Tuesday snowfall is the best of what appears to be a pattern capable of producing a few chances for snow through December 10

December coming in with a bang across Vermont with a terrific looking pattern featuring plenty of cold air. We can expect most of the first 10 days of the month to stay sub-freezing and this is a major victory considering the adversarial relationship this time of the winter season has with Vermont. Most importantly, we get a chance to add some depth to the healthy base of November snow that has already been provided to us (at least across high elevations). There are several chances for snow with some events clearly looking better than others now. 

A plethora of Saturday college football games featured snowfall and that system will push some snow into Vermont Sunday. Unfortunately, we can't really turn the flow out of that nasty southwesterly direction and those systems typically turn out dry for us. We can expect some on and off light snow and about an inch during the day followed by another inch Sunday night. Cold, early season arctic air then envelops the region for Monday with temperatures hovering in the high teens on the mountain for much of the day. The day should feature some sunshine, especially after the early morning. 

The storm that certainly has my attention approaches on Tuesday. We've had a promising set of model simulations and even 1 or 2 that certainly fit the "eye candy" category. This is a pretty standard variety east coast weather system however with low pressure consolidating near the Virginia tidewater region midday Tuesday and then strengthening as it moves up along the New England coastline. We need a northward shift for this storm to become the 1-2 foot powder producing snowstorm it certainly could become. When the polar jet is involved sometimes that can be more difficult, but considering the early stature of the winter season I would not rule a heavier snow total out at all. As it stands, the safer bet is for a 6-12 inch steady snow beginning around daybreak Tuesday and persisting into the evening. Wednesday appears dry with temperatures making a run into the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

The 2nd surge of arctic air should arrive late on Thurday and bring with it a brief period of snowfall, possibly in the form of some quick hitting squalls. Some early December sunshine is likely for Friday, which should again be a very chilly early winter day with temperatures holding in the teens and wind chills well below zero. As far as snow chances, one storm to watch late on Friday that may or may not stay to our south followed by better storm potential on the 7th and 8th of the month. 

The colder pattern is being anchored by a beautiful high latitude blocking set up over Alaska and now the Bering Sea with a very chill jet stream over the Pacific. This is allowing arctic cold to flood much of Canada with no real mechanism to force it into retreat mode through the first 10 days of December. There are signs on some of the longer range simulations that the cold will shift west after December 10 without totally giving up a presence in eastern North America. Certainly an excellent start to the season.