Arctic air has made a northward retreat over the North American continent allowing Pacific air to rule our roost and ensure that temperatures for the duration of the month will turn out substantially milder than they were in January. We will get the occasional blast of arctic chill but its doubtful we will see a sustainable period of below normal temperatures until at least early March. Specifically as it relates to skiing the hard earned deep snow in northern Vermont there are a different set of questions we need to concern ourselves with. Can we still get a big storm in this milder weather pattern ? Are we going to get a sustained snow-eating torch ? And worse, will it rain ?
It is unlikely we see any substantial snow over the course of the next week but temperatures up on the mountain continue to appear sub-freezing through Wednesday, February 16 in spite of some milder afternoons in the low lying valleys. We still have the two clippers lined up over the next 4 days and there appears to be a bit more moisture with the first (at least verses earlier expectations). It also appears to be one of those situations where we could see some mixed precipitation in valley locations while a period of accumulating snow falls across the high country, beginning in the pre-dawn hours Thursday and persisting through about early afternoon. I don't like forecasting hefty amounts with this type of prevailing flow (southwesterly winds) but 2-4 inches is not to aggressive so lets go with it. The snow may be a little wet near the base but I would expect a more powdery consistency up above 2000 feet. Friday is a dry day with clouds and a few intervals of sunshine. Temperatures should start in the teens but rise toward the freezing mark by the middle of the afternoon. The 2nd clipper on Saturday appears to be a similar setup to Thursday with slightly less moisture. Again, we aren't in a great quadrant but there is some limited moisture so a period of light snowfall is likely a small accumulation possible. This 2nd clipper also marks one of those occasional arctic intrusions discussed above. Winds will shift during the afternoon allowing us to tap into a limited supply of moisture from Lake Champlain. Instability is lacking however and I would not expect a big accumulation late in the day Saturday.
We appear to be locked into a cold period between Sunday Feb 13th and the 15th and we continue to watch for the possibility of the formation of a storm along the coast Sunday night into Valentine's Day Monday. The notion of the storm looks better as of Thursday but the pattern appears too progressive to allow anything that forms near the Virginia Tidewater to make a needed northward turn. Some snow is possible well to our south Sunday night, but the chances of a serious interior New England impact continue to look low. Every coastal is worth watching this winter however because you can just never completely count them out.
I am more concerned about a possible albeit temporary thaw late next week around the time frame of Thursday, February 17th. There's been a stronger signal in the model data for what appears to be a 24-36 hour stretch of very mild temperatures, wind and some rainfall. If taken at face value, the results would not be good for any part of New England, even northern Maine. With that said, the type of event being portrayed by the aggregation of model data is not something that is very typical in northern New England in February, it is more likely in December or early January. Additionally, ensembles continue to indicate the existence of a decent area of cold in central and northern Quebec so I could certainly see models shifting again to a more mitigated thaw. Obviously we would love another shift to a February 4 scenario but that's a tough ask though for you die hards out there, it can't hurt to try.
Beyond the later part of next week appears to feature another temporary round of arctic air for the weekend of the 19th/20th persisting into President's Day week followed again by a milder push of temperatures by February 23rd or so. The teleconnection indicators have conspired against us for the later part of February. None appear strong enough to drive arctic air entirely off the continent, but certainly enough to make a challenge to maintain winter in Vermont.
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