Snow showers Thursday begin a long stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snowfall

But it's all right cause I love you, and that's not going to change 

Run me around and make me hurt again and again 

But I'll still sing you love songs, written in the letter of your name

The rain is gonna come, oh it surely looks like rain 

 

 

 And rain it did late Wednesday at low elevations and it had no business doing that in this storm. The lack of arctic cold and the southwesterly flow blow torch that occurred pushed temperatures well in to the 40's across all valley areas of Vermont. Models have had a very poor handle on the track of this storm yet in terms of snow accumulation it should work out ok. Temperatures have remained below freezing above 2,500 feet and snow will continue to fall Wednesday night while mixed precipitation changes to snow Thursday morning in the valley areas. The projections for this latest storm have shifted this way and that and the difficulties pinning the track down stem the interactions with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Every storm is sensitive to the presence of the Atlantic Ocean and an area of convection in one place verses another can change the whole game and certainly can sway a forecast model one way or another. All that said, we'll still manage some snow out of all this, over 6 inches by the end of the day Thursday above the mid-station, 3-6 inches below the mid-station and about 1-3 in valley areas. The snow should continue through much of the ski day Thursday. It will be wet at the start of the day and turn powdery as temperatures fall toward 20 by the end of the day. 

 

The chill returns for Friday with temperatures holding in the low teens. Expect some wind, expect clouds with a few breaks of sun and not much beyond a few snow flurries. Clouds return for Saturday along with moderating temperatures (upper 20's). The weather map is more interesting with a relatively vigorous clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes while another area of low pressure tries to get itself going along the Atlantic Coast. The idea would be for an enhancing area of snowfall to establish itself Saturday afternoon and begin impacting MRG late in the ski day. Some snow would then continue into the overnight and make for a nice powder day Sunday. There's been successive runs of the American GFS model that are spinning up a larger coastal storm on Sunday, but this model has performed atrociously this past week and to quote the movie "Meet the Parents", it is out of my circle of trust right now. If such a storm stays offshore (which seems a bit more likely), it would make for a drier Sunday after some accumulation during the prior overnight. 

 

We got a legitimate outbreak of arctic air coming our direction, mainly after the MLK holiday. Both Sunday and Monday's temperatures should exceed the 20-degree mark during the ski day. A lighter snow accumulation late on MLK day then precedes the much colder air on Tuesday. The shallow, stable nature of this winter cold might put a cap on snowfall but there's two moisture-limited systems being indicated in the midweek period that could bring some accumulation. The more interesting part of the next week weather set up is the reemergence of the southeast ridge and how that might interact with the existing arctic air and then a reinforcing shot expected to arrive very late in the week. Quite possible we could be discussing another storm in the Friday/Saturday January 23rd-24th period. 

 

Another healthy core of arctic air is expected to be well established across Canada for the end of January and there is every indication that a part or perhaps all of it could unload on eastern North America in multiple waves for the last full week of January.  New England has been a good target for these outbreaks this year and there are indications we are getting targeted again. Models have been spinning up storms in this period as well which would suggest that one is possible. The pattern is getting anchored by a supportive (weak) Pacific jet and eventually a pretty significant negative AO setup for the end of the month. 

 

 

Excited for the Thursday and weekend snow setup and a little nervous we see some shifts in the forecast

Holes in what's left of my reason

Holes in the knees of my blues 

Odds against me been increasin' 

But I'll pull through 

Never could read no road map

And I don't know what the weather might do 

But hear that witch wind whinin' 

See that dog star shinin' 

I've got that feelin' there's no time to lose 

No time to lose  

 

 

Wonderful tune Saint of Circumstance that Bob wrote with John Perry Barlow usually attached in live performances with Lost Sailor. I can't swear an allegiance to the part where Bob sings repetitively about the "rain falling down" and fortunately I don't see any of that in this outlook. Though we salvaged the weekend and certainly avoided a worst case meltdown, we didn't get the snow I had hoped for Sunday morning or Sunday night. All that said, we've got some good news this week with the snow situation. Models have been shifting so rapidly and doing so daily that it's pretty difficult to pin the forecast down entirely. You have to operate like additional changes are inevitable. 

 

Though it god colder and more January like to start this week, we don't have the help of arctic air and  have some milder days ahead before the excitement begins. Southwest flow begins to develop Tuesday pushing temperatures in the valley areas above the freezing mark and making for a comfortable ski day on the mountains. Breaks in the overcast are more likely in the morning and midday period and some light snow can be expected in the evening. Models do indicate an accumulation by early Wednesday, but man I hate getting too excited about southwest flow type snow. Let's just call it less than 2 inches and probably of a wetter consistency since temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing mark for much of Tuesday night. On Wednesday we have another day of southwest flow, a mini torch with readings up around 40 in the valley. Clouds should prevent temperatures from getting too excessive and models aren't showing high winds which is positive. 

 

The somewhat mild air hits us ahead of a major and very interesting jet amplification. Models have had a very difficult time sorting out what the weather might do as a result of this jet stream event. For a couple of days, there were indications of a major coastal system and just some limited snowfall for northern Vermont. In the last day or so, models have backed off on the notion of a big city snow and are considerably more bullish snow for us. Just a simple question as how the storm in question intensifies and specifically the speed of  that intensification. Some caution is advised and this is related to all the changes I made mention of above. That said, simulations in the last 24 hours are converging on low pressure developing over eastern New England very early Thursday with an enhancing area of snow in New York state moving over us early in the day. That area of snowfall is indicated to intensify and power us to what could be our heaviest single day of accumulation this season. The winds are just aligned perfectly for some Lake Champlain help and my biggest concern is just another small shift in how this all might evolve so please make note of that. From the standpoint of potential though, this most certainly could bring us a foot of snow mostly during the day and into the evening Thursday. The Friday ski day might have some new snow on the ground, but none is expected during the day, just a standard blustery and pretty normal January day with temps in the teens to near 20. 

 

The excitement doesn't stop there as models suggesting this east coast trough gets reinforced by another potent jet stream impulse. New snow is likely both weekend days with the potential for a more significant accumulation Sunday. The polar jet is involved with this 2nd potential event which means more changes to the forecast are almost inevitable. Mostly, its just trying to gain some clarity on the type of weather event we are dealing with. Can we spin up a big time Miller A type storm that gets everyone including the coastal cities, or is it another garden variety type snow for most of ski country with some frigid arctic cold arriving Sunday night into MLK day. Temperatures do appear generally moderate through Sunday and then I would anticipate single digit temperatures on the mountain for Monday. 

 

It's possible we get hit with some of the coldest weather of the season between late Monday and early Wednesday though details still need some sorting. Later in the week, the southeast ridge fights back, allows the cold to moderate some while increasing the changes for an overrunning type snow event.  I was very encouraged with the teleconnection outlook which continues to show a favorable Pacific jet situation through the duration of January. We don't line up all the teleconnections entirely and I would suggest that we don't really want that this time of the year. Just keep enough cold arctic around to keep the snow flying without suppressing all the action to our south. 

Some snow Sunday night to hopefully start a winning stretch and my own Bobby tribute

Tough day losing Bob Weir, one of the original and best known members and voices of the Grateful Dead. Dead music has become engrained into the spirit of Mad River Glen and can be heard at the mid-station, the basebox and quite often the parking lot. It's been a tough week out there in the world and I had certainly not expected to get hit with this, especially since Bobby had been active and in seemingly good health. Seemed like the 4 winds were destined to blow him and us right through these troubled times or at least help us along for several more years. Lots of great tributes will certainly circulate in the coming days and I'll certainly read as many as possible and in the meantime share my own personal perspective. I've always been fascinated with the relationship time has with music. Specifically how it manages to filter bad music away while allowing the enduring music to do its thing. I saw the Grateful Dead with Jerry in June of 1995 when I was a teenager. Had you asked me then what I thought of the band, I might have dismissively told you they were overrated. The show I saw was unspectacular. Jerry was hurting, often hiding his face or even sitting and the larger stadium made it a rather impersonal experience. Then a few years went by, the internet matured and I started doing deep dives into "archives.org" and the growing list of shows that were being uploaded there. It was just spectacular hearing them through some of those better known peak eras like 1968, 1972-1974 or 1977. Then I got a few more DVDs to get the more visual perspective and I became a fan. The music was there, had been recorded, performed and would gradually get the appreciation from so many including the initial skeptics such as myself. That doesn't happen in music unless you do something original and sincere and perform that material like you really mean it. I loved the troubadour tunes that Bobby was able to add to the Grateful Dead catalog with the help of John Perry Barlow and much like Phil Lesh, who we lost late in 2024, he was able to bring the energy all the way through to the end. What a wonderful life lived and I am certainly grateful to have shared in part of that musical journey. 

Though we were able to turn the weekend colder and get some mixed precipitation that evolved into a bit of snow, I had hoped for an even better outcome, especially since some of the better moisture did find a way to us Saturday night. Early Sunday should feature the sliver of drier weather as the atmosphere turns colder behind the departing and consolidating storm over New Brunswick. This consolidation does bring with it a good window for some snow showers which should develop late Sunday and continue into part of Sunday night. Temperatures should hold in the 20's through much of the day Sunday and then drop into the teens along with some potent northwest winds. The snow shower set up is one of the better ones we've had in a while albeit short-lived and should be good for 3-6 inches for the ski day Monday. The incoming airmass is not especially arctic in nature which helps from an instability perspective. 

Our ski day Monday, January 12th looks like a rather typical January day. A little new snow overnight, a little blustery, chilly with temperatures in the 20's and just some limited sun trying to break through the pesky cloudiness. The next chance for snowfall comes late Tuesday from a vigorous and interesting jet disturbance bringing with an accompanying clipper system our way. Snow should begin after most of the ski day is over and continue into the evening. I might predict more snow and get more excited except I hate that southwest flow over us and would expect snow accumulations to stay on the lighter 1-4 inch side by early Wednesday. This upper air feature means business however and will carve out a massive hole in the jet stream over TN/KY early Thursday. Models are struggling to figure out how a storm might get cooked up out of all this, but more and more simulations are doing just that in various ways. Additional snow this week, mainly on Thursday is likely as a result and I would stay tuned and let the details sort themselves out as to gets what, how much and where. This is not an especially cold week in Vermont with temperatures expected to approach the freezing mark Wednesday before ending the week cold and blustery behind the bombing storm. 

Another jet amplification is certainly capable of producing some snow for MLK weekend before arctic air is reinserted into our forecast picture around the time of Monday January 19th to Wednesday the 21st. The cold appears a bit short-lived on more recent model runs yet retains a presence in Canada even as the cold modifies by the 23rd of 24th of January. I wouldn't guarantee it, but there's a high probability we are beginning a long sub-freezing stretch. 

Lazy lightnin' sleepy fire in your eyes it's like desire in disguise
I keep on tryin' but I, I can't get through
Lazy lightnin' I'd like to find the proper potion
That's gonna capture your emotion
You're right beside me but I, I can't get through 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The journey out of the dark, mild rainy upcoming weekend is complete and the forecast now calls for snow !

Congratulations everyone ! We managed to take a January meltdown kind of weekend and turn it into a mostly snow event. It's like a long trip out of some deep, dark dungeon and we managed to find our way to the beam of light. As someone who follows this stuff every day, I found this journey to be rather remarkable and I've certainly seen a few go the other direction so I'm going to drink to this one and enjoy the moment. 

Unfortunately, we still have to contend with Friday (Jan 9). Breaks in the overcast that provided some blue sky late on Thursday will allow temperatures to drop in to the teens and low 20's Friday morning. This is good, since we'll need every bit of extra cushion. The challenge really is to keep the wind down for as much of the day as possible. When added to milder, above freezing temperatures, wind can eat a lot of snow and in this case, has the effect of mixing even milder temperatures situated aloft, down to ground level. South winds have a decidedly negative relationship with our valley. Our localized "chinook" so to speak since they roar down off the Granville Gulf State Forest high country and produce wind gusts that often take us by surprise. I am emotionally scared by an event back in early February 2019, when south winds did just this over very deep snow cover and just obliterated it across low lying areas. Getting a morning with mostly sub-freezing temperatures and lower winds help prevent against that catastrophe repeating. Winds will increase during the afternoon and send temperatures into the low 40's I think. We also are expecting about a tenth of an inch of rain which I consider a moral victory given how the data looked a week ago. The wind-induced mild weather continues into the early evening with rain tapering off and then its over. Perhaps we can limit the period of wind if the inversion manages to hold, but regardless, temperatures and dewpoints willl drop by Saturday morning and the cold is just strong enough for a mostly sub-freezing day, albeit just barely, on the mountain. 

The storm system approaching for Saturday night, at least the initial area of low pressure, looks considerably weaker and this is a big reason for a colder looking storm. A new area of low pressure is expected to take shape over the Deep South and become the primary storm and this makes the entire weather situation dramatically different verses how it all looked 48 or 72 hours ago. The downside just involves the amount of precipitation since a weaker storm will produce less and farther south. I'll take the trade off. The ski day Saturday should stay dry with snow developing Saturday evening and continuing into early Saturday morning. This looks like a rather standard 3-6 snow given that we are not located in the most ideal conveyor of moisture; furthermore, we get hit with a punch of dry air that should minimize any snowfall for early Sunday. Fluffier snow showers, later Sunday into Sunday night are likely to add to the snow totals for the ski day on Monday to the tune of a few inches. 

The 2nd full week of January is expected to remain above normal yet colder than week 1 and mostly below the freezing mark.  I am intrigued with the setup in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame since a long wave amplification is expected without the help of the polar jet. Whether we can mix all the ingredients together for an east coast storm I can't answer yet, but I can provide folks with that possibility. Recall that next week is when the Pacific jet weakens and is expected to weaken further as we progress toward MLK weekend. By that point, we should see more intense intrusions of cold which will set us up for an arctic and wintry week to follow. La Nina still appears to be a factor in this game, deflecting some of this cold out of the south and providing the setup for additional winter storms. 

Snow early Wednesday, some lighter rain Friday and a mixed bag for the weekend

 Since about mid November, Vermont has been the beneficiary of a healthy mix of cold weather and snowfall. The rain which has occasionally has dented but not broken the snowpack and we have on the best early season foundations in several years. The snowstake at Mt Mansfield has us competing well with 2007-2008 and materially only trailing the winter of 1968-69 in depth. The one thing we don't want to see is 50-60 degree wind-driven wash out like what happened around the same time in 2018 when 2 feet of snow was just decimated. With each passing round of models this appears less likely for the upcoming weekend in spite of what still appears to be a less than optimal forecast. 

We still have another snow event out ahead of our upcoming trouble spot. The last update included a 5-10 inch snow estimate. This wasn't a terrible guess and I would be inclined to keep it while mentioning that that total snow is more likely to land in the lower part of this range than the upper. Snow should begin just before midnight Wednesday and  continue at a mostly light and occasionally moderate intensity through the middle of the morning Wednesday. Snow then should become very light by noon and continue through the evening with a minimal additional accumulation. No mixing is expected though temperatures are expected to climb up to around 30 on the lower mountain during the afternoon which could alter the consistency of snow later in the day. Some breaks in the overcast are expected for Thursday, a mild day relative to the last 40 with temperatures on much of the mountain reaching the freezing mark. No precipitation is expected for Thursday which makes the milder weather relatively harmless. 

There are two pieces to the upcoming milder storm system. The first, approaching Friday, is a disorganized wave of low pressure expected to pass well into Quebec. The system's lack of potency is a good thing because although some occasional light rain is expected Friday, with temperatures around 40, we won't see anything especially heavy. The damage on Friday will come from southerly winds  which could miss to the surface late on Friday providing an additional boost to temperatures and eating away at some of our snow. That period appears to be short-lived with a low level push of cold arriving early Saturday morning and sending temperatures back toward the freezing mark effectively ending the melting in northern Vermont. The 2nd part of the storm system then approaches as Saturday progresses, a much more organized low pressure area that will be tracking closer to the Canadian border and has a wedge of colder air situated over interior New England as precipitation falls. Latest model simulations are not quite cold enough to support snow (it's getting closer though), but they are cold enough to support freezing or sleet which would begin late in the day Saturday and continue through much of Saturday night. Some early cold rain Sunday is then indicated to change to a little snow before blustery conditions take over Sunday evening. 

We begin to see the benefits of more relaxed jet stream conditions in the Pacific next week. With Canada being devoid of arctic cold, temperatures in Vermont should remain pretty moderate. Snow flurries or very light snow are not expected to yield substantial accumulations of snow, but the there appears to be a higher risk for more significant snow as the week progresses. Ensembles then carve out a jet stream signature that would suggest a more arctic situation for New England beginning around the 16th or 17th of the month.It appears to be classic La Nina with cold across the north dueling it out with lingering warmth over the southeast. It should create a few interesting weather scenarios to watch.  

5-10 inch snow for Wednesday and the rain for the upcoming weekend at least looks colder

We've taken a step in the right direction regarding the thaw situation this upcoming Saturday. Far from an ideal forecast and I'll get to those details in a bit. Until then we have a couple of opportunities for snow, even as the cold weather goes into temporary retreat mode. 

Since the rain/ice situation on December 29th (about a week ago now), temperatures on the mountain have for the most part stayed below the 20-degree mark. Monday will mark the last of that stretch of days with temperatures remaining in the low teens. Retreating cold is often associated with lots of cloudiness and rest assured we will have plenty of that this week. Fortunately those clouds will produce a cold snow late in the ski day Monday. We can expect 2-3 inches out of this before the snow tapers off Monday night. Tuesday is expected to follow as another cloudy day with moderating temperatures. Readings should climb into the 20's with minimal wind. 

The storm system approaching us late Tuesday from the eastern Great Lakes looks a little better. We have just enough lingering cold air and the storm will track just far enough to the south to make this all work. Snow should develop late Tuesday evening and fall at a light or moderate intensity through a good part of the ski day Wednesday. This would be good enough for a 5-10 inch event on the mountain with temperatures hovering in the mid to high 20's, just low enough for a powdery consistency over the high country. My one concern with this event is that the possibility for some sneaky warm layer in the atmosphere to make for a period of freezing rain or drizzle if precipitation lightens up. Models show a close call, but keep us snow as of Sunday evening. We aren't expecting high winds with this weather system but the prevailing direction on Wednesday is southeasterly which has an up and down relationship with the single chair. 

Best chance to see some blue sky might come early Thursday, a mild day in the wake of the Wednesday snow and a dry one. Temperatures on the mountain might sneak above the freezing mark and certainly will do so in the valley, but with the low dewpoints expected, snow conditions shouldn't get damp yet. This changes on Friday with clouds, some occasional rain and a mild flow of air pushing temperatures and dewpoints up close to 40 degrees. The rain is certainly not a desirable outcome, though it does appear we can avoid a total calamity. The low level push of undercutting cold is alive and has altered the weather picture somewhat for Saturday and reduced the risk for some wind-driven 50-degree rain abomination. Asking for something frozen on Saturday is still a reach for now and more rain is still the most likely outcome. 35 degrees is considerably better than a few other alternatives though so lets start there and hope for continued improvements. 

Still see a more favorable Pacific jet stream in the middle of January. We will need some time to reestablish a core of cold in Canada and doesn't look like it will happen until after January 11th. The large ridge across the eastern Pacific extending up through Alaska bears some resemblance to the pattern we saw in the early to middle part of December and there are indications of more intense chill after the 13th or 14th. If the typical La Nina pattern holds up and keeps the southeast ridge alive, we will see some action.  

 

 

 

Decent round of snow coming late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a potential problematic January thaw

Being that January is the coldest climatological month of the winter season, it becomes a bit easier to generate respectable doses of winter even in the more marginal weather patterns. One can certainly make the case that Vermont snowfall often benefits from the more marginal setup while the pattern that overwhelms the region with arctic cold can leave the state with shallow stable cold that limits snow shower activity while the ferocity of the polar jet stream won't allow storms to get any northward momentum. Arctic air  has a pretty firm grip on the Mad River Valley as of early 2026 but Pacific is up to its old mischief and is prepared to send the cold into retreat mode for the upcoming week. We should pick up some snowfall before any thaw commences, but January 10th continues to appear like a real problem. 

No concerns over mild weather for the remainder of the weekend obviously. Blustery winds on the slopes and temperatures near 10 both days. Clouds and some snow flurries are likely Saturday and then a subtropical system should suck much of the cloudiness away for Sunday leaving us with a cold, bluebird type day to finish off our holiday period. Diminishing winds, clear skies and the snow cover will allow a few spots to reach 10 below for Monday morning and we won't have enough sun during the ensuing daylight hours to exceed the 10 above barrier during the afternoon. 

As I mentioned, the mild air is preparing to make a big push in our direction. Warm advection clouds should advance into the region during the day Monday and light snow will fall out of those clouds later Monday into Monday night. Temperatures are expected to then moderate Tuesday, reaching the 20's and then an even heavier dose of overrunning, warm advection style snowfall is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Successive model runs are beginning to lock into this scenario and it certainly presents Wednesday as a really excellent chance to enjoy a bit of powder ahead of some problematic weather. 

 Thursday, the 8th of January, is certainly showing up as one of those milder days though it appears dry and readings on the mountain should not stray too far from the freezing mark. On Friday, the risk for some rainfall rises as a storm organizes in the middle of the the country while moisture out ahead of the low pressure area begins to encroach on the region. This is a bad looking jet stream and in a normal winter, we typically have to endure a few of these during the winter season. I can still envision a scenario where we could tap dance around a worse case scenario. This would involve arctic air making some sort of push into the region prior to the weekend of the 10th and 11th and undercutting the whale of an east coast ridge expected to build after January 8th. This remains possible while the worst case scenario of 50-plus temperatures, wind and rain is also quite possible. We should get some clarity as to what is most likely within the next 2-3 days 

The weather pattern in the wake of whatever happens on January 10th certainly appears better though not a home run. We continue to expect dramatic improvements in jet stream activity in the Pacific and eventually a large ridge is expected to build in the extreme eastern Pacific Ocean extending northward into Alaska. This is a very typical La Nina setup and one that should light up the weather map with some interesting events.  It will be difficult to chill what has been a very warm southeastern United States in this set up and it will also take some time to rebuild the core of cold in Canada that powered us to the coldest December in 25 years. The colder air across the north battling it out with those milder temperatures in the southeast represent the core ingredients for what could be some interesting events for us.