But it's all right cause I love you, and that's not going to change
Run me around and make me hurt again and again
But I'll still sing you love songs, written in the letter of your name
The rain is gonna come, oh it surely looks like rain
And rain it did late Wednesday at low elevations and it had no business doing that in this storm. The lack of arctic cold and the southwesterly flow blow torch that occurred pushed temperatures well in to the 40's across all valley areas of Vermont. Models have had a very poor handle on the track of this storm yet in terms of snow accumulation it should work out ok. Temperatures have remained below freezing above 2,500 feet and snow will continue to fall Wednesday night while mixed precipitation changes to snow Thursday morning in the valley areas. The projections for this latest storm have shifted this way and that and the difficulties pinning the track down stem the interactions with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Every storm is sensitive to the presence of the Atlantic Ocean and an area of convection in one place verses another can change the whole game and certainly can sway a forecast model one way or another. All that said, we'll still manage some snow out of all this, over 6 inches by the end of the day Thursday above the mid-station, 3-6 inches below the mid-station and about 1-3 in valley areas. The snow should continue through much of the ski day Thursday. It will be wet at the start of the day and turn powdery as temperatures fall toward 20 by the end of the day.
The chill returns for Friday with temperatures holding in the low teens. Expect some wind, expect clouds with a few breaks of sun and not much beyond a few snow flurries. Clouds return for Saturday along with moderating temperatures (upper 20's). The weather map is more interesting with a relatively vigorous clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes while another area of low pressure tries to get itself going along the Atlantic Coast. The idea would be for an enhancing area of snowfall to establish itself Saturday afternoon and begin impacting MRG late in the ski day. Some snow would then continue into the overnight and make for a nice powder day Sunday. There's been successive runs of the American GFS model that are spinning up a larger coastal storm on Sunday, but this model has performed atrociously this past week and to quote the movie "Meet the Parents", it is out of my circle of trust right now. If such a storm stays offshore (which seems a bit more likely), it would make for a drier Sunday after some accumulation during the prior overnight.
We got a legitimate outbreak of arctic air coming our direction, mainly after the MLK holiday. Both Sunday and Monday's temperatures should exceed the 20-degree mark during the ski day. A lighter snow accumulation late on MLK day then precedes the much colder air on Tuesday. The shallow, stable nature of this winter cold might put a cap on snowfall but there's two moisture-limited systems being indicated in the midweek period that could bring some accumulation. The more interesting part of the next week weather set up is the reemergence of the southeast ridge and how that might interact with the existing arctic air and then a reinforcing shot expected to arrive very late in the week. Quite possible we could be discussing another storm in the Friday/Saturday January 23rd-24th period.
Another healthy core of arctic air is expected to be well established across Canada for the end of January and there is every indication that a part or perhaps all of it could unload on eastern North America in multiple waves for the last full week of January. New England has been a good target for these outbreaks this year and there are indications we are getting targeted again. Models have been spinning up storms in this period as well which would suggest that one is possible. The pattern is getting anchored by a supportive (weak) Pacific jet and eventually a pretty significant negative AO setup for the end of the month.
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