Wet snow New Year's Day becomes drier Thursday/Friday with a beautiful weather pattern ready and waiting for 2025

Soggy and rainy conditions finally enveloped Vermont on Monday, but it's a little easier to swallow when you look out to the horizon to see what's coming. December is a notoriously erratic month and though this one was colder than recent versions, it still brought us its on version of ups and downs. A more westerly flow of mild and drier Pacific air will give us clouds and some limited sun on New Year's Eve and with the exception of the higher summits, temperatures should remain primarily above freezing. As opposed to the inversions we've seen in recent days where temperatures have actually been higher in elevated areas as opposed to valley areas, Tuesday will be very much the reverse with a well mixed atmosphere bringing readings well into the 40's in valley areas while temps are close to freezing above 3,000 feet. 

 Raise a glass to 2025 and make sure you raise a glass to the incoming weather that is poised to accompany it. Like a picturesque version of fundamental support for persistent cold out through the middle of January and I'll talk about that a few paragraphs down. New Year's itself has an interesting storm and one we could certainly use. Very marginal temperatures will persist over low lying areas, but readings will be colder over higher elevations and will thus support a very terrain sensitive event on New Year's Day and in the days that follow where lingering moisture will support occasional snowfall through January 3rd. Mixed precipitation, rain in the lowest elevations and wet snow across the mountains begins early Wednesday morning. By dawn, I think the ski areas will see primarily a wet snowfall with a continuation of mixed precipitation in valley areas. If precipitation becomes heavy, and there are indications it might as the storm in question continues to strengthen, it will help cool temperatures, change all precipitation to snow and allow the material accumulations to begin across country. This is a healthy looking storm that will deepen nicely as it approaches the southeast Maine coastline. More importantly, it will fully mature and slow underneath the jet stream blocking in Canada. Wet snow will total 4-8 inches on Wednesday and this snow will become drier Wednesday night and continue into Thursday when an additional 4-8 inches should be expected with lesser amounts in valley areas. And it will go on still with an additional 3-6 inches falling between Thursday night into the ski day Friday. I will mention that the flow setup between Wednesday night in Friday is more westerly than northwesterly favoring the corridor from Smuggs north to Jay where I would expect a 3 day total of over 2 feet. The 11-22 inches I expect for us over these 3 days is very much needed and certainly will have us headed in the right direction into a very chilly weather pattern. 

In the shorter term, bitterly cold temperatures will very slowly establish itself over Vermont. Readings will remain in the 20's over MRG Thursday, high teens Friday and mid teens for the weekend. Sunshine should make some limited appearances this weekend but some snowfall is indicated with a favorable flow of air over Lake Champlain. Completely reasonable to expect some additional cold powdery inches for the weekend. 

The next organized weather system is expected to make an impact early next week and the weather universe is buzzing because of the potential snowfall in the big east coast cities.  The hypothetical storm appears different on almost every model run and there are a lot of variables including a push of milder air well to our south and a polar jet.  Regardless of this uncertainly, I am reasonably comfortable calling this a snow or no situation for us in northern Vermont with the impact being somewhere in the January 6th to Jan 8 time frame and probably 2 of those 3 days. The coldest weather of the week appears to be at the end and the most anomalous and frigid temperatures could well stay to our west through January 10th. In spite of that, i would not expect readings to spend too much time above the 20 degree mark. 

I would buy the postcard if someone put this weather pattern on one. Just an exceptional jet stream structure on January 10th with the jet attaining this omega structure over Alaska and extending well north into the arctic circle. More ridging over the Davis strait and a nice quiet Pacific. Outbreaks of sub-zero temperatures and continuous opportunities for snowfall should be expected through January 15th and quite possibly beyond. You can get a rogue bad amplifier with a storm ingesting some steriod over the plains and maturing early and taking an inland track. I put this stuff out there early because every time I don't in a pattern like this it will find a way to happen just to make me look bad.  Enjoy the New Year and don't let the mud get you down.

 

Bad storm track removes the New England "cold hole" and brings rain before terrific looking start to 2025

 I've seen a few good "cold holes" over the last 15 or so years across North America. Most recently they've been occurring out west over deep snow cover in the darkest months of the year such as December or January and out of the way of the jet stream. They happen in New England as well under many of these same circumstances with the critical contributing factors being very little wind, deep snow and low sun angle. Though the shallow layer of cold is decaying and might look especially impressive on a weather map, there simply aren't enough daylight hours to burn through the inversion. It's not cold enough to snow because of the air just above Mt Washington, but it's cold enough at the surface for sub-zero temps and in the case of the most recent week, a rather excellent week for skiers following the snow on Christmas Eve. 

The inversion fell apart early Saturday over the Champlain Valley and is slowly doing so over the rest of Vermont and unfortunately temperatures are supporting rainfall for Sunday into early Monday and quite decisively. Models indicate a period of light rain perhaps as early as very late in the ski day Sunday and then the question becomes how heavy the rain might get Sunday night into early Monday. Most of the data I've seen suggests less than a half an inch with the heaviest rain staying to our south and east. A higher resolution run of a shorter term model did show over an inch Sunday night though it remains the outlier not the consensus. Temperatures are again, not expected to get excessive while the rain is falling, hovering around the 40 degree mark through early Monday. Westerly winds late Monday and into Tuesday (New Year's Eve) will likely bring the mildest period we will see in the period between late last week and mid January. 

Now on to the better stuff. Cold air will remain in short supply as the next and very legitimate storm system approaches in the last hours of 2024 yet I think we can squeeze a decent elevation sensitive event out of the whole deal. We need the storm to track favorably and the storm to strengthen in such a way that it can manufacture an environment conducive for snowfall. We've seen a bunch of these events in recent years and they are quite common later in the winter season. Surface temperatures in valley areas are indicated to be a bit too warm initially to support snowfall and I am not so sure they support snow over the mountains until precipitation becomes heavier early New Year's Day. As the day progresses however, atmospheric cross sections look better and more supportive of snow. I want to be careful not to get too giddy about it since models aren't projecting hefty amounts of snowfall, I have to show some respect for the data. That said, this is certainly a setup that could produce 1-2 feet above 2,000 feet while valley areas are relegated to a few gloppy inches. By later New Year's Day into the evening and then into Jan 2, temps might get cold enough for snow conditions to dry out some on the highest areas of the mountain. 

The New Year's elevation event marks the end of mild threat with the ridge in eastern Canada forecast to weaken and the fundamentals increasingly supporting colder weather. We won't see excessive temperatures through the first full weekend of the month/year and this should aside from keeping the comfort level in check on what should be some windy days, also keep the snow threat alive from weaker disturbances and Lake Champlain enhancement. Models/ensembles have been signaling a potential significant event between Jan 6-8. 

The first half and I hope more of January just looks terrific. Anchored by my favorite tag team of negative EPO and AO indices where the jet in the Pacific appears tranquil and then more blocked in the arctic regions. The risk in January is that storm track shifts too far south but with the Great Lakes and Lake Champlain remaining mostly ice-free, I wouldn't have my money on a dry cold.

Rain and a mild stretch of weather appear unavoidable late on Dec 29th and into Dec 30 and some New Year's Day heavy snow potential

Hope everyone enjoyed their Christmas holiday. Boxing day started below zero in many places in spite of the fact that the mid level environment barely supports snow with the large upper level ridge now fully established in eastern Canada. It makes for a very inverted temperature profile, a very stable environment, and without the problem of having low clouds to contend with, the bluebird plate special is served through Friday with temperatures staying below the freezing mark for the most part. 

Unfortunately, we won't make it through the entirety of this eastern North American warm stretch without some thawing and some rain. Much of the mild weather has been focused on areas both west and north of Vermont strangely and a dose of this mild weather appears headed for  us during the last 60 or so hours of 2024. There's a bit more to this story and I will try and tell it the best I can. 

Clouds are expected to make a return for the Saturday portion of the weekend. As expected, precipitation isn't expected for the 28th, wind is expected to remain light and temperatures are not expected to exceed the mid-thirties. So long as above-freezing temperatures aren't accompanied by higher dewpoints, the impact is relatively limited. Low pressure is expected to spin its way through the eastern Great Lakes and eventually deep into Quebec on Monday. This track is obviously less than ideal and although low level cold air is expected to resist the scouring for a time, it is mostly expected to give way as precipitation arrives Sunday afternoon, mostly in the form of rain. It appears temperatures will hover around 40 while the rain is falling Sunday evening and night and its certainly my hope that most of  it is over and done with Monday morning. At this point westerly winds are expected to push mild Pacific air into the region making for a mild 2nd to last day of 2024 though it remains somewhat uncertain whether we can entirely clear all the precipitation away from Vermont. 

And then hopefully the fun begins. A second and stronger weather system is expected to make a Rocky Mountain exit late on December 30th and advance east-northeast toward New England. Cold air is in very short supply in eastern North America, but this stronger area of low pressure is expected to track more favorably and make an eventual transfer to the Atlantic Coast before potentially bombing in the Gulf of Maine. Temperatures will remain unquestionably mild on New Year's Eve, hanging out near 40 through much of the afternoon before precipitation chances increase during the evening. Temperature profile appear like they might support a wet snowfall across the high country during the last few hours of 2024 while mixed precipitation or rainfall occurs at lower elevation. As time progresses and when, if the storm bombs, snowfall is favored at all elevations and could be very significant above 1500 feet making for a big start to 2025. There continues to be some variation in the model simulations but a few of the ensemble aggregates are bullish on the bombing which is a pretty crucial question given the lack of cold air support. 

Good fundamental support remains for an excellent stretch of weather for the first 2 weeks of 2025. Arctic air will need some time to reestablish itself over the continent and return New England to below normal temperatures, but January is a month where it doesn't take much to at least make it sub-freezing and we should see a good stretch of that in the aftermath of whatever happens on New Year's Day. Split flow in the Pacific is very encouraging for those hoping for more opportunities at storms and my guess is that we see another opportunity at a good storm before an arctic envelopment sometime in the first full week of January (Jan 6-10).

All kinds of good news for skiers that includes both snow in the short term and intrigue around the New Year and beyond

It's been a warm year in Vermont. Not only has every month been above normal up until now, the winter of 2023-24 saw about one subzero morning. Temperatures early Monday, which are as low as -10 in some areas, are easily the coldest of the calendar year and the month has an outside chance of seeing the coldest average temperatures of the year, exceeding that of January which is a statistical rarity. I love a cold bluebird day with a low wind so I am a little bummed to seek clouds making a rapid eastward advance and spoil a portion of this. Still, we expect temperatures to moderate and reach the teens in spite of less sunshine and those clouds are poised to bring snow Monday evening into early Tuesday. We tend to do well on these type of events, even with a lack of moisture, and my expectation is for a fluffy, low density 4-7 inches of by mid morning Tuesday. 

The rest of the holiday week is expected to be dry and just like we had hoped, the lack of strong ambient flow combined with the low December sun angle will slow the temperature moderation even as arctic air makes its North American retreat. We can also expect decent amounts of sunshine along the relatively calm winds and temperatures should generally stay below freezing except for maybe an hour this coming Friday. Not bad considering much of central Canada, including areas deep in the remote north will see a round of thawing temperatures. 

This home plate umpire is giving the safe sign for the last full weekend of 2024 with some of the same themes from the holiday week, carrying over to the weekend. Temperatures will continue to moderate, very slowly with readings touching or exceeding the freezing mark only during the afternoons. An increase in cloudiness should keep Saturday night considerably milder than the 7 days prior to it. It's a close call as to whether or not precipitation makes it to Vermont by Sunday, but it seems unlikely to reach northern Vermont by the end of the ski day. Maybe instant replay can overturn my call in a few days but I like my odds and I certainly think temperatures will stay sub-40 through the 29th on the mountain, something I would not have set 3-5 days ago. 

As more model data continues to stream in, the notion we are destined to receive rain during this New Year's mild period no longer seems to be a certainty and a mild rain all rain event isn't even the most likely scenario anymore. Though the jet stream blocking and extreme relative warmth will continue in eastern Canada, storminess appears like it wants to undercut much of this blocking creating all kinds of intrigue around the New Year's holiday. Sure, some wet weather is possible, but if a large storm undergoes some sort of occlusion within our vicinity, which several models have indicated, significant snow totals are entirely possible and could quite possibly mark an epic start to 2025. This situation certainly has my attention and although temperatures still look mild relative to average, not all mild weather is created equal. 

Beyond holiday, the pattern appears to have much better cold weather support with split flow developing in the eastern Pacific, large amounts of ridging in western North America and arctic cold working its way back southward in North America. Though above average temperatures are likely to continue through January 5th, it's less likely that readings are above freezing on the mountain. After January 5th, temperatures could more closely resemble a typical January and may even drop below normal for the first full week of the month. 

3-6 inches of windblown snow accompany a cold Winter Solstice weekend followed by only slowly moderating temperatures Christmas week

One healthy band of snow managed to rotate through the Mad River Valley on Friday and intermittent light snow will accompany the gradual descent of temperature readings along with the strong winds through Saturday. Total snow accumulations will be enhanced by the unfrozen state of Lake Champlain and although the big storm and heavy snow won't materialize, a cold 3-6 wind blown inches will provide some powdery turns. The intermittent snow will taper off and give way to some clearing Saturday night and sunshine should then make a partial appearance on Sunday. The big story is the cold obvoiusly. Temperatures will be near 10 while the snow is falling on Saturday and will be accompanied by 30 mph wind gusts, which could be higher at the summits. Actual temperatures Sunday are expected to stagnate in the single numbers with a continuation of near 30 mph wind gusts in spite of sunshine. Please dress accordingly. 

Winds will taper off late Sunday and clear skies along with the snow cover will provide the support for subzero temperatures Monday morning. We still expect a bluebird day Monday or at least most of Monday with calm winds and readings climbing into the teens. 

We are still expecting a surge in the EPO index around the Christmas holiday forcing arctic air to make a northward retreat. As mentioned in the last update, New England and Vermont in particular seem well positioned for a very slow moderation in temperatures throughout the holiday week. Additionally, a disturbance riding along the slowly eastward moving warmer temperatures will be the catalyst for a period of light snow Monday night into Christmas Eve. We appear to be in line for a few inches though we should expect some final alterations in these expectations over the coming days. Sunshine could make a nice appearance on Christmas Day and on the 26th. After that, an extended period of cloudiness which often accompanies a gradual push toward milder temperatures. Overall, none of these milder temperatures appear to be too much of a problem through the 27th with overnight readings remaining below freezing and daytime temperatures climbing beyond the freezing mark for a few hours late in the week. Moreover, Christmas week will feature no rain or mixed precipitation.

A massive blob of anomalous warmth across eastern Canada stands out like a sore thumb on the ensemble maps for the last full weekend of the 2024. In spite of this, there appears to be a way through this calamity and into 2025 which is starting to look very interesting, mostly because of potential storminess and more supportive temperatures. The days leading up to New Year's Day are the most challenging however since no fresh supply of cold exists within thousands of miles of us. A way through is contingent on the low sun angle of late December, minimal ambient flow that is not south or southwesterly and somehow avoiding potential rainfall. The operational simulations are going to be noisy out this far but it's encouraging that a few of them have indicated this possibility. Other simulations have shown some potential rainfall. The turn to colder weather and a higher probability of snow would then arrive on or before the first full weekend of 2025.

4-7 Wednesday night, some cold, light windblown snow Saturday and a slower temperature moderation Christmas week

Our round of new snow Wednesday night is on track and will mark the beginning of a nice stretch of pre-holiday wintry weather in northern Vermont. I had hoped that the responsible wave of low pressure would achieve a bit more legitimacy as it tracks over Cape Cod very early Thursday, but 1014 mb might be about all we can muster. The flat wave is still good enough to produce a period of wet snow beginning around 5-6 pm Wednesday evening and persisting for several hours. As expected, snow showers are expected in the aftermath although most of those will occur in the early morning and we should experience some clearing during the ski day Thursday. Accumulations get downgraded to the 4-7 inch category. Temperatures are still expected to drop enough by early Thursday to dry out the snow with readings on the mountain hovering near 20 and high 20's in valley locations. 

Models are telling me Friday is full of clouds with temperatures mostly in the teens. In the morning most of the clouds and some of the associated light snow will be over Michigan and rival state Ohio and my thinking is this will help induce a period of morning sunshine over us. Clouds, when they do arrive, will be a later day thing as the aforementioned clipper tries to merge with energy offshore Friday night. Right now, this merging is expected to take place too far east for heavy snow in Vermont or almost anywhere along the northeast coast. Coastal locations could still get a snow event of sorts but our snow will be generally light with accumulations in the windblown 1-4 inch category. The wind is a bigger story Saturday. When combined with actual temperatures of around 10 degrees, gusts over 30 mph will bring wind chills well below zero and easily make for the coldest ski day of the year. Wind chills are expected to be even worse Sunday in spite of more sunshine. Actual temperatures are expected to stay in the single numbers on the mountain and this means wind chill numbers lower than  20 below. 

Our winter solstice arctic outbreak is centered over New England and eastern Canada and is easily the coldest since late January of 2024. Temperatures might be even colder were it not for the Hudson Bay remaining more than 50 percent ice-free which marks the slowest pace of ice expansion since records of this began. Still, Monday January 23rd will be on old-fashion bluebird plate special with immaculate visibility, lower winds and temperatures climbing from subzero levels into the teens. We then have some good news for the duration of the Christmas holiday week with the temperature moderation appearing slower and a greater potential for some  light warm advection snowfall either Christmas Eve, Day or both. Though the rest of the country is expecting a more rapid rise in temperatures for the holiday as arctic air is expected to retreat in North America, New England seems well positioned to make the best final stand. High pressure is expected to remain situated to over the maritime region of Canada and December's low sun angle combined with an extended stretch of northeast flow, if that indeed prevails, will prevent excessive temperatures from making an assault on our ski country through December 27th.

Without a fresh available supply of colder air, there's some reason for concern as the New Year approaches and the threat of a more organized system and precipitation increases. The risk of any heavy precipitation appears low until the last full weekend of the month and then who knows. The coldest arctic air will remain bottled up into early 2025 as well but the outlook during the first full week of the new year has also shifted cooler as more ridging is now indicated in western North America. In early January, we have the climatological cushion of the coldest month of the year and a storm in the right place without the power of the polar jet can be the right ingredients for something interesting.

6-10 inches of new snow Wednesday night into Thurday and a milder outlook Christmas to New Year's

 The outlook continues to evolve for the home stretch of 2024 including the busy holiday period and there are some significant updates to the shorter term weather picture as well. Though it is amazing the progress that numerical weather prediction (modeling) has made during my professional life, stuff always seems to find a way to defy expectation. 

The cold rain Monday night shouldn't come as any surprise. Less than a quarter inch of this is expected and it should all be over by daybreak Tuesday. Daytime temperatures on Tuesday are the bigger story since we have a torchy dry westerly wind accompanied by some breaks of sunshine. This will boost temperatures to the highest levels of the month with close to 50-degree readings in valley locations and closer to 40 up on the mountain. Wednesday's temperatures are also expected to be mild but with less wind and ultimately more cloudiness 

Wednesday's late day clouds come out ahead of a nice midweek dose of snow. It will be a warmer event with temperatures within a few degrees of the freezing mark while the snow is falling. It all begins around 7 pm Wednesday with snow showers continuing through Thursday morning. The wet snow Wednesday night will amount to 4-6 inches but readings are expected to turn colder by Thursday morning (with the additional snow showers adding 2-4, supplying skiers with a well-deserved powder day. Northern Vermont is the place to be for this event as southern Vermont is expected to receive more ice and rain and is not positioned well for Thursday's snow showers. 

The solstice period defined by Friday December 20th to Monday December 23rd is very likely going to be the coldest period of the month.  Expect readings to stay below 20 on the mountain during most of this 96-hour stretch. The snow/storm potential is still there for Saturday though it does seem like the weaker storm Wednesday has helped to realign the storm track further southeast for the weekend. Energy and some light snow from the clipper is expected to be somewhere in the Ohio Valley on Friday and will be seeking fuel and support from any energy along the Atlantic coastline. The southeast shift of any such interaction is making it more unlikely that northern Vermont sees significant snow from this though a few of the many simulations over the past 24 hours still suggest its possible. What seems more likely right now is for the aforementioned cold and some accompanying snow showers Saturday followed by cold bluebird weather Sunday into Monday. 

The period running from Christmas Eve to New Year's Day continues to look warmer,the intensity of which comes as a surprise though some sort of Christmas thaw has been almost as certain in Vermont as the sun rising in the east over the past decade. Our one exception seems to be 2017-18 which was brutally cold. I was more surprised by the culprit for all this as it seems the jet in the Pacific will become rather intense in the days before Christmas, forcing arctic air into retreat mode. Though other teleconnection indicators continue to be mixed, the arctic retreat is legit and we can expect moderating temperatures by Christmas Eve and perhaps our first taste of above freezing temperatures on Christmas Day. For now, it continues to appear dry as this moderation is occurring without significant rain or mixed precipitation in the forecast picture until the last full weekend of the month. New Year's remains far enough out on the timeline for additional changes and hopefully a shift to more mitigated warmup. 

As we pass the 75th anniversary of Mad River Glen, it dawned on me how much pop culture has changed over that span of time, specifically music, my other passion. Out of respect for this, and hopefully as a pleasant distraction from a holiday thaw or anything else going on in the world, expect to see some music show up in the threads feed and on the blog. Each year of Mad River Glen's existence will see respect get paid to a different musician. That's 75 different musicians in 75 years and a challenge to come up with one good one for each year that was relevant to the year. It will be a fun exercise for me and hopefully an enjoyable listen should you partake in any of this journey.

Some snow potential emerging near the winter solstice while the outlook turns slightly milder around Christmas and beyond

With cold weather having returned to northern New England, we play the familiar game of searching in the outlook for our next chance at new natural snow. Looks like we will at least have one solid chance prior to Christmas. In spite of the recent rain, it's not been an especially bad start to December. Temperatures on the mountain are averaging in the low 20's with much of the fallen snow compressed into an icy base layer of concrete. Dust on crust. 

It was both a dry and extraordinarily sunny autumn period throughout New England, but our darkest month of  the year has seen clouds and a lot of precipitation so far. Friday featured some sunshine and this will be followed by two outstanding bluebird days with minimal wind. Saturday is the colder version with readings near 20 and Sunday is the more comfortable version with readings climbing to 30. The clear sky and tranquil winds will help bring many parts of Vermont below zero Sunday morning. 

Clouds are likely to return for Monday December 16th but the latest indication is that the warm advection snow, ice and rain stays to our south during the day. By Monday night light precipitation is expected to arrive as ice or rain and this could end as some wet snow on the mountains on Tuesday. Once again, temperatures are likely to stay in the 30's as the precipitation is falling and the mildest period in the week is likely Tuesday afternoon after the precipitation ends. 

The end of next week is beginning to look very interesting as there appears to be a building consensus for a big jet amplification. How this evolves in the form of specifics is very much a question as a series of jet impulses could have some impact on our weather. The one I have a particular eye on precedes the strongest surge of arctic chill so far this season and will rotate through the Great Lakes Friday. It has the potential for some constructive interaction with a weak low pressure area near the eastern seaboard with the end result being a material snow event somewhere in the northeast, most likely interior areas. Very cold weather and at least some snow showers is a minimal likely result of all this on Saturday (winter solstice day), with bitterly cold air and more snow showers lingering for Sunday. 

The previous paragraph summarizes much of the good news in this update. The more troubling part of the outlook involves the actual Christmas holiday and the immediate days after which do appear to be milder vs my earlier expectations. Though we do have continued support from the EPO, arctic air is expected to retreat somewhat over central and western Canada and the partially unfrozen Hudson Bay will make it more challenging to retain the existing cold in eastern Canada. For now, I would be inclined to favor only slightly above average temperatures and there are no glaring indications of wet weather .If we manage to lay down some significant snow next weekend (still a question), the holiday period could be a pretty good one relative to recent seasons.

Patience is required for help on new snow though pattern for the holidays continues to look encouraging

It was a soggy day, very much as expected across the mountains of northern Vermont. Temperatures however, remained in the 30's, defying expectations from a few days ago of a big spike and a bigger melt-off. This is important since the colder temperatures will preserve both some of the recent snowfall and will not put to waste all the snowmaking efforts from the nearly 2 weeks of sub-freezing temperatures. I remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook through the end of 2024 and perhaps even a step above "cautiously" as of Wednesday afternoon. We have the weather pattern aligned enough to support what could be the coldest December month since 2017. That said, we will have to be patient for our next chance at natural snow. We can expect a little taste here and there but still have another day of milder temperatures to endure (after today). 

Blustery winds will whip 20-30 degree temperatures back into the region by Thursday morning. The heavy rain will end as snow Wednesday night and we can expect light snow showers and flurries during the day Thursday, but the westerly flow is not an especially moist one for us and the heavier snow showers are more likely north of Stowe. Expect readings to fall not far from 10 degrees Friday morning and struggle to 20 Friday though with lots of December sunshine and excellent visibility. More blue skies can be expected Saturday, a comfortable day thanks to calmer winds and near 30-degree afternoon temperatures following a chilly start. 

The period beginning Sunday and ending Tuesday has been targeted by the various longer ensembles as a potential thaw or mild weather for awhile now. The warmth doesn't appear excessive and Sunday's increase in clouds underneath a surface wedge ridge are expected to help keep readings in check. Above freezing temps and some light mixed precipitation or rain appear pegged for Tuesday, December 17th before colder weather reestablishes a presence in New England. It's not a great outlook next week, but this could have easily been worse. Furthermore, longer range ensembles are providing us with our first hints of what could be our next significant snow either around or just before this year's winter solstice. 

This is underscoring a key point at the end of the last update about the pattern fundamentals for the rest of 2024. I really like the jet stream action in the Pacific and been pleasantly surprised that we might very well see this regime reemerge around the holiday. A lot of unsettled weather is indicated in the mid-latitude Pacific and the easiest way I can describe that is to call it an evil empire inversion. A natural result of this, among a few others is for some ridging to develop in western North America, providing us with our mechanism for a colder flow of weather. At face value, ensembles show normal temperatures across New England Christmas week. If we manage to split the flow, with jet energy in the Pacific undercutting that ridge in western North America, we can spin ourselves up a storm prior to the start of 2025.

Some snow Monday night is followed by a heavy rain event Wednesday

Mad River Glen has been on a roll, scoring a few inches of snow on nearly a daily basis over the past 5 days. This stretch of weather gets capped off with a final few inches of snow, all coming in a span of a few hours Monday evening. Even as warm air encompasses much of the eastern Great Lakes region, sub-freezing temperatures will remain entrenched across northern Vermont through early Tuesday. The snow Monday evening is of the front-end thump variety, as a wave of low pressure, passing to the region's south, marks the advance of the milder temperatures with an accompanying area of precipitation. Snowfall totals will be in the familiar 2-4 inch range and though it might fall as powdery snow, Tuesday's near freezing temperatures will make this consistency a little wetter. Much of Tuesday is precipitation free, but the mid-level temperature environment is expected to warm considerably even as surface temperatures hover around the freezing mark. By the end of the day, a stronger area of low pressure will organize over the southeastern United States and as this strengthening storm travels northward, much of the cold will  have been scoured out of interior New England. 

December has always been a tricky month for winter weather in New England. Even with favorable weather pattern, the proximity of all that relative Atlantic Ocean warmth leaves the region so vulnerable to the rogue inland runner and a big temperature surge. Such is very much the case with the rain event set to smack us in the face on Wednesday. The track of this storm isn't even that bad with the current expectation having the primary low track very close to us Wednesday evening. The lastest Euro, released right at the time of this update has the track of the low east of us over New Hampshire which would be good enough for a colder storm and some snow on the back end, yet mostly we would still be wet. The low pressure center in question begins to take shape across over the southeast early Tuesday and strengthens quickly over the Ohio Valley, continuing to intensify on its track toward northern New England. The fact that this storm will have not reached maturation upon its arrival opens the door for the northward push of low and mid level tropospheric warmth. Light rain or freezing rain in some areas begins Tuesday night and becomes a steadier and then heavier rain on Wednesday with temperatures gradually warming toward 40 degrees. Depending on the eventual track of the low, there is the potential for a brief but intense temperature spike for a few hours Wednesday evening. We might avoid this if the low pressure area tracks over New Hampshire, but either way, we won't avoid the heavy rain which will amount to well over an inch and then change to snow early Thursday before ending. Colder weather appears more intense Thursday and Friday with readings in the 20's on the former (with gusty winds) and perhaps only in the teens during the latter. Single digit readings are possible during each of the upcoming weekend mornings though wind is expected to subside and sunshine is expected for at least the Saturday portion. 

There is a nice looking cold air damming signature beginning to show its face on model simulations Sunday and this does indicate the possibility for an east coast winter storm. Whether or not the impact of such an event could reach far enough into northern Vermont is a tough question. I would call it unlikely right now but stay tuned. 

The longer range outlook which includes both next week and the following week continue to improve. The general consensus continues to point toward a milder period early next week but this milder weather has looked considerably less intense over time and there are no signs of rain of any significance. Multiple ensembles show colder air making a return late next week and likely consuming the region for solstice weekend. Though the ensembles aren't indicating a strong signal one way or another for Christmas week, I am very encouraged with the EPO which is again expected to turn very negative in two weeks time. This combined with a mildly negative AO favors colder and snowier conditions in New England. We've had the misfortune of many rainy Christmas weeks over the past several years. To say we are due for something better would be an understatement !

Mad River Glen opening brings 3-6 inches fo snow Saturday night into early Sunday

Much like it did when the 2023-2024 season closed several months ago, the weather intends to fully cooperate with the December 7th/8th opening and that includes some snow Saturday night that's taken me by surprise. Several days back, I had made mention of a second weekend clipper system bringing some weekend snow potential only to watch models almost entirely remove it from the weather map the next day. I've been doing this long enough that I try to leave myself some room to be wrong or to correct and this is one of those instances.  

The Mad River Glen opener appears to be a cloudy one with a dusting of new snow, temperatures well below the freezing mark and substantially less wind than Friday. The clipper system is back from the dead as a warm advection event. Snow from this should begin well after the ski day Saturda,y late in the evening and is set to continue until the Sunday ski day beings. Expect a powdery 3-6 inches but one should also expect temperatures to warm close to the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. I mean it sorta goes without saying in any snow event, but those looking for the coldest snow will find it early in the day.  Most of the ski day Sunday will turn out dry with some clearing later in the day assisting that milder push of weather. 

The Saturday night clipper is not the only turn in the short term outlook. Colder air is expected to battle for some interior New England presence early next week making the temperature outlook colder overall though we are still expecting a mixed bag of weather. Monday's temperatures are no longer in the 40's as chilly high pressure in Canada is expected to turn the flow more northeasterly by Monday. Precipitation on the front end of a big storm system near Lake Superior  will collide with the aforementioned area of cold setting the stage for a nice front-end thump situation Monday evening that includes some snow or at least a snow/sleet mixture. Ultimately, a stronger pressure center is expected to organize across the southeast US and bring more significant amounts of moisture and a warmer mid-level environment to Vermont, but I am no longer so convinced surface temperatures will be all that warm at any point next week. We could certainly get wet for a time and experience a period of above-freezing weather, but I am going to leave some room for more changes on this one. This has moved in a nice direction over the past 48 hours and its quite possible to score some points on the back end of this as colder air enters the forecast picture Wednesday night into Thursday. 

The longer range has some positive developments way out on the horizon but the progression appears similar to the last update. Colder weather follows the big storm system on Wednesday, and should temperatures well below the freezing mark on the mountain through Saturday December 14th. Ensembles continue to hammer away at us with a mild period between the 15th and 18th of the month. After that however, the EPO index is expected to drop again allowing for jet stream ridge to potentially reestablish itself over western North America which would allow for a colder outlook closer to the winter solstice.

Clipper to bring a nice dose of snow to the northern Vermont high country

Happy Sugarbush opening day and MRG opening for Saturday ! The recent stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snow helped all of the Vermont mountains make progress on snowmaking. The upcoming snowfall which will begin late Wednesday and continue sporadically through Thursday evening will also help and sets northern Vermont up well for what should a nice first full weekend of December. The snow is associated with a feisty clipper system which is projected to pass right along Vermont's Canadian border early Thursday. The fact that this storm is passing so far north does negatively impact our snowfall potential some and also slows the coastal strengthening many of these systems undergo. Ultimately, the storm will get pretty wound up near the Gulf of St Lawrence and will help a nice surge of arctic chill envelop the region late Thursday into Friday. 

As for the snow. much of it will be light and sporadic beginning Wednesday evening and persisting through a good part of Thursday. Clearly we are not in the best conveyor of moisture in this time frame and there will be intervals where snow is either very light or not falling at all. As the storm begins strengthening to our northeast and the flow turns west and then northwest, the snow will intensify and we should expect a few hours of occasionally heavy snowfall on the mountains Thursday evening. Given how warm Lake Champlain remains as of early December, the corridor from Sugarbush northward to Jay Peak could do extraordinarily well before the ski day Friday. As for the particulars on amounts, I am a bit pessimistic on snow totals Wednesday night and early Thursday when 1 to as much as 4 inches is the likely range depending on your elevation. I am optimistic on snow totals Thursday evening when 3 to as much an additional 10 inches is the likely range, again depending mostly on your elevation. Expect winds to increase late Thursday and become very blustery by early Friday. Winds chills will be well below zero with actual temps hovering in the low teens for much of the ski day. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph or more closer to summit areas. It will remain windy and cold through Saturday though with a bit more sun and a less intense wind before clouds and moderating temperatures return for Sunday.

Going forward, we continue to see an adverse trend in the weather pattern. I was pleased to see the various teleconnection indicators neutralize and indicate a potential return of colder weather as we approach the winter solstice, but ensembles are indicating two surges of milder weather over the next 12 days. The first of which comes Monday and though we may dodge the worst of this mild weather, we should anticipate a bit of mixed precipitation and rainfall in the early part of next week. Colder weather is expected to return between December 11th and 13th before another and potentially bigger surge of milder weather threatens us around the 14th and persisting through the 16th. Not at all atypical to get rather erratic weather conditions in December and I've come to expect it, but it has been strange that so many of our recent winters have had these great teaser weeks in late November or early December only to give way to milder weather on or before the holiday.

Some snowfall late Wedneday into Thursday as December comes in wintry !

Our mountains are a few days in and about a foot of snow deep into this early dose of winter. The longer range outlook took a less than favorable turn on us, but the upcoming week still appears to be a productive one. We've been in a tight range on temperatures with just enough clouds and wind to keep readings above 20 degrees during the nights while only rising a few degrees during the daylight hours. 

That mostly cloudy sky is expected to be with us through much of this wintry week. Lighter snow showers are expected to continue with minimal accumulation through Tuesday and our best chance for some blue sky might be on a chilly Wednesday morning. Clouds are then expected to then thicken again with light snow developing in the afternoon. This is an impressive looking clipper system that is poised to bring us this burst of snow, but I sure wish we could get this sucker do dig a little harder on its southeast trajectory. Still we appear to be in the favorable quadrant of what is commonly  referred to in meteorological parlance as the "jet max" and results after Thursday night should be pretty good. A period of steady snows appears very likely, as mentioned Wednesday night, but the best snow may come late Thursday into early Friday with a plume of Champlain enhanced moisture and a beautiful cold northwest flow to blow that moisture toward us. 2-4 inches seems most likely during the first period of light snow Wednesday evening and then 4-8 inches of more elevation sensitive snow late Thursday into Thursday night. A healthy burst of early season chill will accompany this later burst of snow and Friday's temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the teens. 

A second clipper system, weaker than its predecessor is expected to bring more clouds and some snow for Saturday and will help extend the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. A little early to speak on snowfall expectations except to suggest it looks higher than zero and lower than 6. 

I've been operating under the assumption we would get another week of colder weather similar to the current one and though arctic air remains a significant part of the picture, the long wave pattern appears a bit different with cold expected to shift its focus westward. The biggest concern with this change relates to the possibility of an area of low pressure taking an inland route of bringing warmer weather and a spat of rainfall. There are a couple of different directions this could still go and models have been painting a variety of possible outcomes though the one early Monday appeared warmer unfortunately. 

Another round of sub-freezing temperatures is expected to follow whatever scenario happens early in the week before ensembles indicate another potential western North America jet amplification for the 2nd full weekend of December. Still some good news in that we are not going to lose the support of a more favorable Pacific jet stream. Additionally, ensembles indicate ridging over Alaska which should keep arctic air well-positioned to envelop much of Canada. We are way, way behind with Hudson Bay ice so far this cold season with less than 5 percent of that northern body of water showing ice cover as of December 1st. The Hudson Bay has been freezing later in recent years thanks to the impacts of climate change, but even with these headwinds, 20-30 percent of that 500,000 square mile region should have ice by now. The presence of arctic air should help reduce the open water over the next 2 weeks.