Got a rather quiet period of winter weather coming through the weekend in northern Vermont and this is certainly a change from the very active period of weather we saw in the second half of January and into early February. An area of low pressure is expected to strengthen off shore into a modest storm but is still expected to pass 50-75 miles east of Cape Cod leaving us mostly out of reach for heavy snowfall. We can still expect a period of light snow very early Tuesday thanks to an associated inverted trough feature and some of this precipitation may fall as light rain or freezing rain if you are west of the Green Mountain spine. Temperatures in the mountains appear cold enough to support a very light snowfall with a dusting to as much as 2 inches likely. If the storm tracks over the Cape somehow, we could see more but models aren't typically that wrong within 36 hours of the event.
Pacific air remains poised to envelop most of New England for a period of almost 5 days beginning Tuesday and ending this upcoming Saturday. Though temperatures are expected to remain sub-freezing on the mountain, we could see readings approach the 40-degree mark on Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday afternoon's. Even if readings do creep above the freezing mark at higher elevations, the low dewpoints should keep the snow consistency on the powdery side through the week. The two clipper systems still appear on the weather map with the first passing late Thursday and the second this Saturday. Consistent with the tradition of 2021-22, both systems don't appear especially snowy in northern Vermont. We are again in the wrong jet quadrant for both and will be limited to a few light snow showers or flurries Thursday and a better chance for snow showers and maybe a snow squall late Saturday. In the case of both features, substantial accumulations should not be expected.
Colder arctic air is expected to make a return late Saturday and into Sunday and the chill is expected to linger through the early part of the week beginning Valentine's Day. Occasionally models have shown a big winter storm developing near the baroclinic zone near Tidewater region of Virginia but this has not gotten a ton of support as was mentioned late in the update late on Saturday. I can say this however as a way of expanding on the discussion about clipper impotence. Storm activity along the coast have been generally under-predicted by models this winter and there have been several instances where significant impacts go largely unnoticed in our favorite simulations until we are within a few days. In summary, it's been a "sell the clipper, buy the coastal storm" type of winter. With this in mind, it would not be wise to rule out a Valentine's Day coastal storm.
Beyond Tuesday, we lose the support of every teleconnection index we track. The Pacific continues to look mildly irritated, the AO/NAO are both positive and we lose the support of our last line of defense - the PNA or western North American ridge. As one might expect, the door will be open for a push of milder temperatures toward the middle or end of next week and we may very well get one capable of bringing a thaw to Vermont. All that said, none of these teleconnection indices turn deeply unfavorable and will instead remain only mildly unfavorable. Given that data, I think ensembles have responded appropriately by suggesting another milder period of temperatures late next week but are not yet convinced those temperatures are that excessive. A few runs of the Euro Op have produced excessive temps late next week but this hasn't found support in the model's accompanying ensemble members. I might point out that the Euro Op was also producing an occasional torch late last week and we ended up with over 20 inches of snow and it wasn't alone. Ensembles hedged on the setup for late last week and are hedging again late next week and it has now been noted in the blog.
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