Cold with just some light snow potential Sunday but softer cold next week brings with it snowfall potential on 2 occasions

 So the polar vortex will steer clear of the United States this weekend and through much of next week, preferring instead to hang out on the eastern shore of the Hudson Bay, well up into Quebec. This isn't entirely unexpected but it is a slight shift north verses some previous expectations and both the intensity and coverage of the cold in eastern North America appears a little less impressive. All that said, Vermont still appears very cold through much of next week, but with the polar jet forecasted to be a bit further north, at least one decent snowfall possibility is coming into view on Tuesday the 25th. 

Meanwhile, the bluebird weather that dominated Vermont through Thursday afternoon is expected to continue through Friday along with mostly sub-zero temperatures on the mountain. Winds are not expected to be the factor they were late last Friday and into Saturday so from the standpoint of wind chill, it won't feel quite as cold. This is especially the case this Saturday when a healthy dose of sunshine should warm temperatures from 15 below all the way to 15 above with gentle wind speeds. More clouds and some light snow return return for Sunday as arctic is reinforced by late in the day. We have a small window here for some Champlain induced powder Sunday but the incoming airmass is, again, pretty stable by nature and we should expect conditions to dry out quickly with subzero readings and clear blue skies greeting us Monday morning. 

The weather map this coming Tuesday consists of a strong incoming shot of arctic chill and a potent clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes. Add to all this , a small but potentially not so insignificant subtropical feature along the Gulf Coast. With the polar jet backing off some earlier projections, there are several possibilities that emerge with the most probable and most benign being some lighter snows from the clipper system followed by another round of intense cold. The two more exciting scenarios involve the clipper or the subtropical feature going bombs away and depositing more much needed snow on the northeast before exiting. Following a couple of very cold and dry days, there is another chance for a potential east coast event as often happens when the polar jet retreats but arctic cold remains entrenched over eastern North America. 

I've heard some social media talk this week about a sharp warm-up as we move into the month of February. Undoubtedly, there are some changes to the weather pattern stemming from the positive turn of the AO and a retrograding jet stream that will allow western North American ridge to migrate west into the northeast Pacific and Alaska. Temperatures are certainly likely to modify but I am not convinced we are headed toward some torchy gloom for a few reasons. The positive AO turn is significant but not especially strong and a blocking ridge appears to be a long term fixture above the Eurasian continent and above and somewhat aligned with the broad ridging over Alaska. Additionally, the mid-latitude Pacific continues to look pretty favorable and is not exhibiting a tendency that would drive arctic air nearly clean off the North American continent or even into some deep high latitude retreat. The pattern, in fact, should consist of plenty of arctic chill both in the western United States, more broadly in Canada and to a lesser extent, the Great Lakes and New England. The recent stretch of cold has also mitigated if not eliminated some of the warm feedbacks that we were contending with last month. The Hudson Bay is frozen, the Great Lakes have some ice coverage and the coastal Atlantic is not as warm (in a relative sense) as it was earlier in the season.

One day of comfortable temps Wednesday and then the deep freeze begins !

Before proceeding with today's outlook, lets raise a glass to another great MLK storm now in the books. This storm defied a lot of conventional wisdom (lets be honest, all weather does) especially considering that the low pressure center tracked right over Vermont and we didn't get cheated on moisture, didn't warm past the freezing mark and didn't sleet ! We did eventually get the dry slot after 13 inches, but I wasn't one to complain given how dire the snow situation has been around here. What a terrific over-performance ! 

Wednesday's clipper system will, unfortunately, not be as kind as the storm on MLK day. As mentioned previously, we are in the wrong quadrant of this system. After a chilly, near zero-degree morning, we can expect clouds and some minimal light snow to give way to some afternoon sunshine and an accompanying milder southwest wind. Temperatures will approach 30 on the mountain and are likely to sneak above the freezing mark in lower lying valley locations. Enjoy the balmy temperatures because frigid temperatures are very, very incoming ! 

A widespread outbreak of arctic air in eastern North America will make its Vermont arrival on Thursday. Temperatures are likely to hover around 10 degrees on the mountain early Thursday before plummeting to near zero by evening. We have a favorable wind direction for Champlain powder on Thursday but the airmass is too stable to allow for even shallow convection. We thus should get bluebird conditions from midday onward and this should continue into Friday with lesser amounts of wind. Thanks to our fresh blanket of snow, both Friday and Saturday morning could see readings down around 15 or even 20 below but after Thursday, winds will not be a huge factor through the weekend. As far as snowfall is concerned, the dry period should extend from Thursday through Saturday. There's some risk for a decent snowfall in southern New England Saturday but this remains just a possibility even for them and for us it appears very unlikely. All that said, the Atlantic remains a source of relative warmth and even a small fuse has the capability of going bombs away. One such chance for this comes in the Sunday/Monday time frame as a clipper system arrives and attempts to gather steam along the NE coast. At the very least we should see some light snow out of this and a light accumulation before frigid temperatures are again reinforced Monday. 

We don't expect the polar vortex to drop completely into the U.S. next week but it will get pretty close, swinging through central Quebec during the middle part of next week. With it comes a massive surge of chill that should arrive either late Tuesday or Wednesday (25th/26th) bringing with it the coldest temps we see this winter season and perhaps in a few years. Before the mother-load of cold arrives, another innocuous looking system could spread some snow into parts of New England and possibly strengthen into something bigger before quickly exiting. 

The cold pattern, fueled by a softer Pacific ocean and strong ridging in western North America should carry us through the rest of January but there are some signs of softening as the first day of February arrives. The biggest change relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which is expected to take a positive turn by the end of next week. Ridging in western North America is also expected to shift back toward Alaska which should open the door for more storminess for the western ski resorts as the end of January arrives. The cold weather should relent by the very end of the month in New England but the pattern doesn't look mild thanks to the continuation of favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific. A slight softening of this very amplified pattern will actually serve our big storm prospects well since a full-on arctic onslaught does have the propensity to suppress interior New England storminess.

Minimal sleet for MLK storm should get us into the 10-16 range

 Though not a perfect storm for us, another MLK storm will come through with some much needed snow. The track of this very strong storm is less than ideal, basically right over us, but the push of low and mid level warm air, though quite powerful, should fall just short of bringing temperatures up past the freezing mark at critical layers of the atmosphere. Moderate and occasionally heavy snow will begin before dawn Monday and continue into early afternoon before the dry slot gets us. I still think snow can mix with sleet occasionally but this wont be the dominant precipitation type. 

After a several hour lull, we should see terrain enhanced snow envelope the northern Green’s and continue through a good part of Monday night into early Tuesday before conditions dry out and sunshine returns accompanying blustery but tolerable temperatures. Snowfall looks a bit better overall because of the lesser amounts of sleet. Let’s call it 6-10 by early afternoon Monday and then another elevation sensitive 4-6 Monday night into early Tuesday. The 10-16 storm total would certainly be our best of the year ! 

We have more bitterly cold temperatures on the way but those don’t arrive until Thursday. Wednesday should feel downright balmy relative to this past weekend and the approaching arctic front still brings with it the possibility of more snow Wednesday night. Unfortunately it looks like we are in the wrong jet quadrant for this and snow totals by Thursday will be minimal. 

Bitterly cold temperatures follow for late Thursday and continue through the weekend. Coastal New England and the Mid Atlantic have a chance for a storm Saturday and the rest of the area gets their chance Monday the 24th. The Atlantic remains a tinderbox for storms but the polar jet will be potent enough to suppress some activity and also make it difficult for models to fully resolve beyond a few days out. The pattern continues to look good through the rest of January with a very cold period between the 21st to 27th with the arctic pattern softening some thereafter. Enjoy the storm folks, it’s been a long wait ! 

Latest on the MLK storm and a cold, wintry finish to January

Bitterly cold temperatures were a little delayed Friday morning but not denied with readings plunging rapidly into the single numbers across northern Vermont Friday evening. Expect temperatures to remain mostly below zero Saturday across the northern Vermont high country with strong winds (especially at the summits) continuing through early afternoon before subsiding by the evening. A much calmer day can be expected Sunday with sunshine warming temperatures into the teens by the afternoon. If you appreciate some of the big visibility winter days like I do, then Sunday comes highly recommended. 

The latest on the MLK storm is as follows. The storm is a really nice base-building type event but I would not expect epic snowfall amounts. It's close but, it's just not that type of storm. The already very mature cyclone will move from the Gulf Coast to the North Carolina Piedmont on Sunday and subsequently move northward while fighting to establish a coastline presence. The elongated low pressure center will pass pretty far west (as far as nor'easter's go), perhaps even through western Mass and up over the Upper Connecticut River Valley.  Followers of the blog (and of weather in general) know that this is less than optimal though not disastrous. The MRV is well positioned to get a deep plume of moisture early Monday but also positioned to get challenged with warmer marine air along with a dry slot. Expect snow to begin and become quite heavy for a time early Monday (lets give a start time of 6 am) with several inches of accumulation before precipitation mixes with and possibly even changes to sleet. If the track of the storm follows or even shifts west of this trajectory, the push of low level warmth is powerful enough to change the precip type to rain very briefly though I am of the opinion that this happens in the form of drizzle and during the period where the dry slot has overtaken much of northern Vermont. The snow and some sleet that arrives on Monday will be of the very dense Atlantic variety. It won't be glop or sierra cement but any mixing with sleet will very much weigh it down. I really enjoy reading Scott Braaten's analysis especially when he talks about dendrite growth and how it relates to snow consistency. I think he would agree with my assessment here but check him out on facebook for confirmation. After a several hour lull, the snow should return during the evening and continue at a lighter rate but of a much fluffier consistency into early Tuesday.  

I remain a bit uncertain about the sleet mixing (midday Monday) as of Friday evening. A couple of runs of the high resolution model are aggressively blasting milder air into Vermont but these simulations have their limitations out past 48 hours. Both major global models continue to suggest a primarily snow event although it is close. I point this out because it is of material consequence when it comes to predicting snowfall amounts. Sleet is highly dense in nature, snowfall is not and sleet can weigh down already fallen snow. With all of this in mind, I am sticking with the 8-16 prediction for the time being with 4-10 very dense inches falling early Monday and 4-6 fluffier inches falling Monday evening, night and into Tuesday. Accumulations will be elevation sensitive, especially during our 2nd dose of snowfall.

Expect fairly typical January-like temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday with a sharp and very intense surge of arctic chill approaching Wednesday evening. We have another shot at a few inches of snow on Wednesday as the arctic boundary approaches and some additional terrain enhanced powder is possible Thursday but the this surge of low level cold is powerful enough to stabilize the low level environment pretty quickly by late in the day. Friday into next Saturday looks like a freezer across all of New England, Vermont especially with plenty of sub-zero readings during the overnights and readings struggling into the single numbers during the day. 

The outlook continues to look quite cold, especially during the period beginning Thursday January 20th and persisting through at least January 28th or so. We can expect to hear talk of the polar vortex which should be in the vicinity of Vermont at least once during this period. Such a pattern can suppress storms to the south but there are signs of both clippers and even a more organized coastal system in between arctic shots of cold next weekend. It's January and it will certainly feel like it for the duration of the month.

MLK storm now very likely though track is still uncertain with favorable pattern now firmly in control through end of month

So much winter weather to discuss in this update with a favorable pattern now firmly in control through the duration of the month. For good reason, we got our eyes fixed on the potential storm on MLK day but there's plenty of weather before that worth knowing about. Arctic air has retreated into eastern Canada but is expected to slam into interior New England again on Friday. Clouds and some very sporadic very light snow can be expected for Thursday with comfortable temperature readings and tolerable wind speeds. Snow will intensify just enough for a light accumulation late Thursday or Thursday evening as the clash between a big storm well offshore and a strong arctic high in Ontario strengthens. That arctic chill will plunge directly into Vermont on Friday and with some very strong northerly winds that will only increase as the day goes on. Temperatures will start in the high teens and likely end the day in the single numbers and with well below zero wind chills. There have been stronger areas of arctic cold to impact Vermont, but when cold enters the state directly from Quebec, it can be especially intense and since this surge is accompanied by ferocious winds, especially at the summit, it is certainly worth nothing. Expect actual temps to be close to -10 Saturday morning with wind gusts reaching 40 mph or more at the summits. I don't make any calls on wind holds since individual lifts can be overly sensitive to certain wind directions but I would not be surprised to see a few. Winds will diminish rapidly Saturday night and a calm day on Sunday will make it feel dramatically warmer. Saturday afternoon temps are likely to stay below zero with wind and Sunday will be closer to 15 with some sunshine and hardly any wind. We still expect little snowfall through Sunday except for perhaps an inch or two late Thursday and whatever falls then will become very compressed and windblown by midday Friday. 

We have broken many snow droughts over the years on MLK day. Off the top of my head I remember significant snow occurring in 2007, 2009, 2015, 2019 and last year so it might be a little matchup between destiny and a recent run of bad luck.  In the case of this year, the blog has, for a while now, made mention of the storm potential during this period, but model data was intent on taking this action offshore when the last update was posted. Since then, there has been a dramatic shift northwest with a storm that looks like a southern streamer, but actually enters the continent in coastal BC. This storm looks dramatically more amplified when it begins to interact with the Atlantic Ocean after already entraining substantial amounts of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. By late Sunday, situation appears like a classic "Miller A" noreaster with an already strong storm getting another charge from some incoming polar energy. Though the slightly negative NAO has certainly helped with the recent trend, the storm is still a fast mover and the track has not yet been set. The northwest shift has been so dramatic over the last 36 hours that we are now asking it to stop. Several operational models are actually taking the storm west of what we would consider an optimal track, which would limit our snowfall to more disappointing range. Recent ensemble data has begun to exhibit some consistency however (of a fairly optimal track) and I thus cautiously optimistic. We need to fully iron out some of  the wrinkles in the forecast data before many details become clear, but it does appear that it will stay dry through Sunday evening with snow arriving Monday morning. From that point, we need the storm track to pass between Boston and the Cape for snowfall totals to reach a foot-plus. A track west of Boston and we will likely see a thump of snow, maybe even some sleet and then a dry slot and if the storm stays east of the Cape then we start to limit available moisture. 

Behind the storm we can expect some snow showers Monday night and a few days of comfortable temperatures before another surge of colder weather arrives sometime late in the week. This next surge of cold around the Thursday the 20th time frame is also the next chance for some snow. A big surge of arctic air is then expected across all of eastern North America between January 22 (Saturday) and January 27th. It's been a while but we finally got a favorable Pacific jet to align with a ridge (+PNA regime) in western North America. It will mean some big time arctic chill and it also means that we shift the storm track south. New snowfall will have to come from more moisture-starved clippers and limited terrain enhanced snow.

Bitterly cold temperatures dominate the forecast picture (strong winds Fri/Sat) for MLK weekend but outlook looks unfortunately less snowy

Chilly January weather pattern continues to be the headline but our desperate search for significant natural snow endures for this week and, in all likelihood, through most of the holiday weekend as well. Snow showers and a few snow squalls associated with the strongest push of arctic air so far this season were confined to southern Vermont Monday while low level stability has taken control across northern Vermont and will maintain control through Tuesday. We get a big visibility, bone chilling, bluebird day Tuesday but with temperatures generally staying below zero on the mountain and only slightly above zero in low lying areas. Feisty winds will continue through the middle part of the day before subsiding Tuesday evening. 

Temperatures will modify, temporarily for Wednesday and Thursday as a large storm strengthens off the Atlantic Coast. We've seen this happen on a few occasions this winter and its hurt our ability to procure a normal allotment of terrain enhanced snow. In spite of this, incoming polar energy is expected to allow for an inverted trough set up and an area of  light snow across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains on Thursday. Models are not especially bullish on snow amounts but a light accumulation is still my expectation. The polar energy is expected to further fuel the offshore storm and usher another area of dry arctic chill into New England for the weekend. Though the forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is certainly quite cold, it also appears much drier thanks to northwest flow aloft and storminess that is now expected to track well to our south on Saturday. We should see plenty of sunshine through early Sunday but once again, no new snow. I might point out that the strengthening offshore storm on Friday combined with a strong arctic high over Ontario means very windy conditions will accompany the single digit daytime temperatures. Northerly winds at the summits will be in the 30-40 mph range and will only slightly subside on Saturday. Measured in terms of wind chill, the upcoming weekend will be one of the coldest since the arctic outbreak in early 2018 so plan accordingly.

Chances for new snow do increase next week beginning as early as MLK day with additional chances for the ensuing week. The pattern appears decidedly chilly next week but the bitterly cold air from this weekend is expected to modify while disturbances moving quickly through the polar jet stream will present opportunities for snowfall. There are actually several different scenarios that would include some snowfall for the Vermont high country and though most of them consist of lighter snowfall amounts, there remains the chance for something more significant. The jet stream is likely to undergo a more significant amplification late in the week and in addition to the snow chance, the chances for another round of bitterly cold arctic outbreak increase. Ensembles show a pretty clear signal for some extreme cold in the Great Lakes and New England around January 24 which is the Monday of the last full week of January.

Incoming cold pattern sets up Vermont for an wintry rest of January and some Marvin Gaye music

Temperature profiles reveal a rather unique scenario in the Mad River Valley on Sunday. A warm layer aloft is strong enough to allow for a sleet/freezing mixture, but as temperatures gradually warm toward the freezing mark at the surface, that same warm layer will disappear allowing all precipitation to change to snow. So its freezing rain and sleet with temperatures in the 20's during the morning and light snow with temperatures in the 30's during the midday and afternoon hours. With precipitation both light and sporadic, accumulations will also be on the light side and be in the 1-2 inch range but we need all contributions at this point so giddy-up. 

More generally, I am excited about this pattern over the next few weeks. We've had to wait a few years, but we finally tamed the Pacific for an extended period and some persistent and steady cold will be the result across New England. If temperatures sneak above the freezing mark in a few areas on Sunday it may be the last time it happens for several weeks in northern Vermont. We got a good burst of cold arriving Monday as a small taste of what is to come. We could use a little more snow to accompany the incoming chilly air but it looks like the lower troposphere will stabilize after maybe an inch or so from snow showers Sunday night. Bluebird weather prevails by late Monday and continues into Tuesday accompanying plenty of sub-zero readings. Temperatures moderate Wednesday afternoon with a chance for some light snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

I whined about the +NAO regime during the last update and maybe that's what it took for some help to arrive. Some weakening in the jet stream in the area south of Greenland next weekend sets up for a potentially interesting scenario where storminess appears stuck out over the coastal Atlantic. Incoming polar energy could very well light the fuse for something but models are understandably inconsistent as to exactly what that something might be. My over/under for snow in the MRV MLK weekend is certainly not set at zero however and would probably range between 5-10 inches. Lets let this simmer for another few days and see what surfaces. The home-run outcome is out there but there are several other lesser outcomes that could also prove productive. 

The pattern is aligning beautifully for cold weather in the two weeks following MLK which encompasses most of the rest of January. A weakened jet in the Pacific combined with an elongated ridge stretching from western North America through parts of the arctic should open the pipeline for continuous arctic chill. The storm track will be pushed farther south but water temps in the western Atlantic create an inciting and inviting environment for storms. Lake Champlain is also no where close to freezing which creates steady opportunities for terrain enhanced snow. With that, I will leave you with this Marvin Gaye classic just because... 

Marvin