It has been long overdue but our time has finally come. A big surge of arctic air in the Plains will clash with very warm moist air from the gulf and the byproduct will be an intense winter storm. The effects will be very broad across the middle part of the country Tuesday into Wednesday as many cities such as Kansas City, St Louis and Chicago may see a historic snow. There was speculation amongst some that this would eventually turn into another major snow for the I95 corridor and considering the intensity of the storm some of this talk was perhaps justified. This particular system though will track across lower Ohio eventually hug the south coast of New England and move out over the Atlantic thus sparing the big cities any big snow.
This storm will resist attempts at reaching full maturation while over the Midwest and maintain a slightly positive tilt as moisture reaches northern Vermont and this is a very key element to our success. If the storm were to wrap itself up and occlude over the Midwest it suck mild air into the east coast and we would meet our doom rather quickly. A rather intense jet streak or confluence area across eastern Canada will prevent such an occurrence and the mountain will instead reep the benefits of the clash in moist conveyor belts. Snow will begin during the day Tuesday as overrunning precipitation extends well out in advance of the low pressure center. It will continue through the night Tuesday, through Wednesday while at times becoming quite intense and finally taper to flurries Thursday. So long as everything goes according to plan, accumulations of 20-30 inches on the mountain would be my expectation with big time powder days both Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will remain on the chilly side through the week and particularly late Thursday into Friday in the wake of the storm. The weekend should see readings rebound back into the 20's during the afternoons. There have been hints that another storm may form near the Virginia tidewater and make a run up the east coast Sunday morning but there have been yet to be any indications that this will result in any big snow for MRG. An early guess on the first full week of February is that the week begins with temperatures on the milder side, we see some snow and then temperatures turn very cold as intense arctic chill in Canada sneaks into New England. Teleconnection indices have turned on us somewhat as mentioned in the last post so although we still expect to see some cold, conditions could turn very changeable and a thaw in the first two weeks of February is possible.
For now lets enjoy this one since we have waited a long time for one like this.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Friday, January 28, 2011
Most of weekend clipper system to go south, big storm possible next week
To be perfectly frank, I was a little down watching another foot of snow fall in New York city. Don't get me wrong, when I live in NYC, which i did for several years, I enjoyed a big snow more than anyone. I don't live there now though and I would much rather here about snow, thundersnow and three inch per hour snow somewhere in the vicinity of the single chair as opposed to the big metros. The snow in the big cities this year has caught many prognosticators by surprise. Conventional wisdom, as mentioned many times on the blog would have the general storm track in a La Nina year much farther north. Its also a little frustrating that most of the moisture with the incoming clipper will track south of the region while more or less fall apart. The mountain will get sporadic light snow or flurries and this will amount to 1-3 inches during the day Saturday. More flurries are likely Sunday but it won't amount to much.
A more "traditional" La Nina picture will emerge next week and I expect the mountain should do rather well powder-wise as a result. There was some strong evidence on the Euro Ensembles earlier this week of a southeast ridge manifestation and a storm to go along with it. This weather would gather healthy amounts of Gulf Moisture and travel up through the eastern Ohio Valley and eventually off the northeast coast. This would be a nice track for a general swath of 10-20 inch snows across the Green and White moutais in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame of next week after a very cold and dry start to the week Monday and Tuesday. The storm remains 5-6 days out and the trend this year has been for every storm to track farther south so lets not count our chickens. For now, it does look promising for a nice "powder" period late next week.
For the first time this year really, the collection of teleconnection indices which add to produce our "favorability index" will turn negative. The PNA had taken the lead in the recent weeks as a western ridge extending deep into the high latitudes helped to bring the recent surge of cold and keep the snow falling and the rain away (although recent days have been dry). The PNA is expected to go negative beginning next week as the above-mentioned western ridge shifts west off the Pacific Coast and both the AO and NAO are expected to remain positive. We have been overdue for this shift but the silver lining in all this news is that the ensembles have (all of them) continue to show a signal of below normal temps and a somewhat decisive signal I must admit. The coldest weather is shown to impact much of the eastern part of Canada (which has been amazingly warm so far this winter) and some of this cold is indicated to keep New England in the grips of some winter chill. If this shift in the weather pattern means nothing more than shifting the storm track slightly to the north than the bad news is actually good news. In reality though, the threat of ice or rain goes up in this type of set-up so we should be ready for almost anything.
A more "traditional" La Nina picture will emerge next week and I expect the mountain should do rather well powder-wise as a result. There was some strong evidence on the Euro Ensembles earlier this week of a southeast ridge manifestation and a storm to go along with it. This weather would gather healthy amounts of Gulf Moisture and travel up through the eastern Ohio Valley and eventually off the northeast coast. This would be a nice track for a general swath of 10-20 inch snows across the Green and White moutais in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame of next week after a very cold and dry start to the week Monday and Tuesday. The storm remains 5-6 days out and the trend this year has been for every storm to track farther south so lets not count our chickens. For now, it does look promising for a nice "powder" period late next week.
For the first time this year really, the collection of teleconnection indices which add to produce our "favorability index" will turn negative. The PNA had taken the lead in the recent weeks as a western ridge extending deep into the high latitudes helped to bring the recent surge of cold and keep the snow falling and the rain away (although recent days have been dry). The PNA is expected to go negative beginning next week as the above-mentioned western ridge shifts west off the Pacific Coast and both the AO and NAO are expected to remain positive. We have been overdue for this shift but the silver lining in all this news is that the ensembles have (all of them) continue to show a signal of below normal temps and a somewhat decisive signal I must admit. The coldest weather is shown to impact much of the eastern part of Canada (which has been amazingly warm so far this winter) and some of this cold is indicated to keep New England in the grips of some winter chill. If this shift in the weather pattern means nothing more than shifting the storm track slightly to the north than the bad news is actually good news. In reality though, the threat of ice or rain goes up in this type of set-up so we should be ready for almost anything.
Monday, January 24, 2011
Midweek storm likely to push off shore
Although the mountain will pick up snow from a decaying clipper Tuesday, the rare 2011 southern branch system which had showed some promise will bring its moisture into a cold but very stale arctic air mass. The storm will help to envelop relative Atlantic Ocean warmth to coastal areas and will fail to make the northward push necessary to yield any significant snow Thursday across the central and northern Green Mountains. An 11th hour northward tick in the track could result in a few inches but that would be the high side of an expected range.
The good news is that two more potent weather systems elevate the powder potential over the next week to ten days. The first is a fierce clipper system which will pave the way for the next surge of arctic cold across the Great Lakes and northeast late on Saturday and early on Sunday. A few inches of powder is certainly in the cards by Sunday morning as a result of that. The second would arrive during the early to middle part of next week and would hypothetically form along a tight north to south temperature gradient as mild and moist gulf air tries to force the arctic chill into a retreat. The second in particular is a long way off but worth tracking.
The good news is that two more potent weather systems elevate the powder potential over the next week to ten days. The first is a fierce clipper system which will pave the way for the next surge of arctic cold across the Great Lakes and northeast late on Saturday and early on Sunday. A few inches of powder is certainly in the cards by Sunday morning as a result of that. The second would arrive during the early to middle part of next week and would hypothetically form along a tight north to south temperature gradient as mild and moist gulf air tries to force the arctic chill into a retreat. The second in particular is a long way off but worth tracking.
Saturday, January 22, 2011
Another big east coast storms brings familar question marks and uncertainty
A very frozen interior New England will see temperatures moderate to more reasonable levels by the middle of next week but all eyes will be focused on another major east coast system which intends to slowly gather strength across the southeast on Tuesday and move up the coast Wednesday. This storm brings all sorts of question marks with it no matter where you live. Until then though we can look forward to some lighter snows that we feel more certain about. A decaying clipper system will move swiftly through the Great Lakes and brings some limited moisture to the region Tuesday. This is a very typical occurrence for interior New England following a blast of extreme cold. Attempts at a quick warm-up typically provide the region with a natural overrunning surface and it will thus find a way to snow. I expect a few inches during the day Tuesday but I doubt enough we will have much at first tracks time, it will more than likely be powdered to be enjoyed in the afternoon or during the early morning on Wednesday.
Now to the questions regarding this potential massive east coast system. One of the key ingredients for any major east coast snow event is a cold air damming signature created as arctic air becomes entrenched along the east. We certainly have such a case Monday with extreme cold very much in place Monday. The system in question though is indicated to take its sweet time in its west to east movement Monday not helped certainly by the weakened southern branch of the jet (no El Nino this year). When it finally develops and proceeds up the east coast Wednesday, much of the arctic air will be very stale and many coastal areas could actually see rain. This is not a concern for interior locations of New England such as MRG. The big issue at this time is the recent trends seen in the model data that have this system moving farther off shore. A track close to the coast and hopefully through that critical window between Boston and the cape can mean a big result for us MRG powder hounds later Wednesday into Thursday. We will watch how this unfolds and hope. We deserve a big storm to play in and at some point one of these battles will go our way.
The month should finish and February should start with plenty on the dinner table. The driving force behind the pattern so far this has been the negative Arctic Oscillation and frequent dips in the NAO. The PNA has really not made much of a contribution until now. The Pacific North American oscillation index has surged into positive territory thanks to the development of a ridge across the west coast. This is the feature necessary for more outbreaks of extreme cold mixed in with more weather. It should result in much of the weather we expected this winter with blasts of extreme cold mixed in with weather, most of which should be good but a brief thaw can certainly interject itself into the picture. Overall I remain very upbeat about several powder days in the next two weeks
Now to the questions regarding this potential massive east coast system. One of the key ingredients for any major east coast snow event is a cold air damming signature created as arctic air becomes entrenched along the east. We certainly have such a case Monday with extreme cold very much in place Monday. The system in question though is indicated to take its sweet time in its west to east movement Monday not helped certainly by the weakened southern branch of the jet (no El Nino this year). When it finally develops and proceeds up the east coast Wednesday, much of the arctic air will be very stale and many coastal areas could actually see rain. This is not a concern for interior locations of New England such as MRG. The big issue at this time is the recent trends seen in the model data that have this system moving farther off shore. A track close to the coast and hopefully through that critical window between Boston and the cape can mean a big result for us MRG powder hounds later Wednesday into Thursday. We will watch how this unfolds and hope. We deserve a big storm to play in and at some point one of these battles will go our way.
The month should finish and February should start with plenty on the dinner table. The driving force behind the pattern so far this has been the negative Arctic Oscillation and frequent dips in the NAO. The PNA has really not made much of a contribution until now. The Pacific North American oscillation index has surged into positive territory thanks to the development of a ridge across the west coast. This is the feature necessary for more outbreaks of extreme cold mixed in with more weather. It should result in much of the weather we expected this winter with blasts of extreme cold mixed in with weather, most of which should be good but a brief thaw can certainly interject itself into the picture. Overall I remain very upbeat about several powder days in the next two weeks
Thursday, January 20, 2011
Blast of extreme cold to hit Vermont
If you intend to take advantage of the several inches of fresh powder this weekend bundle up. Vermont has escaped the cold weather through all of last winter and most of this winter but no more. New England will be front and center for the cold this weekend which will slowly settle into the region late on Friday and peak out Monday. Temperatures will be close to zero Saturday morning with 20 below wind chills and between Sunday morning and Tuesday morning readings are likely to remain below zero with wind chills 40 below. Readings Monday morning of -20 will be easily the coldest since 2009. The cold will relent next week and we will shift our focus to a major east coast system which will evolve out of the massive cold air damming signature. This system has many question marks but for Vermont it remains mostly a "snow or no" during the middle of next week. More on this tomorrow.
Monday, January 17, 2011
Several inches of snow Tuesday, only a brief period of rain Tuesday
Another couple rounds of model data have allowed us to fine tune the forecast and the fine tuning has a bit of good news. Snow should begin on schedule tomorrow but it appears some of the deeper moisture associated with the developing Atlantic system will move into north-central Vermont while temperatures are still supportive for snow. To make an attempt at exactitude, lets say about 10 AM for a start with snow falling at a moderate intensity by early afternoon. By early evening we should have at least 3-6 inches of snow on the ground while we try and fight off the surge of mid-level warmth that will have temperatures close to the freezing mark at about 7,000 feet.
This critical layer of warming looks thinner on the latest cycle runs and perhaps thin enough and weak enough so that we can avoid a deadly period of freezing rain. A mixture of snow and sleet, which is pretty much the best case scenario would still have the effect of locking down some of our deepened base without the problematic breakable crust. Its too close to call at this point so lets just say it can go either way.
Moving on to later in the week where the SCWB has teased about another significant snow producer. Indeed we are starting to establish a much better consensus on a storm which should track out of the southern Rockies Wednesday and proceed across the country during the day Friday. The storm appears to be a late bloomer, like many east coast storms. Precipitation will appear scattered and disorganized across the Great Lakes but intensify as the storm begins the deepen off the New Jersey coast. This particular system will get a big kick in the rear end by the incoming polar jet and will proceed very quickly out into the maritimes. Its track however, which we think right now is over Cape Cod, would have us getting several inches of the good stuff by Friday first tracks. The disclaimer here is the cold. It is finally our turn to get the full onslaught of winter's chill. We will get what some might call a "foreshock" Thursday with temperatures near 10 on the mountain but temperatures will plummet to near zero in the wake of any snow Friday and fall to between -10 and -20 each of the two weekend mornings.
A positive PNA will become the driver of a still favorable pattern beyond the 23rd of the month and likely to the end of the month. There is likely at least one more big snow producer in the mix during this time frame as temperatures try to moderate. I say "try" because we are likely to see another push of cold at some point during the last week of January but the ensembles at face value indicate that this weekend could be the coldest of the year for much of New England.
This critical layer of warming looks thinner on the latest cycle runs and perhaps thin enough and weak enough so that we can avoid a deadly period of freezing rain. A mixture of snow and sleet, which is pretty much the best case scenario would still have the effect of locking down some of our deepened base without the problematic breakable crust. Its too close to call at this point so lets just say it can go either way.
Moving on to later in the week where the SCWB has teased about another significant snow producer. Indeed we are starting to establish a much better consensus on a storm which should track out of the southern Rockies Wednesday and proceed across the country during the day Friday. The storm appears to be a late bloomer, like many east coast storms. Precipitation will appear scattered and disorganized across the Great Lakes but intensify as the storm begins the deepen off the New Jersey coast. This particular system will get a big kick in the rear end by the incoming polar jet and will proceed very quickly out into the maritimes. Its track however, which we think right now is over Cape Cod, would have us getting several inches of the good stuff by Friday first tracks. The disclaimer here is the cold. It is finally our turn to get the full onslaught of winter's chill. We will get what some might call a "foreshock" Thursday with temperatures near 10 on the mountain but temperatures will plummet to near zero in the wake of any snow Friday and fall to between -10 and -20 each of the two weekend mornings.
A positive PNA will become the driver of a still favorable pattern beyond the 23rd of the month and likely to the end of the month. There is likely at least one more big snow producer in the mix during this time frame as temperatures try to moderate. I say "try" because we are likely to see another push of cold at some point during the last week of January but the ensembles at face value indicate that this weekend could be the coldest of the year for much of New England.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
La Nina finally showing its face after long absence
and with it comes a drastic sharpening of the north to south temperature gradient across the United States and a baraclinic area stretching from the Ohio Valley to the northeast early this week. With this comes a significant weather system that start as a disorganized storm in the Midwest early this week but with a big injection of moisture from the Atlantic will evolve into a major precipitation producer across much of New England. This is a very different type of storm than what we have seen this year and much more typical of a storm one might expect in a strong La Nina year such as this one. As mentioned a few days ago, the region will have to survive a tremendous push of mid-level warmth. Temperature cross sections reveal that it might be a tough go, for a time as precipitation is likely to start as a sleet or freezing rain mixture. As the storm over the Atlantic coast continues to push northeast, move over the cape and deepen, precipitation will become heavier and consequently we should see just enough cooling at these critical layers of the atmosphere to see freezing rain and sleet change to snow. It is so close right now it really could go either way, the level of warmth at these middle layers is a few thousand feet thick and temperatures in this layer will only be about 34 so just a slight shift in this progression and we could be all snow.
Precipitation should begin as snow in the midday hours Tuesday and this icy mix, if it does occur will take place in the evening or overnight hours and then we should see another additional period of snow Wednesday morning before everything tapers off. I am going to say about 6-10 inches of snow sleet and some freezing rain right now. My computer is about to run out of batteries so I will expand on the post later to discuss another possible storm later in the week and what still appears to be a favorable pattern lasting into next week.
Precipitation should begin as snow in the midday hours Tuesday and this icy mix, if it does occur will take place in the evening or overnight hours and then we should see another additional period of snow Wednesday morning before everything tapers off. I am going to say about 6-10 inches of snow sleet and some freezing rain right now. My computer is about to run out of batteries so I will expand on the post later to discuss another possible storm later in the week and what still appears to be a favorable pattern lasting into next week.
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