Since about mid November, Vermont has been the beneficiary of a healthy mix of cold weather and snowfall. The rain which has occasionally has dented but not broken the snowpack and we have on the best early season foundations in several years. The snowstake at Mt Mansfield has us competing well with 2007-2008 and materially only trailing the winter of 1968-69 in depth. The one thing we don't want to see is 50-60 degree wind-driven wash out like what happened around the same time in 2018 when 2 feet of snow was just decimated. With each passing round of models this appears less likely for the upcoming weekend in spite of what still appears to be a less than optimal forecast.
We still have another snow event out ahead of our upcoming trouble spot. The last update included a 5-10 inch snow estimate. This wasn't a terrible guess and I would be inclined to keep it while mentioning that that total snow is more likely to land in the lower part of this range than the upper. Snow should begin just before midnight Wednesday and continue at a mostly light and occasionally moderate intensity through the middle of the morning Wednesday. Snow then should become very light by noon and continue through the evening with a minimal additional accumulation. No mixing is expected though temperatures are expected to climb up to around 30 on the lower mountain during the afternoon which could alter the consistency of snow later in the day. Some breaks in the overcast are expected for Thursday, a mild day relative to the last 40 with temperatures on much of the mountain reaching the freezing mark. No precipitation is expected for Thursday which makes the milder weather relatively harmless.
There are two pieces to the upcoming milder storm system. The first, approaching Friday, is a disorganized wave of low pressure expected to pass well into Quebec. The system's lack of potency is a good thing because although some occasional light rain is expected Friday, with temperatures around 40, we won't see anything especially heavy. The damage on Friday will come from southerly winds which could miss to the surface late on Friday providing an additional boost to temperatures and eating away at some of our snow. That period appears to be short-lived with a low level push of cold arriving early Saturday morning and sending temperatures back toward the freezing mark effectively ending the melting in northern Vermont. The 2nd part of the storm system then approaches as Saturday progresses, a much more organized low pressure area that will be tracking closer to the Canadian border and has a wedge of colder air situated over interior New England as precipitation falls. Latest model simulations are not quite cold enough to support snow (it's getting closer though), but they are cold enough to support freezing or sleet which would begin late in the day Saturday and continue through much of Saturday night. Some early cold rain Sunday is then indicated to change to a little snow before blustery conditions take over Sunday evening.
We begin to see the benefits of more relaxed jet stream conditions in the Pacific next week. With Canada being devoid of arctic cold, temperatures in Vermont should remain pretty moderate. Snow flurries or very light snow are not expected to yield substantial accumulations of snow, but the there appears to be a higher risk for more significant snow as the week progresses. Ensembles then carve out a jet stream signature that would suggest a more arctic situation for New England beginning around the 16th or 17th of the month.It appears to be classic La Nina with cold across the north dueling it out with lingering warmth over the southeast. It should create a few interesting weather scenarios to watch.
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