Being that January is the coldest climatological month of the winter season, it becomes a bit easier to generate respectable doses of winter even in the more marginal weather patterns. One can certainly make the case that Vermont snowfall often benefits from the more marginal setup while the pattern that overwhelms the region with arctic cold can leave the state with shallow stable cold that limits snow shower activity while the ferocity of the polar jet stream won't allow storms to get any northward momentum. Arctic air has a pretty firm grip on the Mad River Valley as of early 2026 but Pacific is up to its old mischief and is prepared to send the cold into retreat mode for the upcoming week. We should pick up some snowfall before any thaw commences, but January 10th continues to appear like a real problem.
No concerns over mild weather for the remainder of the weekend obviously. Blustery winds on the slopes and temperatures near 10 both days. Clouds and some snow flurries are likely Saturday and then a subtropical system should suck much of the cloudiness away for Sunday leaving us with a cold, bluebird type day to finish off our holiday period. Diminishing winds, clear skies and the snow cover will allow a few spots to reach 10 below for Monday morning and we won't have enough sun during the ensuing daylight hours to exceed the 10 above barrier during the afternoon.
As I mentioned, the mild air is preparing to make a big push in our direction. Warm advection clouds should advance into the region during the day Monday and light snow will fall out of those clouds later Monday into Monday night. Temperatures are expected to then moderate Tuesday, reaching the 20's and then an even heavier dose of overrunning, warm advection style snowfall is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Successive model runs are beginning to lock into this scenario and it certainly presents Wednesday as a really excellent chance to enjoy a bit of powder ahead of some problematic weather.
Thursday, the 8th of January, is certainly showing up as one of those milder days though it appears dry and readings on the mountain should not stray too far from the freezing mark. On Friday, the risk for some rainfall rises as a storm organizes in the middle of the the country while moisture out ahead of the low pressure area begins to encroach on the region. This is a bad looking jet stream and in a normal winter, we typically have to endure a few of these during the winter season. I can still envision a scenario where we could tap dance around a worse case scenario. This would involve arctic air making some sort of push into the region prior to the weekend of the 10th and 11th and undercutting the whale of an east coast ridge expected to build after January 8th. This remains possible while the worst case scenario of 50-plus temperatures, wind and rain is also quite possible. We should get some clarity as to what is most likely within the next 2-3 days
The weather pattern in the wake of whatever happens on January 10th certainly appears better though not a home run. We continue to expect dramatic improvements in jet stream activity in the Pacific and eventually a large ridge is expected to build in the extreme eastern Pacific Ocean extending northward into Alaska. This is a very typical La Nina setup and one that should light up the weather map with some interesting events. It will be difficult to chill what has been a very warm southeastern United States in this set up and it will also take some time to rebuild the core of cold in Canada that powered us to the coldest December in 25 years. The colder air across the north battling it out with those milder temperatures in the southeast represent the core ingredients for what could be some interesting events for us.
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