Some snow potential emerging near the winter solstice while the outlook turns slightly milder around Christmas and beyond

With cold weather having returned to northern New England, we play the familiar game of searching in the outlook for our next chance at new natural snow. Looks like we will at least have one solid chance prior to Christmas. In spite of the recent rain, it's not been an especially bad start to December. Temperatures on the mountain are averaging in the low 20's with much of the fallen snow compressed into an icy base layer of concrete. Dust on crust. 

It was both a dry and extraordinarily sunny autumn period throughout New England, but our darkest month of  the year has seen clouds and a lot of precipitation so far. Friday featured some sunshine and this will be followed by two outstanding bluebird days with minimal wind. Saturday is the colder version with readings near 20 and Sunday is the more comfortable version with readings climbing to 30. The clear sky and tranquil winds will help bring many parts of Vermont below zero Sunday morning. 

Clouds are likely to return for Monday December 16th but the latest indication is that the warm advection snow, ice and rain stays to our south during the day. By Monday night light precipitation is expected to arrive as ice or rain and this could end as some wet snow on the mountains on Tuesday. Once again, temperatures are likely to stay in the 30's as the precipitation is falling and the mildest period in the week is likely Tuesday afternoon after the precipitation ends. 

The end of next week is beginning to look very interesting as there appears to be a building consensus for a big jet amplification. How this evolves in the form of specifics is very much a question as a series of jet impulses could have some impact on our weather. The one I have a particular eye on precedes the strongest surge of arctic chill so far this season and will rotate through the Great Lakes Friday. It has the potential for some constructive interaction with a weak low pressure area near the eastern seaboard with the end result being a material snow event somewhere in the northeast, most likely interior areas. Very cold weather and at least some snow showers is a minimal likely result of all this on Saturday (winter solstice day), with bitterly cold air and more snow showers lingering for Sunday. 

The previous paragraph summarizes much of the good news in this update. The more troubling part of the outlook involves the actual Christmas holiday and the immediate days after which do appear to be milder vs my earlier expectations. Though we do have continued support from the EPO, arctic air is expected to retreat somewhat over central and western Canada and the partially unfrozen Hudson Bay will make it more challenging to retain the existing cold in eastern Canada. For now, I would be inclined to favor only slightly above average temperatures and there are no glaring indications of wet weather .If we manage to lay down some significant snow next weekend (still a question), the holiday period could be a pretty good one relative to recent seasons.

Patience is required for help on new snow though pattern for the holidays continues to look encouraging

It was a soggy day, very much as expected across the mountains of northern Vermont. Temperatures however, remained in the 30's, defying expectations from a few days ago of a big spike and a bigger melt-off. This is important since the colder temperatures will preserve both some of the recent snowfall and will not put to waste all the snowmaking efforts from the nearly 2 weeks of sub-freezing temperatures. I remain cautiously optimistic on the outlook through the end of 2024 and perhaps even a step above "cautiously" as of Wednesday afternoon. We have the weather pattern aligned enough to support what could be the coldest December month since 2017. That said, we will have to be patient for our next chance at natural snow. We can expect a little taste here and there but still have another day of milder temperatures to endure (after today). 

Blustery winds will whip 20-30 degree temperatures back into the region by Thursday morning. The heavy rain will end as snow Wednesday night and we can expect light snow showers and flurries during the day Thursday, but the westerly flow is not an especially moist one for us and the heavier snow showers are more likely north of Stowe. Expect readings to fall not far from 10 degrees Friday morning and struggle to 20 Friday though with lots of December sunshine and excellent visibility. More blue skies can be expected Saturday, a comfortable day thanks to calmer winds and near 30-degree afternoon temperatures following a chilly start. 

The period beginning Sunday and ending Tuesday has been targeted by the various longer ensembles as a potential thaw or mild weather for awhile now. The warmth doesn't appear excessive and Sunday's increase in clouds underneath a surface wedge ridge are expected to help keep readings in check. Above freezing temps and some light mixed precipitation or rain appear pegged for Tuesday, December 17th before colder weather reestablishes a presence in New England. It's not a great outlook next week, but this could have easily been worse. Furthermore, longer range ensembles are providing us with our first hints of what could be our next significant snow either around or just before this year's winter solstice. 

This is underscoring a key point at the end of the last update about the pattern fundamentals for the rest of 2024. I really like the jet stream action in the Pacific and been pleasantly surprised that we might very well see this regime reemerge around the holiday. A lot of unsettled weather is indicated in the mid-latitude Pacific and the easiest way I can describe that is to call it an evil empire inversion. A natural result of this, among a few others is for some ridging to develop in western North America, providing us with our mechanism for a colder flow of weather. At face value, ensembles show normal temperatures across New England Christmas week. If we manage to split the flow, with jet energy in the Pacific undercutting that ridge in western North America, we can spin ourselves up a storm prior to the start of 2025.

Some snow Monday night is followed by a heavy rain event Wednesday

Mad River Glen has been on a roll, scoring a few inches of snow on nearly a daily basis over the past 5 days. This stretch of weather gets capped off with a final few inches of snow, all coming in a span of a few hours Monday evening. Even as warm air encompasses much of the eastern Great Lakes region, sub-freezing temperatures will remain entrenched across northern Vermont through early Tuesday. The snow Monday evening is of the front-end thump variety, as a wave of low pressure, passing to the region's south, marks the advance of the milder temperatures with an accompanying area of precipitation. Snowfall totals will be in the familiar 2-4 inch range and though it might fall as powdery snow, Tuesday's near freezing temperatures will make this consistency a little wetter. Much of Tuesday is precipitation free, but the mid-level temperature environment is expected to warm considerably even as surface temperatures hover around the freezing mark. By the end of the day, a stronger area of low pressure will organize over the southeastern United States and as this strengthening storm travels northward, much of the cold will  have been scoured out of interior New England. 

December has always been a tricky month for winter weather in New England. Even with favorable weather pattern, the proximity of all that relative Atlantic Ocean warmth leaves the region so vulnerable to the rogue inland runner and a big temperature surge. Such is very much the case with the rain event set to smack us in the face on Wednesday. The track of this storm isn't even that bad with the current expectation having the primary low track very close to us Wednesday evening. The lastest Euro, released right at the time of this update has the track of the low east of us over New Hampshire which would be good enough for a colder storm and some snow on the back end, yet mostly we would still be wet. The low pressure center in question begins to take shape across over the southeast early Tuesday and strengthens quickly over the Ohio Valley, continuing to intensify on its track toward northern New England. The fact that this storm will have not reached maturation upon its arrival opens the door for the northward push of low and mid level tropospheric warmth. Light rain or freezing rain in some areas begins Tuesday night and becomes a steadier and then heavier rain on Wednesday with temperatures gradually warming toward 40 degrees. Depending on the eventual track of the low, there is the potential for a brief but intense temperature spike for a few hours Wednesday evening. We might avoid this if the low pressure area tracks over New Hampshire, but either way, we won't avoid the heavy rain which will amount to well over an inch and then change to snow early Thursday before ending. Colder weather appears more intense Thursday and Friday with readings in the 20's on the former (with gusty winds) and perhaps only in the teens during the latter. Single digit readings are possible during each of the upcoming weekend mornings though wind is expected to subside and sunshine is expected for at least the Saturday portion. 

There is a nice looking cold air damming signature beginning to show its face on model simulations Sunday and this does indicate the possibility for an east coast winter storm. Whether or not the impact of such an event could reach far enough into northern Vermont is a tough question. I would call it unlikely right now but stay tuned. 

The longer range outlook which includes both next week and the following week continue to improve. The general consensus continues to point toward a milder period early next week but this milder weather has looked considerably less intense over time and there are no signs of rain of any significance. Multiple ensembles show colder air making a return late next week and likely consuming the region for solstice weekend. Though the ensembles aren't indicating a strong signal one way or another for Christmas week, I am very encouraged with the EPO which is again expected to turn very negative in two weeks time. This combined with a mildly negative AO favors colder and snowier conditions in New England. We've had the misfortune of many rainy Christmas weeks over the past several years. To say we are due for something better would be an understatement !

Mad River Glen opening brings 3-6 inches fo snow Saturday night into early Sunday

Much like it did when the 2023-2024 season closed several months ago, the weather intends to fully cooperate with the December 7th/8th opening and that includes some snow Saturday night that's taken me by surprise. Several days back, I had made mention of a second weekend clipper system bringing some weekend snow potential only to watch models almost entirely remove it from the weather map the next day. I've been doing this long enough that I try to leave myself some room to be wrong or to correct and this is one of those instances.  

The Mad River Glen opener appears to be a cloudy one with a dusting of new snow, temperatures well below the freezing mark and substantially less wind than Friday. The clipper system is back from the dead as a warm advection event. Snow from this should begin well after the ski day Saturda,y late in the evening and is set to continue until the Sunday ski day beings. Expect a powdery 3-6 inches but one should also expect temperatures to warm close to the freezing mark Sunday afternoon. I mean it sorta goes without saying in any snow event, but those looking for the coldest snow will find it early in the day.  Most of the ski day Sunday will turn out dry with some clearing later in the day assisting that milder push of weather. 

The Saturday night clipper is not the only turn in the short term outlook. Colder air is expected to battle for some interior New England presence early next week making the temperature outlook colder overall though we are still expecting a mixed bag of weather. Monday's temperatures are no longer in the 40's as chilly high pressure in Canada is expected to turn the flow more northeasterly by Monday. Precipitation on the front end of a big storm system near Lake Superior  will collide with the aforementioned area of cold setting the stage for a nice front-end thump situation Monday evening that includes some snow or at least a snow/sleet mixture. Ultimately, a stronger pressure center is expected to organize across the southeast US and bring more significant amounts of moisture and a warmer mid-level environment to Vermont, but I am no longer so convinced surface temperatures will be all that warm at any point next week. We could certainly get wet for a time and experience a period of above-freezing weather, but I am going to leave some room for more changes on this one. This has moved in a nice direction over the past 48 hours and its quite possible to score some points on the back end of this as colder air enters the forecast picture Wednesday night into Thursday. 

The longer range has some positive developments way out on the horizon but the progression appears similar to the last update. Colder weather follows the big storm system on Wednesday, and should temperatures well below the freezing mark on the mountain through Saturday December 14th. Ensembles continue to hammer away at us with a mild period between the 15th and 18th of the month. After that however, the EPO index is expected to drop again allowing for jet stream ridge to potentially reestablish itself over western North America which would allow for a colder outlook closer to the winter solstice.

Clipper to bring a nice dose of snow to the northern Vermont high country

Happy Sugarbush opening day and MRG opening for Saturday ! The recent stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snow helped all of the Vermont mountains make progress on snowmaking. The upcoming snowfall which will begin late Wednesday and continue sporadically through Thursday evening will also help and sets northern Vermont up well for what should a nice first full weekend of December. The snow is associated with a feisty clipper system which is projected to pass right along Vermont's Canadian border early Thursday. The fact that this storm is passing so far north does negatively impact our snowfall potential some and also slows the coastal strengthening many of these systems undergo. Ultimately, the storm will get pretty wound up near the Gulf of St Lawrence and will help a nice surge of arctic chill envelop the region late Thursday into Friday. 

As for the snow. much of it will be light and sporadic beginning Wednesday evening and persisting through a good part of Thursday. Clearly we are not in the best conveyor of moisture in this time frame and there will be intervals where snow is either very light or not falling at all. As the storm begins strengthening to our northeast and the flow turns west and then northwest, the snow will intensify and we should expect a few hours of occasionally heavy snowfall on the mountains Thursday evening. Given how warm Lake Champlain remains as of early December, the corridor from Sugarbush northward to Jay Peak could do extraordinarily well before the ski day Friday. As for the particulars on amounts, I am a bit pessimistic on snow totals Wednesday night and early Thursday when 1 to as much as 4 inches is the likely range depending on your elevation. I am optimistic on snow totals Thursday evening when 3 to as much an additional 10 inches is the likely range, again depending mostly on your elevation. Expect winds to increase late Thursday and become very blustery by early Friday. Winds chills will be well below zero with actual temps hovering in the low teens for much of the ski day. Wind gusts could reach 40 mph or more closer to summit areas. It will remain windy and cold through Saturday though with a bit more sun and a less intense wind before clouds and moderating temperatures return for Sunday.

Going forward, we continue to see an adverse trend in the weather pattern. I was pleased to see the various teleconnection indicators neutralize and indicate a potential return of colder weather as we approach the winter solstice, but ensembles are indicating two surges of milder weather over the next 12 days. The first of which comes Monday and though we may dodge the worst of this mild weather, we should anticipate a bit of mixed precipitation and rainfall in the early part of next week. Colder weather is expected to return between December 11th and 13th before another and potentially bigger surge of milder weather threatens us around the 14th and persisting through the 16th. Not at all atypical to get rather erratic weather conditions in December and I've come to expect it, but it has been strange that so many of our recent winters have had these great teaser weeks in late November or early December only to give way to milder weather on or before the holiday.

Some snowfall late Wedneday into Thursday as December comes in wintry !

Our mountains are a few days in and about a foot of snow deep into this early dose of winter. The longer range outlook took a less than favorable turn on us, but the upcoming week still appears to be a productive one. We've been in a tight range on temperatures with just enough clouds and wind to keep readings above 20 degrees during the nights while only rising a few degrees during the daylight hours. 

That mostly cloudy sky is expected to be with us through much of this wintry week. Lighter snow showers are expected to continue with minimal accumulation through Tuesday and our best chance for some blue sky might be on a chilly Wednesday morning. Clouds are then expected to then thicken again with light snow developing in the afternoon. This is an impressive looking clipper system that is poised to bring us this burst of snow, but I sure wish we could get this sucker do dig a little harder on its southeast trajectory. Still we appear to be in the favorable quadrant of what is commonly  referred to in meteorological parlance as the "jet max" and results after Thursday night should be pretty good. A period of steady snows appears very likely, as mentioned Wednesday night, but the best snow may come late Thursday into early Friday with a plume of Champlain enhanced moisture and a beautiful cold northwest flow to blow that moisture toward us. 2-4 inches seems most likely during the first period of light snow Wednesday evening and then 4-8 inches of more elevation sensitive snow late Thursday into Thursday night. A healthy burst of early season chill will accompany this later burst of snow and Friday's temperatures on the mountain are likely to stay in the teens. 

A second clipper system, weaker than its predecessor is expected to bring more clouds and some snow for Saturday and will help extend the stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. A little early to speak on snowfall expectations except to suggest it looks higher than zero and lower than 6. 

I've been operating under the assumption we would get another week of colder weather similar to the current one and though arctic air remains a significant part of the picture, the long wave pattern appears a bit different with cold expected to shift its focus westward. The biggest concern with this change relates to the possibility of an area of low pressure taking an inland route of bringing warmer weather and a spat of rainfall. There are a couple of different directions this could still go and models have been painting a variety of possible outcomes though the one early Monday appeared warmer unfortunately. 

Another round of sub-freezing temperatures is expected to follow whatever scenario happens early in the week before ensembles indicate another potential western North America jet amplification for the 2nd full weekend of December. Still some good news in that we are not going to lose the support of a more favorable Pacific jet stream. Additionally, ensembles indicate ridging over Alaska which should keep arctic air well-positioned to envelop much of Canada. We are way, way behind with Hudson Bay ice so far this cold season with less than 5 percent of that northern body of water showing ice cover as of December 1st. The Hudson Bay has been freezing later in recent years thanks to the impacts of climate change, but even with these headwinds, 20-30 percent of that 500,000 square mile region should have ice by now. The presence of arctic air should help reduce the open water over the next 2 weeks. 

Terrific early season weather pattern prevails through at least the middle of December !

Beautiful Thanksgiving snowfall in northern Vermont was scenic and brought us a step closer to opening day. It appears Sugarbush has a tentative opening planned for December 1st but I have no inside intel aside from what the website is showing except to say that favorable snowmaking conditions will continue for the upcoming week and beyond. 

The prevailing west flow encompassing both the eastern Great Lakes area and all of New England is a dry one for Vermont. The lake effect snow bands tend to ring themselves out over the Adirondacks and the moisture from Lake Champlain is typically deposited in areas from Stowe northward. The high country will remain sub-freezing atop our new found late November snow, but addional snow showers will be light through the weekend and I would extend this outlook through much of Monday. Temperatures on the mountain will stay within a 10 degree range of 15-25 and generally below 20 in summit locations through this time in spite of some limited sunshine. 

I've been looking for that flow to turn more northerly and tap into some of that relative warmth from Lake Champlain and the opportunity for that, though limited, appears on the forecast maps Monday evening into Tuesday. If we can get a few inches, it would be of the very powdery and fluffy variety accompanied by temperatures in the low 20's. Those wintry readings will continue into the later part of the week when a much more impressive looking clipper system brings us our next decent show at some significant snow late Wednesday into Thursday. This storm has the capability of attaining some additional strength as it interacts with the warm coastal waters of the Atlantic Ocean and this opens the door for some higher upside potential. A more significant chunk of early season arctic cold will then envelop Vermont on Friday and into the first full weekend of December. Daytime temperatures might fail to break 20 degrees either Friday, Saturday or both. 

The pattern overall appears supportive of colder weather for the first half of December thanks again to favorable jet stream conditions in the Pacific. The American Ensembles shift some of this colder weather westward around December 14th/15th. By contrast the European Ensembles manage to keep some of the ridging structure alive in western North America while the weakened Pacific jet conditions are shown to at least somewhat persist. Even the possibility that the colder could persist beyond the 15th would suggest one of the best December setups in years for Vermont ski country.