This has been a back and forth affair regarding the difficult weather system we've been trying to pin down for Sunday and Monday. It's been a poorly defined storm running along the northern periphery of all the intense warmth currently dominating the central and western United States. At the same time, very cold weather is dominating lesser populated areas of Canada. The Mad River Valley sits at the southern edge this storm's good side and it is very close both in terms of where the heaviest precipitation actually falls and where the snow/sleet line sets up. Some rather heavy snowfall Sunday morning will fall Sunday morning thanks to the robust frontogenetic forcing this storm is endowed with. That snow will become lighter as the day progresses, and may mix with sleet for a short time before tapering off entirely for a time in the evening. Some of the snow will have fallen before many read this update, about 3-6 before first tracks time Sunday and an additional 2-4 after that yielding a 5-10 inch snow total. The Northeast Kingdom is the winning region for this one and I am rather surprised the National Weather Service doesn't have Winter Storm Warnings out in that region. Even over us, it's a pretty high impact event given the nature of the snowfall, which at 30-32 degrees, can make for brutal road conditions and can cause power outages. Over the higher terrain, I think readings will stay in the 20's and keep the snow drier. As Sunday progresses into Sunday night, drier colder air should envelop the region, send temperatures to near 20 on the mountain and then clouds will hold them under 30 through Monday. Those clouds are again expected to produce some additional snow during the day. The trailing storm system is too far south to turn this storm into an epic event for us, but it's strengthening to enhance an area of snowfall across a broad area of interior New England Monday which will be enough for a 1-3 inch additional accumulation. Bluebird weather fans get theirs on Tuesday and it's a nice cold version with near 20 degree temperatures in the morning and then near freezing in the afternoon.
Snow showers might return to the mountains for Wednesday as a weaker jet impulse comes and goes. The system worth watching approaches late Wednesday into Thursday. It's amazing how much heat models are sending into the central plains in this period while arctic air continues to dominate much of Canada. Oklahoma and Kansas have already seen 90 degree weather this month and will probably get more as this storm exits the Rockies and heads for the Great Lakes. We've got an American model taking this storm pretty far north while both versions of the European are suggesting at least some snowfall for Vermont. I am betting on the latter and will provide more color on this as details emerge. Reinforcing cold is expected to provide a more wintry last weekend in March and this might be enough to keep sub-freezing conditions on the mountain alive through Monday before milder air starts to win out for the middle of the week. There are continued indications of a mild or even warm start to April, at least right now with a rather strong ridge predicted to develop right along the east coast by April 2nd or 3rd.
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