Mother Nature's "make up call" falling into line with models converging on 10-20 by Friday morning in the MRV

 We've had some bad misses this year and have underperformed on snowfall this past January in spite of some very cold temperatures, but if we can turn this remarkably bad  jet stream currently into a big snow event, it will be a triumph that is hard to understate or perhaps mother nature's "make-up call". Either way, the strong push of undercutting arctic cold that will ultimately produce a zone of heavy overrunning snow is a stunning turn, because it's not just snow, its the good powdery stuff, at least by Friday morning. 

The details go like this. We've still got a mild day Wednesday but 35-40 can be handled just fine and temperatures should hover near the freezing mark through much of Wednesday night. And this is the extent of the thaw that once looked potentially pretty threatening. Yes, we could see a period of light rain or freezing rain within a few hours of dawn Thursday, but this will amount to a few hundreths of an inch at most. By mid morning at the latest, our vertical temperature profiles support snow even with temperatures continuing to hover near the freezing mark. Most of the snow that falls Thursday will be pretty light, but still is likely to amount to 1-3 inches by evening and this is when the real fun begins. An organized wave of low pressure is expected to push north from the Gulf Coast early Thursday and bring heavier snowfall to Vermont Thursday evening well after the ski day. I've been nervous to go all in on this event because the cold, very dry airmass to the north clashing with an intense ridge leaves just a narrow zone of heavy snowfall, yet in spite of this, we appear to be in a very good spot. I point this out because a shift, north or south could still alter the forecast but the consensus right now is gold with a low end of snowfall being 8 inches Thursday night and a high end, if everything goes right of close to 20. Temperatures will be in the high 20's Thursday evening, but will drop into the teens early Friday as arctic air will be quick to clear things out and produce a bluebird day atop all that powder. We can expect a cold breeze Friday with temperatures near 10 on the mountain. 

Bitterly cold air will strengthen its grip on northern Vermong Saturday with a  few snow flurries mixed with some sunshine. Temperatures will struggle to reach the single numbers after starting sub-zero. Sunday is a bit more comfortable with temps climbing up past 20 with the help of an energized dose of February sunshine. There have been hints of a coastal system in the late Sunday into Monday time frame with the impact confined to southern New England and points south. It's worth watching this feature, but an interior New England impact from this appears unlikely.

The outlook over the next two weeks is decent. The jet stream in the Pacific will tighten next week and flood much of the nation with Pacific air. Fortunately this happens with the eastern Pacific/western North America ridge still present. The cold weather should hang tough in Vermont through Tuesday but temperatures in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame appear capable of sneaking up past the freezing mark in the valley though sub-freezing upper mountain temps should remain. Multiple clipper systems could also bring some snowfall to Vermont with the 2nd potentially getting energized by the coastal Atlantic before bringing a return to colder weather by the weekend of February 12th and 13th. There's good support on the ensembles for a decent period of cold through Valentine's Day and a few days beyond.