Snow showers will continue with a final round Saturday afternoon while Monday weather continues to appear outstanding

It never sat right with me that Mad River Glen hadn't recorded the two-foot April storm that seem to occur so frequently in March. Climatologically speaking, it feels like something that should happen once or twice a decade and yet it hasn't in the 20 years I've been doing this, that is until the last two days. It's a challenge to overcome the power of the April sun angle, which, even with temperatures remaining below freezing on the mountain, managed to make for some wetter snow conditions below 2,500 feet. I thought we might perform better Friday with the snow shower machine, but the disorganized remnants of our recent storm's moist conveyor targeted the Adirondacks and only grazed parts of the Green Mountains. Still this is expected to continue for a time Friday night, break for a bit early Saturday and then more snow showers, some heavy, appear likely Saturday afternoon. Temperatures on Saturday will behave much as they did Friday. Sunday is expected to be a little warmer with the snow having departed and sunshine making a late day appearance. When will the corn show up ? That typically happens after the wet snow gets a chance to freeze with a chilly overnight and subsequently softens to corn with a warm day. Very good chance that happens on Monday, but parts of the mountain could see that on Sunday as well. 

Solar eclipse Monday just looks outstanding and we are almost figuratively and literally in the clear. 25-30 degree temperatures in the morning will become 50-55 degree temperatures during the afternoon and almost 60 in valley locations. We should see clear blue skies in the morning and light winds. 3 computer simulations and one package of statistical guidance suggests that sunshine continues through evening. 1 computer model simulations brings a thin layer of high cloudiness to Vermont Monday afternoon. Not every run of this European model has suggested this outcome, but it was suggested Friday afternoon so I don't want to mislead the reader and guarantee good viewing. The potential clouds are the innocuous high cirrus kind, blowing off the top of a rainy weather system in Wisconsin. They would have to power jet stream ridge to our west which doesn't seem likely to me yet weather will always manage to suprise you. 

Following our eclipse day we will take another big step into spring. Cool high pressure will slip in from for the north after Tuesday, putting a stop to the 50-60 degree weather. That said, we are looking at a lot of above freezing temperatures and a surge of warmth and potentially heavy rain Thursday night into Friday (April 11-12). We will have to keep an eye on this one for flooding because the mountains have some deep late season snow pack and this system late next week is capable of bringing high winds and higher dewpoints with it. Cooler weather is being advertised on the ensembles after April 13 and that should include some below freezing overnights even if our days continue to see a mix of 40's and 50's. 

Total accumulations appear lower for the northern Vermont high country, but hard to complain about 20-40 inches and a promising solar eclipse outlook !

Our April winter storm forecast is in need of an update and our solar eclipse forecast always needs attention and I will work to provide both. Not sure there has ever been a period in early April where weather intel is in such high demand in Vermont. 

Our storm has been coming together early Wednesday as is expected to track in between Cape Cod and Boston Thursday evening. That's a damn good trajectory for any winter storm and when this is combined with the expected slow speed of this weather system, snow totals in the northern Vermont high country continue to have an extraordinary ceiling. All that good stuff said, some complicating issues have emerged to keep the loftiest of my expectations in check. 

The first concern is a tiny warm layer that high resolution models are projecting will impact precipitation type Wednesday evening. The layer of above freezing is way up above 10,000 feet and it remains pretty small, small enough in fact that the snow could fall right through it so long as its falling at a decent rate. This feature is only present for a small part of the storm and is expected to be gone by around midnight Thursday. Snow, sleet and near 32 degree temperatures will allow for a messy few inches of base layer accumulations before snow begins falling heavily early Thursday morning with temperatures dropping into the high 20's. The snow is expected to continue for much of the day Thursday, falling heavily at times with gusty northeast winds. The base layer of sleet with drier snow falling on top should be pretty ideal for afternoon skiing. 

The 2nd concern is less concern and more of a limiting factor. The initial Great Lakes low proved to be a formidable storm and is expected to compete with the slow moving coastal low for dominance Thursday and Thursday night. Ultimately we continue to expect a consolidated system to take shape, albeit an occluded one, in the Gulf of Maine Friday, but this process is now expected to take a little longer than I initially anticipated. With the remnants of the initial low pressure area expected to slowly sag southeast over Pennsylvania Thursday, the storm will have a more elongated shape and this makes me a little nervous about any assumption that we will just sit in the moist conveyor for two days and easily procure 50 inches. Regardless, I still have some very optimistic assumptions and continue to think that we sit in an ideal area for continuous elevation snowfall Thursday night, Friday and early Saturday. The sleet Wednesday evening combined with some less giddy expectations Thursday night, Friday and Saturday lower my total snowfall accumulations yet this remains the best snow event I've seen in April in the 20 years of doing this. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday evening/night valley: Snow/sleet 3-6 dense accumulation by morning

Wednesday evening night mountains: Snow/sleet 4-8 dense accumulation by morning

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow with 3-6 wet inches

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy, drier accumulation above 2,500 feet 6-12 inches

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-2 inches

Thursday night mountain: Occasional snow 3-6 inches 

Friday day valley: Periodic snow showers as existing snow melts. Not much accumulation

Friday day mountains: Occasional snow with another 3-6 inches and powdery above 2,500 feet

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 4-8 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas: Snow/sleet late Wednesday, thump snow early Thursday and snow melt Friday and Saturday even as mountains continue to add to totals. 8-16" expected total

Mountains: Snow/sleet early, more powdery above 2,500 feet Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 20-40" expected over the 3-4 days.

Solar eclipse Monday still looks pretty good. Sunshine is expected to return for Sunday and clear skies Sunday night should allow temperatures to dip into the 20's Monday morning. The morning hours on the 8th are expected to be nearly cloudless. During the afternoon hours there's some risk that a decaying area of clouds can have a presence but a total overcast appears unlikely. It looks like an outstanding for outdoor activities with temperatures in the low 50's and low winds.

Over 30 inches of high elevation snow Wednesday through early Saturday and a high risk of sunshine on April 8

When it comes to April weather conditions in Vermont, I usually don't get a chance to say a lot of nice things. Snow-melt, mud, clouds, wind, low visibility and sometimes a combination of all 5 are often a major part of our outlook. With that in mind, I will put out the disclaimer that this particular forecast is no April Fool's joke and might be the best I have given for any part of Vermont during this slog of a spring month. There's a lot at stake with our late-blooming ski season still going strong and a full solar eclipse expected on April 8th, but we appear to be ready with our A-game so lets go ! 

Our upcoming winter storm has moved out into the central plains Monday. Warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico is feeding a strengthening low pressure area as it makes its initial push toward the western Great Lakes by Tuesday. This primary low pressure area is formidable and will bring both wind and accumulating snow to much of Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile, cold dry is in the process of wedging itself underneath a Davis Strait jet stream block. This key feature will help ultimately reconfigure the weather map in a very winter-friendly way for northern Vermont. The initial Great Lakes low pressure area will occlude and a new coastal low quickly intensify somewhere in the vicinity of the Delaware Bay by Wednesday and proceed northeastward from there. Snow will develop by midday Wednesday and be heavy enough to accumulate, even below 1,000 feet. 

I don't want to kid myself or the reader. Early April is early April and multiple feet of powdery snow in the river valleys is a very difficult ask. Wet snowfall will be substantial however and could again bring with it some power outage risk  during the "thump" portion of this upcoming storm late Wednesday and Wednesday night. Higher elevations will also see wetter snowfall late on Wednesday, but conditions appear to be cold enough at high elevations first and lower basebox elevations later to support a drier snowfall, especially as it gets darker Wednesday evening. Accumulations will be substantial in this early portion of the storm, exceeding a foot on the mountains and reaching the 6-12 category in lower elevations.

Late Wednesday is just the beginning. The elevation sensitive and colder part of our programming begins Thursday and it is an impressive setup. The coastal low near Cape Cod will continue to push northeast, but at a very, very low speed. This will allow the upper air support and decayed occluded Midwest low to catch up and allow for a more consolidated east coast storm by midday Thursday. Even as valley locations continue to see occasional bursts of wet snowfall with above-freezing temperatures, the mountains will be receiving heavier, even drier snowfall with colder temperatures. Valley areas are unlikely to see more than a foot of snow on the ground at any point during the storm even as snowfall amounts approach 2 feet at and above 3000 feet by late Thursday. Furthermore, the very slow-footed personality of this storm will allow snowfall to keep going and going. Thursday night, Friday, Friday night into early Saturday the snow will continue to fall, finally tapering off with some sun potentially returning for late Saturday which is just incredible. Snowfall, which again, is unlikely to ever produce a snow cover of more than a foot in valley areas, is likely to exceed 30 inches at 3,000 feet with much of it relatively dry and falling over a span of 3 days. As one ski's toward the base on Thursday, Friday and Saturday, snow consistency is certainly subject to change, but I don't expect temperatures on the upper mountain to reach above-freezing levels in a material way until Sunday. Here is my more detailed view of snow accumulations with valley locations defined as areas as areas near the Waitsfield covered bridge and mountains defined as areas around 3,000 feet. I'll leave it to the reader to extrapolate on the in-between. 

Snow Outlook 

Wednesday afternoon valley: Late Day snow wet 2-4 " 

Wednesday afternoon mountain: Late Day snow wet 3-6" 

Wednesday night valley: Thump wet 4-8" 

Wednesday night mountain: Thump powder/some wet 6-12" 

Thursday day valley: Occasional snow 1-3" wet inches with melting

Thursday day mountain: Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Thursday night valley: Occasional snow 1-3 wet inches 

Thursday night mountain:Snow, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 6-12" 

Friday day valley: Snow showers, little to no accumulations, melting and mud 

Friday day mountains: Snow showers, sometimes heavy and a more powdery 3-6" 

Friday night into Saturday valley: Flurries and snow showers, just a light accumulation. 

Friday night into Saturday mountains: Snow Showers and another 3-6 inches. 

Totals: 

Valley areas a very wet 8-16 with never more than a foot on the ground 

Mountains: Some wet snow early, more powder Thursday, Friday and into early Saturday with 27-54 inches.

And I won't neglect the promising solar eclipse outlook for April 8. We are checking a lot of the right boxes, the most important of which is a well defined jet stream ridge axis that is setting up to our west. The conglomeration of clouds and unsettled weather is finally expected to push off shore by Sunday allowing for a nearly full day of sunshine and warmer afternoon temperatures. Monday has the potential to be even better atop some deep snow cover across the high country. Temperatures on Monday should approach 50 and exceed that in valley areas with plenty of sunshine to start the day. My only concern is the lack of unsettled weather in the south which does keep the door open a tad for a pesky jet disturbance to bring some scattered cloudiness to northern New England during the afternoon. If I had to forecast cloudcover in percentages (with 100 percent being overcast) right now, I would put Monday at no more than 30 percent which is pretty darn good this time of the year. I would rather be us than areas in the path of the solar eclipse to our south and west.