary layer conditions would support a changeover to snow during the day Thursday if precipitation were to continue. Though models have teased such an outcome sporadically, there's been a pretty clear consensus that it dries out Thursday with the sun even making an appearance later in the day. The decrease in cloudiness will allow the mud to freeze Friday morning before another round of 40-50 degree temperatures and a welcomed full day of sunshine brings the mud right back. 

Sunshine is now expected to return for the first part of Saturday which appears to be an excellent and very typical early spring day in Vermont (much like Friday appears to be) with lots of 20's in the morning and 40's in the afternoon. Clouds from our incoming storm system arrive for the back half of the day but winds should stay tame and precipitation won't arrive until sometime Saturday evening or at night. 

The update on our late weekend storm goes as follows. Snowfall prospects really hinge on the familiar question of how quickly and efficiently this storm can transfer its energy to the coastline early on Sunday. The low pressure center in question is a formidable one but is tracking right at us with minimal amounts of antecedent cold air support. If we can make an ideal coastal transaction we will be snowing quite heavily across the high country early on Sunday and the snow would continue throughout the day, through Sunday night with snow showers continuing into Monday. Accumulations could total our best of the season by Monday evening and yes that means upwards of 2 feet. I continue to feel as if this is a very viable scenario. That said, models moved somewhat away from the "ideal" coastal transfer and it would allow for a longer period of wet weather Saturday night and early Sunday. This is a dynamic enough storm however to produce for us even with a less than ideal scenario. Midday models on Wednesday are struggling to produce a well defined coastal low near Cape Cod midday Sunday, but a coastal low ultimately does form, strengthen and slow in speed. Not only would a change to snow occur across the high country, snow consistency would become ideal with temperatures dropping into the 20's Sunday night into early Monday. Right now, I would put my snowfall spectrum in the 10-30 inch category. 

The long range also continues to show promise. The outlook for the early part of next week consists of the snow showers I spoke of Monday, mostly sub-freezing weather Tuesday and a more gradual moderation in temperatures for the end of the week. It still appears more spring-like Wednesday to Friday, but more recent simulations have kept temperatures a little closer to climatology. 

Teleconnections also continue to favor a turn toward colder weather after St Patrick's Day thanks to the combined influence of a more favorable Pacific and a jet stream in western North America that will push polar air in our direction. Snowfall during the March 18-22 period appears likely in some form.