The 2022-23 snow season recap and the fight to achieve respectability

The 2022-2023 ski season has concluded at Mad River Glen and having lasted some distance into April and 114 total days, I can officially declare it a decent year. There was a time not too long ago when it didn't feel that way and after several mid-winter gut punches, we seemed primed to get KO'd, but we clawed our way back, slowly at first, but finally earned ourselves respectable snow season following yet another Ides of March storm. The whole "think snow" mantra might seem tired after so many seasons, but I thought we put in a really good effort in that regard this year and the nearly 200 inches of seasonal snowfall felt pretty darn good.

Meanwhile, didn't seem to take much thinking to receive snow out west. It was an incredible season over most areas west of the Continental Divide, particularly in the states of California, Nevada and Utah. The weather pattern, largely powered by another big negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index was amazingly persistent, supporting both cold weather and storminess throughout the year. The storms were notable for both their frequency and strength and a slow methodical melt off would alleviate what has been a stressed water situation in the Golden State that only seems to get worse over time. Extra water will also provide California some short term and much needed cheap energy since the state depends on hydroelectric generation, but can't claim this in abundance if water isn't flowing . This was very much another winter season that illustrated the underlying power of the PDO in terms of how it can drive a weather pattern. The 2014-2015 snow season, when portions of southern New England were buried in record snowfall while California was hit with a major drought featured much discussion about the role of AGW in contributing to the growing and persistent drought concerns out west. That year featured a record positive PDO and the weather pattern seemed just as persistent as the one featured throughout the 2022-23 season but in reverse with cold weather and snowfall favored over eastern North America. This recent winter, which featured a 5-month cold season aggregated PDO value of -1.29 actually fell short of the prior season's negative number but still stands in stark contrast to the 2014-15 number of +1.77.Got some PDO values from the last 10 seasons below and a link to some additional info on it here.

 

The PDO is not the only game in town and one can go back through history and easily find seasons where the weather pattern is not hogtied to PDO values. The recent winter season also featured a moderate La Nina with colder than average temperatures enveloping large swaths of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. La Nina conditions are correlated to PDO conditions though not perfectly and the combination of the two may have been the right ingredient to produce a weather pattern capable of producing so much snow and relative cold, west of the Continental Divide. Below are some selected snowfall totals for ski resorts in the areas discussed and some others. 

 

Alta wins  the title for most snow, but almost any location in California saw snowfall amounts approaching 200 percent of normal. Across the east, the few stations I selected in that table illustrate how sensitive this snow season was to latitude. Jay Peak recorded essentially a normal snow season while Stowe, Mad River Glen and Sugarbush recorded respectable amounts yet still what is considered below average by the Onthesnow.com standards. This gives me the opportunity to do a quick opine on ski resort snowfall data which is recorded in a highly unscientific manner leading to amounts that are skiflationary compared to reality. There are several ways this is accomplished but the most sure-fire way to achieve a skiflationary snowfall total is to measure in several locations, record the range and then continue to sum the seasonal total using the high end of that range. I've numbed myself into partaking into this absurdity, justifying the practice with the idea that it will actually get us to apples to apples comparisons though it actually doesn't when ski area opts for honest reporting. This past season, if anyone notices or cares, I actually was partaking in this unscientific procedure and recorded a higher total at Mad River Glen than the mountain actually recorded. My total was actually closer to Sugarbush's seasonal amount of 195". It's not especially important to me but I do think mountain ops at MRG missed 10-15 inches in November and then somehow managed to short itself another 10 inches in the March storm by adding 35" to 135" and getting 160" instead of 170".  All good however and I certainly respect the fact that MRG reports ranges as opposed to partaking in skiflation and hopefully this digression helps folks understand how all the numbers, my own summations, Sugarbush's and MRG's could be all so different.

The same weather pattern that resulted in all the snow across California, Nevada and Utah was also responsible for the persistent warmth across the east, especially southeast US. The mild weather may have appeared blunted in northern New England but every month was above average relative to even new, warmed 30-year averages (The 1991-2020 average are materially warmer than 1981-2010 and I'll let the reader speculate as to the reason) and January was the warmest ever recorded across most of New England. Arctic air certainly had a North American presence in every month except January (more on that later), but was either focused on western part of the continent or at higher latitudes in Canada. Populated areas of the northeast saw two big but very short-lived outbreaks of cold, one occurring in the days prior to Christmas while the other slammed the region in early February. Vermont was ground zero for the second and much of the state saw the coldest wind chill temperatures in several years. In the southeast U.S. winter essentially ended after the Christmas outbreak of cold. Atlanta, GA saw temperatures plummet to 9 degrees on Christmas Eve and never saw sub-20 degree readings again and only a handful of mornings were even below freezing. Needless to say, this weather pattern took a tremendous toll on the ski season in the Mid-Atlantic where it was a struggle to keep snow on the ground and terrain open.  

To reiterate, the weather pattern manage to induce above normal temperatures every month of this past cold season though there were variations on this theme. The November warmth was powered by the first 11 days which featured 4 days of 70-degree temperatures across valley locations. Colder air arrived on November 13 and much of the rest of the month featured early season arctic air and several inches of wet snow fell on November 16th. As the month progressed it seemed apparent that the weather would get interesting in December with indications of a large high latitude blocking structure emerging over Greenland powering a big expected drop in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Some of this indeed happened, but much of the blocking ultimately set up farther west over the Davis Strait early in December and then transitioned to the Arctic regions near the top of the Yukon Territory later in the month. The shift in this blocking set up basically meant that much of the winter weather fireworks which could have occurred along the east coast, happened farther inland or west. This includes Buffalo, NY which saw one massive outbreak of heavy lake effect snow during the cold weather in mid-November and would later see a historic wind-driven lake effect snow storm with the cold outbreak before Christmas. 

Vermont saw a rainy start to its December with much of the cold focused further west. It appeared for a time like the mild weather would persist through the 2nd week of December but the blocking won out and not only did we get a colder week, but got some big snow to go along with it with most of the snow falling on Friday December 16th, setting us up for a proper weekend opening. The storm looked ominous, initially taking aim at the eastern Great Lakes and threatening to track toward the St Lawrence Valley, but the jet stream structure helped ensure that the storm would reform on the eastern seaboard in a much more advantageous position; in fact, it turned out nearly perfect and produced nearly 2 feet of snow, one of the best events of the season for Mad River Glen. Several days of sub-freezing temperatures in the wake of that storm brought some of the best December skiing since 2018. It certainly looked like we could keep it going for the duration of the month as a massive surge of cold weather, the strongest of the season in many parts of the eastern United States, enveloped a broad swatch of the continent on and just before Christmas. The cold wasn't especially severe in a relative sense across northern New England but temperatures remained below freezing through early December 29th and it was then that the weather pattern broke and the New Years holiday came in with some very mild air.

The scouring of the cold in the days after Christmas was dramatic and remarkable considering the geographical scale. By New Years 2023, most of the North American continent was mild relative to climatological averages and there was a glaring absence of arctic air. The weather pattern was making plenty of news but for the wrong reason. Anytime we hear about an "atmospheric river" when describing the storminess across California, it can't be good for winter weather fans in the eastern United States and it certainly wasn't. The support for cold weather in mid-latitude North America collapsed by early January using any number of teleconnection indicators, but the EPO in particular, which is a measure of the strength of the jet stream in the Pacific Ocean proved particularly problematic. Powerful storms, one after the other, unleashed fury on the west coast dumping over 200% of normal rainfall on the Bay Area. A colder version of this weather pattern would reemerge later in the season but the January setup actually featured relative high snow levels in the Sierra Nevada Mountains and I certainly remember one Tahoe based ski area shutting a lift down for flooding with that image going viral on social media.    

 

 

The first 18 days of January was probably the worst period of the season around Mad River Glen. The December snowpack slowly eroded and it was an ugly scene with bare ground very visible over our valley locations. We saw some rain, ice a bit of wet snow here and there and many days with temperatures above the freezing mark though it never did reach 50 degrees. The mild weather, particularly during the overnight hours helped power the month to one of the warmest January's ever recorded but as it turned out, it wasn't the worst January I've ever seen for skiing. As we moved into the middle of the month there were promising signs with neutralizing teleconnection indicators though arctic air remained very bottled up in Siberia where there as news that temperatures were the coldest in 50 some odd years. There was no such cold in Vermont, but the setup for storms was very good and we scored a trifecta on new snowfall over the span of just a week. Steady snow on the January 19th and into the 20th to the tune of over a foot and another 8-14 inches followed late on Sunday January 22nd into Monday the 23rd. The best storm in this period appeared to be lined up for Thursday January 26th and the snow indeed came, but like so many La Nina powered winter weather events, so did the layers of warm air. Following several inches of snow, we saw mixed precipitation and even a brief period of rain right before first chair. The upper mountain survived the onslaught of warmth in one piece, but a lasting memory from that event will be driving across the valley and seeing temperatures start at 26 and then soar to 39 by the time I hit the MRG base. Heard my name mentioned in a less than flattering light (though not too bad) in the lodge that morning but there wasn't too many complaints as the day progressed with that rain changing back to snow and then heavy snow as the Champlain Oragraphic Enhancer came to life and deposited another 10 inches on the mountain. By Friday, January 27th, the skiing and the general mood was terrific and additional snowfall during the weekend and in the early part of the next week certainly didn't hurt. 

 

 

As the snow piled up across northern Vermont late in January the arctic air began to rebuild across Canada and as it turned out, our neighbors to the north saw a much colder month of February than January. Arctic air also plunged into the snow covered areas of the west, but in the best traditions of La Nina, struggled to maintain any grip on the Mid Atlantic and Deep South. Over New England, it was a colder month but it was powered by one massive outbreak of cold weather on February 3rd-4th with temperatures plunging to 20 below or colder and wind chills exceeding -50. Mt Washington made headlines during that arctic invasion by recording the lowest wind chill ever measured by an instrument in the United States. I phrase it this way because assuredly there have been colder wind chills that haven't been recorded by an instrument. Unfortunately, the cold on February 4th retreated into Canada and mild weather consumed interior New England during the middle part of the month. We were fortunate not to receive a heavy rain event but the snow eroded nonetheless leaving much of ski country in need of more natural snow to save the season. 

 

And then suddenly, the tide turned in our favor. Arctic air managed to push southward into interior New England on February 22nd setting up a nice garden variety overrunning event for February 23rd when cold powdery snow fall over the mountains. Snow showers on the last weekend of February turned into an added bonus and the March outlook continued to improve with blocking showing up at high latitudes after a nearly 2 month absence. As it turned out, the weather pattern partially gravitated toward a more "persistence-based" outcome which in this case means that the configuration of temperature anomalies in North America in March bore a close resemblance to what happened in prior months. It did stay colder however and when the storms came, northern Vermont received snow. We started March with a couple of lighter snowfall events but it seemed almost inevitable that all of the weather drama would revolve around the Ides of March or March 13-15 dates like they always seem to. One again,the calendar worked its magic! There were indications of a storm well in advance that included several different advertised model simulated scenarios. The weekend prior to the storm, models shifted much of the action southward with a slow moving and exploding coastal low remaining south of Cape Cod. Higher resolution model data seemed to confirm this trend and there were stunning indications that much of northern Vermont might struggle to receive any snowfall from this storm. It was all part of a plan though, like a Game of Thrones season, but one with a happy ending. The stage was set for a northward shift and gradually one began to happen. All kidding aside however, it was a terrific illustration of why it is important to consider everything when putting together a forecast and many times the best information is the one coming at you with the most consistent output. Southern Vermont did ultimately get the bullseye initially advertised but northern Vermont performed exceptionally well from this bombing storm that indeed consolidated its energy north of Cape Cod. It was the appropriate finale to this multi-week stretch of favorable weather because the storm managed to, in some ways, resemble some of the other storms over the course of this season only this one bombed harder and produced more snow over a longer stretch of time, 35 inches to be exact. Remarkably, and much like many of the other events this winter, temperatures were just cold enough to support a drier snow. Across valley locations the snow was wetter and not as much of it fell. 

The weather pattern remained stormy and certainly capable of producing more events in the last 2 weeks of March and even into early April but the mountains received only mixed results. Early in April there were hints of wintry weather potential both in the first and 2nd week, but this also didn't materialize. By April 9th and 10th, much of the unsettled weather became detached from the jet stream over the Gulf Coast allowing a round of extraordinarily mild weather to impact Vermont in April. By the time the month is over, 2023 version of April is likely to be the warmest, maybe this young century. 

This theme of mild weather and specifically the persistence of it was the most remarkable part of the recent weather season. Every month, even March and December, which had some cold weather advertised, featured temperatures that averaged above the recently warmed 30-year averages across interior New England. In contrast, areas west of the Continental Divide saw persistent cold weather and high snowfall every month. I am certainly not the biggest cheerleader for - PDO winters since they are notorious in their ability to produce multi week stretches of warm and wet weather. It is unusual however for such a pattern to be so persistent, but this particular pairing of what was a moderate La Nina and a very negative PDO seemed to be the magic formula. The mild weather produced a historically awful result for snow-lovers along the I95 corridor from Boston southward. Interestingly however, the weather pattern, though persistent, wasn't amplified enough to obliterate the ski season across northern Vermont; in fact, the weather pattern did have some redeeming qualities for the interior. Given enough cold, the storm track generally cooperated and the mountains got its share. The Mt Mansfield snow stake, which acts as the reserve currency for grading the snow season in northern Vermont, lagged on its snow depth relative to normal for much the season before finally blowing through normal on March 14 and remaining there through the end of the month. It was a satisfying way to finish a season with some ups and downs. 

Meanwhile, conditions in the equatorial Pacific have shifted with the La Nina status now eliminated and temperatures in that portion of the ocean now running just a little bit above average. At the same time, we have yet to see the PDO relax. An emerging El Nino has been the consensus forecast for ENSO in the coming months but these forecasts are not always correct. It would also be conventional wisdom to expect the PDO to relax if an El Nino emerges as advertised, but this too can defy expectations. I am certainly ok with a mild to moderate El Nino, but most imporantly I want the negative PDO to neutralize. Sure, we managed to survive this recent winter in ok shape but mild onslaughts are not good for my mental health in winter.  I continue to see legitimate articles suggesting El Nino conditions will be more prevalent as climate change progresses and though it strikes me as a viable opinion I am yet to be convinced that a warming earth would favor relative warmth in one part of the Pacific Ocean as opposed to another. Unfortunately, we are likely to find out the answer whether we like it or not. 

And that puts a wrap on the 2022-2023 season. We had a decent start, had to endure a few big mid-season body blows before managing to fight our way to a respectable snow season .Cold air was a bit sparse on this side of the continent though we made the most of it, and the most of our 44 N latitude and distance from the snowless coast. Amazingly, next year will mark the 20th season of weather blogging at MRG and we get to celebrate its conclusion with a complete solar eclipse on April 8th. Though I don't have any cloud cover prognostications yet, rest assured that I will make every attempt at providing totally inconclusive and inaccurate predictions way too early. Enjoy the summer everyone ! 

 

 

Warmest outbreak of April weather in years to hit northern Vermont after seasonable but bluebird weekend

It's not often in a winter or spring season in Vermont that one gets to advertise extraordinarily quiet weather, but here we are.  Actually the weather appears remarkable because it appears both quiet and sensationally warm for the early part of April and if you like bluebird conditions, we have a few different varieties for you to choose from over the next week. The weekend features the more chilly version with teens Saturday morning warming to low 40's during the afternoon while Sunday is near 20 in the morning warming up toward 50 in the afternoon. Get through those chilly morning hours and it should feel terrific with minimal amounts of wind both days. 

Following the weekend, things should really begin to heat up with the weather pattern configuring itself almost perfectly for unusual April warmth. The key ingredient is a large area of unsettled weather that will become stuck along the Gulf Coast inducing heavy rain. North of that area covering an expansive area of the Great Lakes and New England features outstanding weather with plenty of sunshine almost every day of the week. How warm can it get ? Monday will be up near 60 degrees, Tuesday will be well north of 60 and Wednesday, Thursday and Friday will all be in the 70's. It appears to be the warmest stretch of April temperatures in northern Vermont in several years and it will certainly mean some soft and terrific spring snow while it lasts and plenty of snow melt, especially in sun exposed areas. Mild  and persistent westerly winds will also east at the snow even in shaded regions as the week progresses.

Models are indicating some "cooler temperatures" for the weekend of April 15-16 though it should remain mostly well above freezing and it still appears above a more seasonable 45-50 degrees. Ensembles do indicate closer to average temperatures beyond April 17th and possibly some precipitation after what could be a 10-plus day stretch of dry weather starting at the time of this update. 

Tumultuous first week of April appears likely to give way to a full dose of fantastic Vermont spring weather next week

Though it firmed up for a while following the Saturday afternoon torching, this is the update where a full scale break from the winter season can be predicted. As recently as this past weekend, there were indications of a substantial intrusion of a spring arctic chill (not uncommon) for the week beginning Monday April 10th, but the threat of this has dramatically vanished. If we can keep the unsettled wet weather to our south and east next week, Vermont could be looking at a extended stretch of normal to much above normal temperatures - a spring break with a side of corn. 

The near term outlook is a bit more tumultuous and the weather map as of April 4th resembles a warmer version of what we dealt with through much of this winter. More very warm temperatures encompass much of the southeast U.S. while colder weather and cloudiness try and hang on across interior New England. As warmer temperatures try and push north Wednesday, the colder air across Vermont will find firmer footing, strengthened by the marine environment in the coastal Atlantic Ocean. Wednesday and at least half of Thursday will thus be socked in with cloudiness and poor visibility with temperatures on the mountain holding in the 30's or low 40's. There's  precipitation as well, falling perhaps as some freezing rain in some elevated areas and plain rain in some others. Though the heaviest of this precipitation is expected to fall Wednesday evening, we could see some sporadic light precipitation accompanying the fog during the day. Temperatures are expected to warm slightly Wednesday night allowing an freezing rain to become rain. On Thursday, the rain will again be very sporadic and clouds are eventually expected to break for both warmer weather and some limited sunshine during the afternoon with readings warming into the 50's. Visibility should be better on Friday with clouds, a few intervals of sunshine with a rain or wet snow shower possible. The precipitation is associated with a decent push of April chill and conditions will dry out once this airmass fully envelops the state Friday night. Both Saturday and Sunday mornings will be well below freezing with temperatures in the 20's but both days also appear to be total bluebirds with diminishing winds Saturday and hardly any wind on Easter Sunday. Temperatures should reach the 40's both weekend days, but it will take some time to soften the snow with low dewpoints expected. 

As mentioned up top, there are increasing indications that the unsettled weather gets confined to the southeast U.S. next week allowing both warmer temperatures and sunshine to flow freely into the region right over the top. I can't make any guarantees since the forecast period remains a week away, but this is a nice recipe for an extended stretch of excellent spring time conditions in New England with warm daytime highs of better than 60 degrees on successive days (maybe even warmer?). Ensembles are now suggesting that this could be the start of a more extended period of warmer than average temperatures, especially farther west over the Great Lakes region. With this turn in the weather, I plan to do one more regular update followed by a post-season summary. I should be able to conquer the latter this year after failing to do so last year.

Spring roller coaster of weather conditions begins

 Bluebird and cold late March weather conditions will continue through early Friday at Mad River Glen and then a very typical spring roller coaster of weather conditions commences and should continue through the first week of April. There are signs of another wintry period and possibly some snowfall during the 2nd full week of the month but it should be pointed out that the climatology wall is getting taller and taller making the odds of attaining deep, powdery snowfall steeper. 

The early sunshine on Friday is expected to give way to clouds and some precipitation, almost all of which should occur after the ski day. I did a double take and was somewhat surprised to see that a brief period of accumulating snowfall is indicated Friday afternoon, but this is a very strong push of mild air and that precipitation should change to rain around or just before it gets dark Friday evening. Now I've been watching Saturday closely because temperatures and dewpoints are supportive for some serious snow softening, but it would sure help to clear out the rain and it looks like we will after 11 AM or thereabouts. Temperatures will start Saturday in the low 40's with terrible visibility, but temperatures will warm into the 50's, the visibility will improve and the cloud ceiling should lift as the day progresses into the afternoon.  I expect we get  several hours of dry weather later in the day but also expect some gusty winds up over 30 mph. Chilly weather returns for Saturday night along with a bit of wet weather which will then become wet snowfall.  All of this weather will clear out very early on Sunday though temperatures on the mountain will likely be stuck just below the freezing mark. 

It appears Monday, April 3rd is a milder version of Friday with cold weather and sunshine to start, milder near 50-degree temperatures and clouds to finish with the possibility of some rain later in the day. Much of the middle of the week looks cloudy, above freezing and we can expect an interval or two of rain not to be confused with continuous rain. I should emphasize the point that this appears to be the longest stretch of thawing temperatures so far in this early part of the spring season. Colder weather can be expected for the end of the week along with a return of some sunshine. I've seen some models advertise some wet snow for the 2nd full weekend of April but I think there is more wintry weather potential in the period between April 10th and 13th. Looks like we get a decent PNA surge in this time frame setting the stage for a colder weather surge in eastern North America. Those holding out hope for a late season snow event should keep an eye on this period more than any other.

More winter weather for the rest of this week and then a little spring for Saturday

As expected, winter weather conditions will continue this week, at least at skiing elevations in the MRV. We won't be able to manufacture any big snow but there are two chances for small accumulations and temperatures between Tuesday and Friday morning are generally expected to stay below freezing across the higher elevations though low lying areas can expect afternoon temps in the high 30's and low 40's most of this week. Our first new snow comes Monday night from a storm making a last ditch effort to ignite south of Long Island. Southern Vermont can expect a decent elevation event from this with 4-6 inches above 2000 feet while valley areas see some rain change to a bit of wet snow. The MRV is on the northern edge of this area of precipitation and we can generally expect a lesser version of southern Vermont's weather. This means 1-3 inches for Sugarbush and Mad River Glen with about an inch expected in valley areas. There are two reinforcements of colder air this week with the first arriving behind Monday nights snow. Clouds on Tuesday should break for a little sunshine with temperatures rising into the 30's, but again, probably staying sub-freezing at higher elevations. Sunshine and a southwesterly flow of air should boost readings in valley areas to the 40's following a near 20 degree start. Clouds then arrive Wednesday evening and a period of snow during the overnight hours is likely to bring a few inches of snow for the Thursday ski day. This is a potent little surge of late March cold so the 1-4 inches of snow that is expected should be more of the powdery variety and will be accompanied by mostly 20-degree temperatures throughout the day. There is a slight chance that this could wind up being the last powdery turns of the season, but April always seems to feature unexpected volatility and I can remember hiking in powder at the summits in both late April and May so this would be an unwise prediction even though the outlook has trended to the warmer side. 

There's been a lot of talk of changes with ENSO moving forward and a possible El Nino in the months ahead. This does not apply to the weather pattern next week which looks like the epitome of a La Nina set up with cold gripping portions of western North America and covering a large portion of southern Canada as mild air makes a northward push along the east coast. The surge of warmth for Satuday, April Fools Day appears very potent, capable of making a strong interior New England dent. There's a strong storm system associated with this push and it's likely to produce severe weather late Friday and Friday night across the Ohio Valley only a few days removed from the 49th anniversary of the 1974 super-outbreak of tornadoes that occurred in the same area. The storm is ultimately expected to track near or just south of the St Lawrence Valley and bring some wet weather at all of our elevations on Saturday. Still, some uncertainty remains regarding the nature of the weather for Saturday as clouds could break for some sunshine allowing strong southwesterly winds to boost readings up toward 60. I am not sure that happens but it's almost a certainty that the higher dewpoints on Saturday will bring the corn out if you can dodge the rain drops (We should see a drier period in spite of the showery forecast). Colder weather returns for Saturday night and so will some wet snow showers but sunshine should return for the ski day on Sunday with readings remaining in the 30's on the mountain. As for next week, the battle between some very spring-like weather across the Mid-Atlantic and wintry conditions in southern Canada will resume. Models have placed us on either side of this battle, but for the most part, I think we are on the colder side of this divide with a mid-week storm system bringing us a plethora of precipitation types.

Snow/some sleet late on Saturday and snow showers for Sunday but storm next week looks less likely

Having not had the opportunity to know her, I don't consider myself a very qualified person to give a Betsy Pratt tribute, but I've always enjoyed hearing about her from those who do know and I also love a good history lesson, especially about places I care about. This film "Spirit of a Classsic", made by Rick Moulton in 1988 is just amazing. I can't believe some of the footage and interviews in this feature which include folks who actually cut trails, built the original towers and made Mad River Glen of the most distinctive ski destinations around. And of course, there's some terrific stuff from Betsy Pratt herself. 

Spirit of a Classic 1988 

 

We still have some winter weather in the outlook and a lot of snow on the ground, but with that said, I am not in love with the storm this weekend as far as big snow goes. More on that in a minute. In the mean time we have cooler temperatures and a pretty solid freeze coming for Friday morning. Temperatures will warm Friday thanks to some sunshine, but only to around 40 and lower than that above 2500 feet. Saturday morning is expected to be even colder, maybe some teens before some early sunshine again pushes readings up just past the freezing mark by late morning. Most of Saturday except for a few hours in the morning will feature cloudiness and some snowfall is expected to arrive just as the ski day is winding down. This is a storm that will be initially tracking toward the eastern Great Lakes before making a last second transition to the New England coastline. This setup, especially being late in the winter season, is pushing marginal temps into northern Vermont both at the surface and aloft. At skiing elevations I think this initial burst of moisture falls as some snow with a bit of sleet mixed in. Later in the evening and into the over night we should see a mix of lighter sleet and snow change to all snow before ending as snow showers later in the day Sunday. A 2-5 inch, dense, snow/sleet conglomeration is my initial guess on accumulation. The snow showers on Sunday could yield a small additional accumulation but this activity looks better from Stowe northward based on wind trajectories. 

 

Much of next week has moved in a colder direction as of this update but the big question relates to a potential storm in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. It's a promising setup but a closer examination of the last two rounds of ensemble data are showing this jet amplification to max out farther south and east taking much of the storminess out over the ocean. The Canadian model was still showing a big storm over interior New England as of Thursday afternoon but its own ensembles did not validate this scenario so I am fearful the trend toward a nothing-burger could get legitimized over the next few days. The way this month has gone though, never say never ! The late season chill looks more legit in spite of the drier outlook. Much the Tuesday to Thursday time frame looks sub-freezing, at least on the mountain and we could certainly squeeze lighter accumulations of snowfall into this outlook even if a bigger storm doesn't materialize. 

The ensembles also moved toward a colder, stormy and tumultuous start to April with a likelihood of more winter weather. Good excuse to reiterate what I think will be an accurate prediction from Midstation Single guru Brian Aust of a "proper April closing date" !

 

 

Stormy weather pattern will continue to throw a lot of weather at us including at least one elevation sensitive snowfall event this weekend

We waited until March 19th to record what likely will be our coldest day of the month allowing the deep snow to solidify a bit. The snow will indeed soften again this week with the big corn horn day likely to be Thursday. Comfortable 40-degree afternoons are also expected Tuesday and Wednesday with Tuesday being the sunnier of the two days, but I want to caution folks who are expecting those weather conditions to produce deep corn. I can't forecast with any certainty how snow consistency might hold up from one day to the next, but I can put out a short spiel about the importance of dewpoints and how snow on dry above-freezing days such as Tuesday and Wednesday can remain pretty firm. As dewpoints climb above freezing, like they will on Thursday, snow will be able to soften more efficiently. We are also expecting a bit of rain to go along with near 50-degree temperatures Thursday. The rain however is expected to be rather sporadic and I expect a large percentage of the ski day to remain precipitation-free. The wet weather is then expected to get pushed south of Vermont on Friday and clouds might break for a bit of sunshine. Dewpoints are expected to drop again though temperatures should remain largely above freezing throughout the day. 

Though we've been in the midst of a break, the weather pattern can still be described as a stormy one, especially the period beginning this weekend (March 25-26th) and extending through the end of the month and into early April. The pattern, supported mostly by the -EPO or weakness in the strength of the Pacific jet stream does not favor extreme winter-like cold given the absence of a ridge in western North America. It would thus be a terrific regime in January, but in March it aligns more with lots of spring storminess and elevation sensitive snow events. The upcoming weekend looks almost entirely cloudy and it appears as if mixed precipitation or snow will arrive at Mad River Glen sometime around midday Saturday. Valley locations could see a period of rain. Over the last few days, models have been moving in the right direction or at least toward a wet, elevation sensitive snowfall extending through Sunday. Snowfall accumulations could be significant  (6 or more inches) though I will wait until lingering uncertainties are ironed out before zeroing in on a range. 

Though its been a few days since the  last update, their continues to be indications of an even stronger storm around March 28th. Like its predecessor, this storm will have minimal cold air to work with but the prevailing weather pattern supports a favorable track and if the storm were allowed to  deepen enough, we might not need a lot of cold air to support more significant snow. Still a long way to the finish line on this and a possible next storm around the time of April Fools. At the very least, the deep snow established by yet another Ides of March storm will melt slowly thanks to clouds and a weather pattern that doesn't support persistent thawing, at least not yet.