Lots of exciting times are on the horizon but I am bitter about the upcoming weekend. This time we had nearly a 2-week stretch of extreme cold including several days of -20, we have ice on a third of Lake Ontario and nearly all of Lake Huron (first time for that in 20 years) and yet our first big precipitation event in the "activated" pattern will be a snow to ice event. According to the Euro, precipitation has the chance of changing to freezing rain and even rain for a short time. The weekend system is not especially strong. It will travel up through the eastern Great Lakes and without any hesitation, head into the St Lawrence Valley, bringing its push of warmth into interior New England. We should see some snow late in the day Saturday as temperatures moderate to the freezing mark, but the snow will taper off and precipitation will continue as drizzle or freezing drizzle. By Sunday morning, temperatures could be a few degrees above freezing and we could see a few rain showers early in the day if the Euro model turns out to be correct and I am afraid it might be. I know a lot of forecasts out there including the NWS are more or less suggesting primarily a snow event and I am still hopeful but not encouraged by some of the latest indications.
So with that negativity out of my system lets talk about next week. In the last update I mistakenly thought Wednesday was the 4th and thus advertised that storm for the "4th". It is however the 5th, not the 4th and it is this storm and this day we are getting increasingly excited about. Models have been fairly consistent with the exception of perhaps one cycle and have generally been showing a healthy and very moist system moving out of Texas into the Ohio Valley and ultimately right at interior New England. Unlike the weekend event, the storm will transfer much of its energy to the coast and unlike the weekend event, we will have a fresh supply of cold air to work with both in front of this system and behind it. Nonetheless, we still have to hope the storm cuts a bit further south verses some current indications. I don't think the current track is suggesting any ice or rain but we could see a heavy snow to sleet event and could also be impacted by a dry slot if the area of low pressure tracks too close to the region. Optimistically speaking, if the storm tracks close to where the ensembles have it, the snow totals could be impressive and we will be back in business across all of northern and central Vermont.
Thursday, January 30, 2014
Wednesday, January 29, 2014
Active pattern approaching and the storm watch is beginning to gaze at February 4
We are getting close to February which means it's "crunch time" as far as the ski season goes. It certainly will be "crunch time" in this ski season since we are approaching a much more active period of weather. The region will have some tepid support from a loosely negative AO but the long wave pattern will refocus much of the cold on the western or central third of the country. In short, this means that storms which form as a result of the often mentioned split flow scenario will take aim at interior New England and should bring lots of precipitation our way.
Given how this year has progressed and given some of the model data, there is going to be some understandable consternation. Each of the next several winter weather events will involve a mild push of air which will try and dislodge some well entrenched arctic cold. This type of battle can be a fruitful one so long as we avoid the ice or rain which sometimes briefly accompanies these storms.
The above paragraph was the disclaimer. The weather itself should consist of continued relative cold and mostly dry weather through Thursday. A decaying boundary should then spread light snow or flurries into the Green Mountains Friday which could result in a light accumulation. The snow should be accompanied by a big temperature moderation as readings could inch close to 30 during the afternoon hours. Most of the daytime hours Saturday will be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds, but this new and much discussed pattern will begin to manifest itself during the weekend. The first results will come in the form of a garden variety storm system which will travel from the southern plains right into northern New England Sunday. With this storm will come a push of milder temperatures that will make an attempt to penetrate the region. A period of primarily snow should be the primary consequence Saturday night with a 2-6 inch accumulation by Sunday morning. If the storm were to track farther north, a period of sleet or freezing rain could occur prior to daybreak Sunday after the snow. Most of Sunday should feature temperatures near the freezing mark with flurries .
The storm that should consume most of our attention is a weather system that might impact the region around the time of Wednesday February 4th. This storm will move out of the southern Rockies early next week and will have a considerable amount of time to gather lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before it tracks northeast, again, toward New England. This storm could bring a massive amount of precipitation with it as it tracks northeast, and with the correct infusion of upper air support, could become one of the bigger winter weather systems to impact the region this year. The range of possibilities though remains pretty wide a week out however. The storm could hug the coast and deliver the region only a glancing blow with snow as some recent runs of the American model have suggested. The aforementioned pattern supports a more inland track and one that could deliver interior New England either a big snow storm or a snow to ice event. It will be typical New England weather drama but we should have a decent chunk of cold to work with, both in front of, and in back of this storm so I am hopeful for a very positive result.
Another in a series of these weather systems could then impact the region around the weekend of the 8th and 9th. This happens after another stretch of cold weather at the end of the first full week of February. We said goodbye to an absolute folk music legend yesterday in Pete Seeger. What a full life he lived and I was lucky to be included in a very small slice of it. My mother helped to organize a benefit concert at my future high school and he was gracious enough to dine with us in our home after the show. I was 10 at the time and completely oblivious to the fact that we had hosted a living legend. Thanks for all your poetry and music PS, it was and will be an inspiration.
Given how this year has progressed and given some of the model data, there is going to be some understandable consternation. Each of the next several winter weather events will involve a mild push of air which will try and dislodge some well entrenched arctic cold. This type of battle can be a fruitful one so long as we avoid the ice or rain which sometimes briefly accompanies these storms.
The above paragraph was the disclaimer. The weather itself should consist of continued relative cold and mostly dry weather through Thursday. A decaying boundary should then spread light snow or flurries into the Green Mountains Friday which could result in a light accumulation. The snow should be accompanied by a big temperature moderation as readings could inch close to 30 during the afternoon hours. Most of the daytime hours Saturday will be dry with seasonable temperatures and light winds, but this new and much discussed pattern will begin to manifest itself during the weekend. The first results will come in the form of a garden variety storm system which will travel from the southern plains right into northern New England Sunday. With this storm will come a push of milder temperatures that will make an attempt to penetrate the region. A period of primarily snow should be the primary consequence Saturday night with a 2-6 inch accumulation by Sunday morning. If the storm were to track farther north, a period of sleet or freezing rain could occur prior to daybreak Sunday after the snow. Most of Sunday should feature temperatures near the freezing mark with flurries .
The storm that should consume most of our attention is a weather system that might impact the region around the time of Wednesday February 4th. This storm will move out of the southern Rockies early next week and will have a considerable amount of time to gather lots of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico before it tracks northeast, again, toward New England. This storm could bring a massive amount of precipitation with it as it tracks northeast, and with the correct infusion of upper air support, could become one of the bigger winter weather systems to impact the region this year. The range of possibilities though remains pretty wide a week out however. The storm could hug the coast and deliver the region only a glancing blow with snow as some recent runs of the American model have suggested. The aforementioned pattern supports a more inland track and one that could deliver interior New England either a big snow storm or a snow to ice event. It will be typical New England weather drama but we should have a decent chunk of cold to work with, both in front of, and in back of this storm so I am hopeful for a very positive result.
Another in a series of these weather systems could then impact the region around the weekend of the 8th and 9th. This happens after another stretch of cold weather at the end of the first full week of February. We said goodbye to an absolute folk music legend yesterday in Pete Seeger. What a full life he lived and I was lucky to be included in a very small slice of it. My mother helped to organize a benefit concert at my future high school and he was gracious enough to dine with us in our home after the show. I was 10 at the time and completely oblivious to the fact that we had hosted a living legend. Thanks for all your poetry and music PS, it was and will be an inspiration.
Sunday, January 26, 2014
Opportunities for big snow increase as we move into February but the core of arctic cold shifts west
The Vermont I know and love seems to be getting back to its normal wintry self. A couple of these little clipper systems have over performed and the mountain is quite literally "inching" closer to a optimal February. That all being said, we have some hurdles to jump over in early February as the core of the arctic cold shifts toward the west. There are some competing forces at play, which can prove to be a very good thing many times, but can be nerve racking as the margin between snow and ice and rain can often be razor thin.
In the shorter term, the mountain will get the benefits of a second clipper system. Some snow Sunday night and an additional period of snow Monday should amount to an additional 2-5 inches. Monday will feature temperatures in the 20's but another arctic onslaught is poised to send temperatures plummeting across the eastern half of the United States. In a relative sense, New England will get spared the worst extremes of this airmass (the Midwest will get that) but readings will fall below zero again on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights and struggle to reach 10 both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should moderate somewhat. The only snow during the middle part of the week will probably come Tuesday from instability or terrain induced snow showers and flurries.
We just continue to watch and wait for hints of a big storm. As I have pointed out this becomes more likely as we move toward February. The giant upper ridge in western North America responsible for the hugely positive PNA will subside, retrograding both north toward the pole and west into the northern Pacific. There will be energy in the Pacific undercutting this ridge, thus the split flow and thus the opportunity, we hope, for some big things. Because of this pattern evolution, the core of the arctic cold will shift decisively west and this type of long wave pattern puts New England in a battleground as arctic cold will have to fight off milder temperatures for control of the region.
As of Sunday morning, there is some stronger evidence of at least a semi organized weather system around Super Bowl Sunday or shortly thereafter. A storm that will gather strength in the southern plains and head northeast toward New England. In the last 24-48 hours, various models have shown a plethora of results ranging from a big snow event to a snow/ice event. It certainly has the makings of what could be a very good situation for interior New England as a whole but any push of mild air makes us nervous. Beyond the 2nd and 3rd, I expect at least two additional systems to impact the region and with the arctic oscillation settling comfortably into a favorable negative index I think the results should at least be somewhat positive. Still the pattern is not completely aligned with the center of cold favored over the central or western part of North America.
In the shorter term, the mountain will get the benefits of a second clipper system. Some snow Sunday night and an additional period of snow Monday should amount to an additional 2-5 inches. Monday will feature temperatures in the 20's but another arctic onslaught is poised to send temperatures plummeting across the eastern half of the United States. In a relative sense, New England will get spared the worst extremes of this airmass (the Midwest will get that) but readings will fall below zero again on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday nights and struggle to reach 10 both Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday should moderate somewhat. The only snow during the middle part of the week will probably come Tuesday from instability or terrain induced snow showers and flurries.
We just continue to watch and wait for hints of a big storm. As I have pointed out this becomes more likely as we move toward February. The giant upper ridge in western North America responsible for the hugely positive PNA will subside, retrograding both north toward the pole and west into the northern Pacific. There will be energy in the Pacific undercutting this ridge, thus the split flow and thus the opportunity, we hope, for some big things. Because of this pattern evolution, the core of the arctic cold will shift decisively west and this type of long wave pattern puts New England in a battleground as arctic cold will have to fight off milder temperatures for control of the region.
As of Sunday morning, there is some stronger evidence of at least a semi organized weather system around Super Bowl Sunday or shortly thereafter. A storm that will gather strength in the southern plains and head northeast toward New England. In the last 24-48 hours, various models have shown a plethora of results ranging from a big snow event to a snow/ice event. It certainly has the makings of what could be a very good situation for interior New England as a whole but any push of mild air makes us nervous. Beyond the 2nd and 3rd, I expect at least two additional systems to impact the region and with the arctic oscillation settling comfortably into a favorable negative index I think the results should at least be somewhat positive. Still the pattern is not completely aligned with the center of cold favored over the central or western part of North America.
Thursday, January 23, 2014
Clipper City Ale - The beer of choice
The old microbrew from Baltimore, MD, was sadly retired. When I looked up the web page, knowing I would reference it in the blog, it no longer existed. It remains however, the beer that comes to mind when we are expecting snow from multiple clippers. I sense some grumpiness regarding the weather pattern which is understandable. The mountain has endured a 4-day period of generally sub-zero temperatures and although we did get some snow on MLK day, we need a lot more to really make it happen for us.
I can't promise a big storm over the next 4 days but we should do nicely from our Clipper City Ale scenario. The first, a dynamic, coma-shaped surface feature, will rotate around our "hashtagged" polar vortex and spread snow to the Green Mountain range Saturday morning. The snow won't be particularly intense at any point during the day but should continue through the evening. The snow will be of a fluffy variety as it often is in clippers, and 3-5 inches of this low density stuff is what I would expect by late at night Saturday. Temperatures will moderate into the lower 20's Saturday with the snow but will fall sharply back into the single digits Sunday, the drier of the two days. The next clipper marks the entrance of a massive intrusion of arctic chill. Snow from this will arrive Sunday night and persist through early Monday. Once again, this system is capable of bringing another few inches (lets call it 2-4). It then turns brutally cold Monday evening into the overnight as the PV drops into the northern Great Lakes and then swings through southern Quebec Tuesday.
Unfortunately, and two days since this last update, there is no evidence of a late next week storm on any of the medium range operational models and I would not expect any talk of one. Not to say it can't happen but there is no evidence that any serious energy in the southern branch of the jet stream until the beginning of February. This isn't to say that it can't happen but that it simply doesn't look good as of now. The overall evolution of this pattern appears relatively in line with what was discussed previously. The extreme cold that was caused by the super-positive PDO regime will give way to a more variable but relatively normal temperature range. The combination however of some lingering cold and a more active jet stream should make for some exciting stuff I am hoping as we head into the month of February.
I can't promise a big storm over the next 4 days but we should do nicely from our Clipper City Ale scenario. The first, a dynamic, coma-shaped surface feature, will rotate around our "hashtagged" polar vortex and spread snow to the Green Mountain range Saturday morning. The snow won't be particularly intense at any point during the day but should continue through the evening. The snow will be of a fluffy variety as it often is in clippers, and 3-5 inches of this low density stuff is what I would expect by late at night Saturday. Temperatures will moderate into the lower 20's Saturday with the snow but will fall sharply back into the single digits Sunday, the drier of the two days. The next clipper marks the entrance of a massive intrusion of arctic chill. Snow from this will arrive Sunday night and persist through early Monday. Once again, this system is capable of bringing another few inches (lets call it 2-4). It then turns brutally cold Monday evening into the overnight as the PV drops into the northern Great Lakes and then swings through southern Quebec Tuesday.
Unfortunately, and two days since this last update, there is no evidence of a late next week storm on any of the medium range operational models and I would not expect any talk of one. Not to say it can't happen but there is no evidence that any serious energy in the southern branch of the jet stream until the beginning of February. This isn't to say that it can't happen but that it simply doesn't look good as of now. The overall evolution of this pattern appears relatively in line with what was discussed previously. The extreme cold that was caused by the super-positive PDO regime will give way to a more variable but relatively normal temperature range. The combination however of some lingering cold and a more active jet stream should make for some exciting stuff I am hoping as we head into the month of February.
Tuesday, January 21, 2014
It's all about the "Polar Vortex"
Very cold weather has enveloped the state and particularly the high country where temperatures even during the day have remained below zero Tuesday. This general theme should continue through the duration of the week and aside for a few insignificant flurries, it will remain dry. We had hoped a clipper Thursday could provide a little refreshening but the Polar Jet obliterates this thing before any constructive interaction can occur with the Atlantic Ocean. On Friday we should see temperatures inch above the zero line and with light winds and good visibility, it should almost feel nice.
Our next very good chance of snow comes Saturday from another clipper. These types of systems often lack substantial amounts of moisture but this one is a bit more dynamic and will mark the advance of a reenforcing shot of chill for Sunday. Light snow should begin pretty early in the day and continue through the evening. I don't expect we see a major accumulation from this but 2-4 inches is a good preliminary guess. Saturday's temps should also moderate, reaching the low 20's as the snow is flying. Flurries will continue through a good part of Sunday as well but we are back in the deep freeze with daytime temperatures between zero and 10.
The media has fallen in love with the "polar vortex" phrase and why not. It's an easy hashtag on twitter and a charismatic headline for cable news. This particular "vortex" of cold in the jet stream will position itself south of the Hudson Bay and impulses rotating around this feature will continuously bring big shots of extreme cold to New England over the next week. The last of these impulses and potentially the biggest shot of cold arrives early next week. I think we can be pretty sure that temperatures will nosedive toward the -20 degree range Tuesday or maybe Wednesday morning. The question relates to yet another clipper associated with this last PV impulse and whether or not it can deliver some additional snows to the region Monday. At this point it seems reasonable to expect at least a little.
Beyond the middle part of the week, it still appears as if the jet stream will split across western North America. A significant and potentially fruitful development. We should see a big increase in storminess across the country and there are now indications of that on various models late next week into early February. At the same time, we should see temperatures moderate; in fact, readings could actually creep above average by early February. In the end, there should be enough competing forces in the overall pattern to make this a potentially very good period for Vermont. The split flow across the west and just enough cold air positioned across Canada could be the ticket to some big snows. The first of these may or may not occur between January 30 and Feb 1 with additional chances thereafter.
Our next very good chance of snow comes Saturday from another clipper. These types of systems often lack substantial amounts of moisture but this one is a bit more dynamic and will mark the advance of a reenforcing shot of chill for Sunday. Light snow should begin pretty early in the day and continue through the evening. I don't expect we see a major accumulation from this but 2-4 inches is a good preliminary guess. Saturday's temps should also moderate, reaching the low 20's as the snow is flying. Flurries will continue through a good part of Sunday as well but we are back in the deep freeze with daytime temperatures between zero and 10.
The media has fallen in love with the "polar vortex" phrase and why not. It's an easy hashtag on twitter and a charismatic headline for cable news. This particular "vortex" of cold in the jet stream will position itself south of the Hudson Bay and impulses rotating around this feature will continuously bring big shots of extreme cold to New England over the next week. The last of these impulses and potentially the biggest shot of cold arrives early next week. I think we can be pretty sure that temperatures will nosedive toward the -20 degree range Tuesday or maybe Wednesday morning. The question relates to yet another clipper associated with this last PV impulse and whether or not it can deliver some additional snows to the region Monday. At this point it seems reasonable to expect at least a little.
Beyond the middle part of the week, it still appears as if the jet stream will split across western North America. A significant and potentially fruitful development. We should see a big increase in storminess across the country and there are now indications of that on various models late next week into early February. At the same time, we should see temperatures moderate; in fact, readings could actually creep above average by early February. In the end, there should be enough competing forces in the overall pattern to make this a potentially very good period for Vermont. The split flow across the west and just enough cold air positioned across Canada could be the ticket to some big snows. The first of these may or may not occur between January 30 and Feb 1 with additional chances thereafter.
Sunday, January 19, 2014
Looking hard for the snow in what will be a very chilly week
Winter is back at MRG with snowflakes flying and temperatures dropping. And with arctic cold in firm control of the weather in VT for at least the next 10 days or so, the question revolves around potential snow as in "when" and "how much". We got some from our Sunday/MLK day clipper but the mountain needs significantly more to get us toward 100 percent open.
Light snow on MLK should persist through much of the day amounting to another inch or two but temperatures will plummet through the teens as the next round of arctic cold descends on New England. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with temperatures near -10 in the mornings and only near zero during the afternoons. Another clipper system will divide one shot of polar air from the next. This system has the capability of blowing up on the New England coast and delivering some snow to the region but it will probably be the wrong part of the region. As mentioned in the last update, the polar jet operates at a higher speed and can take systems out into the Atlantic very quickly. That being said, this is still a few days away and if this system can dig a little bit more, it could take a turn northward and bring us a bit of the good stuff. It will remain very cold through Friday with temperatures remaining well below zero at night and struggling to climb above zero during the day.
It should get more interesting this upcoming weekend and chances for snow should continue throughout the last full week of January. The weekend snow will be the result of another clipper and although this limits some upside potential with the storm, we will take the snow anyway we can get it and I expect another few inches here. The polar jet will take a final swing at the region early next week, potentially bringing the coldest weather of the season. This will be the the last hurrah so to speak of this positive PNA cycle and the western North America ridge will lose some of its intensity. As this is happening however, there is evidence of some serious splitting in the flow in the Pacific. This will open the door for some significant weather systems to impact much of the country during this last full week of the month and into early February. I think the first big chance for snow comes some time between the 29th and 31st of the month.
The cold weather should also subside somewhat by early February and although there are some indications that we swing back to a milder regime again, I think the pattern should stay much more interesting. Ensembles, at least two of them anyway, are showing that the once western North American ridge will migrate west and north and will keep the AO on the negative side and this should help prevent any thaws and hopefully keep us on the snowy side of passing low pressure centers.
Light snow on MLK should persist through much of the day amounting to another inch or two but temperatures will plummet through the teens as the next round of arctic cold descends on New England. Tuesday and Wednesday will be mostly dry with temperatures near -10 in the mornings and only near zero during the afternoons. Another clipper system will divide one shot of polar air from the next. This system has the capability of blowing up on the New England coast and delivering some snow to the region but it will probably be the wrong part of the region. As mentioned in the last update, the polar jet operates at a higher speed and can take systems out into the Atlantic very quickly. That being said, this is still a few days away and if this system can dig a little bit more, it could take a turn northward and bring us a bit of the good stuff. It will remain very cold through Friday with temperatures remaining well below zero at night and struggling to climb above zero during the day.
It should get more interesting this upcoming weekend and chances for snow should continue throughout the last full week of January. The weekend snow will be the result of another clipper and although this limits some upside potential with the storm, we will take the snow anyway we can get it and I expect another few inches here. The polar jet will take a final swing at the region early next week, potentially bringing the coldest weather of the season. This will be the the last hurrah so to speak of this positive PNA cycle and the western North America ridge will lose some of its intensity. As this is happening however, there is evidence of some serious splitting in the flow in the Pacific. This will open the door for some significant weather systems to impact much of the country during this last full week of the month and into early February. I think the first big chance for snow comes some time between the 29th and 31st of the month.
The cold weather should also subside somewhat by early February and although there are some indications that we swing back to a milder regime again, I think the pattern should stay much more interesting. Ensembles, at least two of them anyway, are showing that the once western North American ridge will migrate west and north and will keep the AO on the negative side and this should help prevent any thaws and hopefully keep us on the snowy side of passing low pressure centers.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Winter is poised to make a frontal assault on the U.S.
Once every so often, the United States has one of those memorable winters. One of those winters where a weather pattern locks bitterly cold arctic air over much of the country for an extended period of the December to February period. Winters like 1918 (famous for the deadly flu), 1936, any of the winters in the late 70's, 1982 or 1994 are all remembered for long and very extreme outbreak's of bitterly cold air. Vermonters are probably not ready to award this distinction to the 2014 winter as of yet since much of the brunt of the cold and anomalous snow has been focused on the center of the country. But for another upcoming 10 day stretch, the central and eastern parts of the country will again be the focal point for another extended period of extreme cold. This will occur thanks the development of a very powerful blocking ridge in the jet stream extending from the western United States northward to the Yukon. This is one of the more impressive blocking features we have seen in this region going back at least a decade ,and it occurs in a year when the pooling efficiency of air masses in the polar regions has been particularly impressive. By the end of the month, January 2014 and perhaps the entire winter will be remembered as one of the coldest in a generation. Strong language, but well earned given the temperatures we are likely going to have to endure.
The presence of the polar jet over New England and the rest of the country is reeking havoc on the performance of the models. We have gotten some good indications regarding the general pattern evolution but the details have proven almost impossible to pin down. Storms will show up on a model run for the weekend and then disappear a day later. Another model might snow a big snow event for early next week and that storm will later vanish on a subsequent model run. To put it as plainly as possible, the polar jet operates in a different gear. Impulses rotate through the jet so quickly and the models have a hard time digesting what impact, if any, they will have on actual weather. In other words, we have and will continue to be teased now and again and a storm might sneak up on us very late in a forecast period.
For now, it seems like there is some consensus on the weekend. Temperatures will stay in a very tolerable range, climbing to near 30 both Saturday and Sunday and only falling into the teens. Enjoy it because beyond that lies an abyss of brutally cold weather for New England. We will also get some snow this weekend. Two clipper systems are responsible for this. The first was the one we had hoped would ultimately bomb-out along the coast delivering lots of snow; instead, we should see a period of light snow Saturday evening into the overnight amounting hopefully to a few inches. On Sunday a clipper will rapidly advance southeast out of Ontario on the wings of the arriving polar jet. This system will deliver another few inches of snow Sunday night. Flurries will continue into Monday but the story for the rest of the week will be cold, brutal cold. Temperatures for much of the week will be below zero on the mountain including readings lower than 10 below in the morning and day time temperatures that struggle to get above zero. We have been teased and may continue to be teased with a potential storm around the time of Friday/Saturday the 24th/25th. I think this system has the potential to be more than just a tease but time will tell.
The ultra positive PNA will continue to support the bitterly cold temperatures until at least the 28th of January and then it gets interesting. The strength of the ridge in the Yukon will relax and there are signs of some serious splitting in the jet stream in the Pacific. This is the kind of situation that can lead to big time snow events for both New England and many other places.
The presence of the polar jet over New England and the rest of the country is reeking havoc on the performance of the models. We have gotten some good indications regarding the general pattern evolution but the details have proven almost impossible to pin down. Storms will show up on a model run for the weekend and then disappear a day later. Another model might snow a big snow event for early next week and that storm will later vanish on a subsequent model run. To put it as plainly as possible, the polar jet operates in a different gear. Impulses rotate through the jet so quickly and the models have a hard time digesting what impact, if any, they will have on actual weather. In other words, we have and will continue to be teased now and again and a storm might sneak up on us very late in a forecast period.
For now, it seems like there is some consensus on the weekend. Temperatures will stay in a very tolerable range, climbing to near 30 both Saturday and Sunday and only falling into the teens. Enjoy it because beyond that lies an abyss of brutally cold weather for New England. We will also get some snow this weekend. Two clipper systems are responsible for this. The first was the one we had hoped would ultimately bomb-out along the coast delivering lots of snow; instead, we should see a period of light snow Saturday evening into the overnight amounting hopefully to a few inches. On Sunday a clipper will rapidly advance southeast out of Ontario on the wings of the arriving polar jet. This system will deliver another few inches of snow Sunday night. Flurries will continue into Monday but the story for the rest of the week will be cold, brutal cold. Temperatures for much of the week will be below zero on the mountain including readings lower than 10 below in the morning and day time temperatures that struggle to get above zero. We have been teased and may continue to be teased with a potential storm around the time of Friday/Saturday the 24th/25th. I think this system has the potential to be more than just a tease but time will tell.
The ultra positive PNA will continue to support the bitterly cold temperatures until at least the 28th of January and then it gets interesting. The strength of the ridge in the Yukon will relax and there are signs of some serious splitting in the jet stream in the Pacific. This is the kind of situation that can lead to big time snow events for both New England and many other places.
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