Let's add some signifcant snowfall to this cold weather story !!

 The best magic trick I know would be tell you all that the bitterly cold weather we are bracing ourselves for is going to limit snowfall. Conventional wisdom only takes you so far however and inevitably the weather finds a way to produce some sort of unique outcome. This appears to be headed in that direction. While a powerful polar jet quite often does limit snowfall in January across northern Vermont by bringing both a stable boundary layer and suppressing the storm track, there's always an open door, especially along the east coast. 

We also have some lighter snowfall in the short term. Clipper system brings some Wednesday evening amounting to about 2-3 inches for the ski day Thursday. This was more or less in accordance with expectations. The snow shower setup during the day on Thursday appears very much improved. We don't have the benefit of the most favorable wind direction (this being northwest), but the atmospheric profile appears very unstable for January. Even with the west wind, we should be able to produce a few good bursts of snow on the mountain and some additional accumulations of 1-3 inches. The snow showers will in fact continue through half of Friday producing an additional light accumulation before the blast of arctic cold shuts it all down late Friday afternoon. Friday's arctic cold will come in hard and fast and temperatures will move lower very quickly, likely reaching subzero levels Friday evening. Until then however, the forecast is snowier and temperatures should reach the 20's on Thursday and may start closer to 15 early Friday before falling off the cliff late in the day. 

Bluebird weather for Saturday and bitterly cold with gusty northwest winds for most of the day. It's lining up to be the coldest actual day this decade. We had a day in early February 2023 which was 10 to 20 below for much of the ski day before temperatures warmed during the evening to about 10 above. This Saturday we can expect 10 to 15 below zero on the mountain during the ski day and no such warming Saturday evening. Readings could reach 20 below in a few valley locations Sunday morning before some morning sunshine pushes readings toward zero degrees during the afternoon. 

The big story though has evolved from simply just cold weather and now includes snow for many more places including Vermont. Yes, the northward shift is back and has arrived early enough for a happy Wednesday update.  The polar jet has arrived as advertised and many times it might just overpower the pattern and suppress all storms and yet the southeast ridge is still there and appears destined to poke it's nose up the east coast late this weekend before vanishing. It does so just as a piece of the polar vortex is driven out into the open Atlantic Ocean. We thus have an open door and multiple areas of low pressure, one in eastern Kentucky and another off the Virginia coast midday Sunday, sending cold moisture in our direction. It will be a sizable winter storm and a cold one for the entirety of the east coast, probably the coldest storm this decade. New York City will get a big accumulation of snow and probably some sleet as well while snow is could arrive in  Vermont (our part of Vermont) by midday Sunday. It's rather incredible and somewhat ironic, because we are situated pretty well for this. The coastal storm is expected to exit stage right by Monday leaving the remnants of the inland low pressure area and an associated area of moisture over the Adirondacks, Green and White Mountains for Monday. It's early and there are models that keep much of the snowfall to our south still,but the trend is our friend right now. 10-20 inches or something like that is suddenly quite reasonable and this looked very dry just two days ago. 

It remains very cold in the wake of the Sunday/Monday snow, assuming that trend remains our friend. Though temperatures will be below zero on a few of those mornings next week, I do think the cold is set to peak in that late Friday to early Sunday time frame (this weekend). The cold next week will feature temperatures in the +5 to +15 range for most of the ski days and many of today days will have gusty winds. Models have been spinning up another storm late next week in response to an amplifying jet stream. Arctic patterns do favor coastal hits over inland hits, yet as this weekend is set to prove, you just never know. 

Arctic air is expected to weaken it's grip in early February for much of North America while likely remaining a factor for New England. That part of the forecast appears colder as well.  

Bitterly cold arctic air expected to limit snowfall through the middle of next week

If your a fan of colder weather, please take a moment and enjoy the update you are about to receive. I took more than a few moments myself to look back at some of the colder multi-day periods I can remember in Vermont  just to see if we might be able to compete with some of those and we might. We just celebrated the 30 year anniversary of the blizzard of '96, a storm that missed Vermont entirely. In spite of that, we had deep snow that December into early January and became the main target for the cold air that supported that east coast blizzard. For almost a week, temperatures across the northern Vermont high country stayed below zero. We had a similar long duration cold wave hit us late in 2017 right after Christmas. It was the only recent Christmas holiday going back 20 years without a thaw and the skiing on Christmas was fantastic. Then we got about 5-6 consecutive days of sub-zero weather on the mountain to carry us into early 2018. We've actually had more 1-2 day cold waves that have hit us, even in some of the recent warmer years so to really stand out as something memorable, we will have to stay in the deep freeze for 3 or more days. I have not forgotten February 2015 also which was cold that sustained itself for over a month. Though, it looks a little different than the 2015 weather, the cold will have some lasting power. 

MLK holiday was also quite chilly but this is not the type of intense cold I am talking about. We get a tease on Tuesday (Jan 20th), yet the airmass in question will have a chance to modify after going over the relative warmth of the unfrozen Great Lakes and temperatures are likely to stay in the single numbers (the positive side). Expect westerly winds to be gusty with flurries and snow showers, much like the weather saw on the mountain last Friday only this time, we aren't expecting much in the way of snowfall. Maybe around an inch Monday night with more in the Stowe to Jay corridor. Sunshine and below zero temperatures will start us off on Wednesday and then clouds will envelop the state and light snow will develop very late in the ski day. This is a respectable BC clipper system and a cold pattern overall and somehow we end up in the drier and warmer quadrant of what is a moisture-starved system anyway. Still, we are still capable of scoring 2-4 inches Wednesday night into the day Thursday. Temperatures will also moderate in that period rising to about 20 on Wednesday afternoon, warming into the mid 20's Wednesday night and then holding just below 30 most of Thursday. Enjoy that because the deep freeze arrives Friday. 

Unfortunately, these types of polar jet dominated situations limit snowfall. They have the propensity to stabilize the lower troposphere while pushing the storm track southward. I am operating under the assumption that both are likely beginning this weekend. Still, we have the favorable wind direction and an unfrozen Lake Champlain and this might be enough for some wind driven light snow showers Friday. The big story is the wind chill and increasing cold throughout that day. It's one of those situations where the high temperature will be set at midnight, a meaningless statistic that doesn't reflect the weather during the ensuing day, temperatures near 10 at sunrise and then likely below zero by sunset. 20-30 mph winds will make that feel considerably colder. We should then be able to keep readings below zero all day Saturday with similar wind speeds. Maybe the Champlain Valley can inch above zero while readings on the mountain will be closer to 10 below. A possible Mid-Atlantic snowstorm is brewing for Sunday while Vermont should stay dry and cold. Temperatures might reach zero on the mountain and the bigger relief should come in the form of relaxing wind speeds. 

Light snow is possible on Monday (Jan 26th) as the cold is reinforced, but I think snow accumulations are minimal again. The cold weather will continue to be the story with temperatures likely staying below 10 through Wednesday (Jan 28). After a respite from the wind on Sunday into Monday, more wind can be expected Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles show a strong signal for an east coast snowstorm later next week. Though its not a pattern that would support such a storm venturing too far northward and impacting Vermont, the pattern does start to relax as the week progresses and gives us at least a chance. 

I also continue to see some discussion about a pattern flip to warmer weather in February and I would disagree with those assertions. The intensity of arctic cold will relent considerably as the month flips to February and the nature of the jet stream in the Pacific is certainly expected to shift to a stormier one. With that said, there's continued to support for winter weather across the northeast quadrant of the US and much of SE Canada. 

Multiple outbreaks of cold of increasing intensity for the upcoming week along with lighter snows

Took a little longer than expected, but Mad River Glen did score the coveted Lake Champlain fluff late on Thursday and Thursday night and the mountain is coming out of this week in pretty good shape. Temperatures were stuck near 10 degrees Friday afternoon and this begins a pattern that will ensure plenty of arctic chill is impacting both New England and much of eastern North America. 

Expect a snowy day Saturday as a clipper system in the Great Lakes brings its limited moisture in our direction. Southwesterly flow will help moderate temperatures substantially and skiers can expect afternoon readings in the 20's along with respectable 10-20 mph winds. Snowfall will be mostly light and begin before dawn and then continue through much of the ski day. Storminess off the Atlantic Coast will help make for a dry Sunday with breaks in the overcast. Winds will be similar though a bit more westerly as opposed to southwesterly and temperatures will be about 5 colder than Saturday. 

Those westerly winds become a little stiffer for MLK day as some early sunshine gives way to cloudiness. Snow showers are expected, but they appear most likely after the ski day Monday with that early sun helping to boost temperatures up to around 20 degrees at the base. The arctic front roars through Monday night bringing with it a light accumulation of snow and near zero degree temperatures for Tuesday morning. We can expect some sunshine to go along with single digit temperatures on Tuesday and those generally clear skies are expected to persist until early Wednesday before warm advection cloudiness envelopes the region. Those clouds will help keep temperatures in the teens for the middle of the week and most importantly will also bring some snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday. This is the result of a weak area of low pressure that will make every effort to strengthen some and grab what little moisture is available. It's also expected to mark the advance of a reinforcing, stronger shot of arctic chill for Friday ahead of what we expect to be a cold last full weekend of January. Important to leave some room for forecast alterations late in the week. The southeast ridge will get mostly overwhelmed with arctic cold, but is still present and capable of spinning up more storminess Friday into Saturday. Much of that is likely to get aimed farther south with polar jet on top of us while cold is more likely to win both days. That said, I'll leave a little room there for a surprise. 

The big story, beginning Friday Jan 23rd, will be the bitterly cold arctic air, the strongest of the season most likely. If we can Friday up to about 10 degrees we are doing well; after that, it looks like we will have to endure a stretch of subzero weather that could last longer than a day. Not totally sure if that's a Saturday/Sunday (24th-25th) issue or a Sunday/Monday (25th-26th) issue and either way, all three days will be extremely cold and accompanied by some significant wind and have a wind chill factor worth preparing for. Models are suggesting a favorable wind direction for snow showers yet cold like this mostly comes at us with a shallow and very stable atmospheric temperature profile. This means we get some good visibility and blue sky to accompany the bitter chill. 

Teleconnections support from both the EPO and AO are the driving fundamentals supporting the pattern at least at jet stream level. Toward the end of January, ensembles are predicting the mid-latitude Pacific to get very stormy which is a change from the next two weeks. Because much of this storminess is expected at lower latitudes, it's not expected to shift the EPO into a more adversarial position. We are also expected to retain some support from the AO. There appears to be some thinking out there that would suggest a capitulation of arctic cold in early February and I don't see evidence of that yet. If the aforementioned Pacific storminess, undercuts the ridging in western North America and produces split flow, we will certainly see wintry conditions continue to dominate the Great Lakes and New England. 

 

 

Snow showers Thursday begin a long stretch of cold weather accompanied by some snowfall

But it's all right cause I love you, and that's not going to change 

Run me around and make me hurt again and again 

But I'll still sing you love songs, written in the letter of your name

The rain is gonna come, oh it surely looks like rain 

 

 

 And rain it did late Wednesday at low elevations and it had no business doing that in this storm. The lack of arctic cold and the southwesterly flow blow torch that occurred pushed temperatures well in to the 40's across all valley areas of Vermont. Models have had a very poor handle on the track of this storm yet in terms of snow accumulation it should work out ok. Temperatures have remained below freezing above 2,500 feet and snow will continue to fall Wednesday night while mixed precipitation changes to snow Thursday morning in the valley areas. The projections for this latest storm have shifted this way and that and the difficulties pinning the track down stem the interactions with the relative warmth of the Atlantic Ocean. Every storm is sensitive to the presence of the Atlantic Ocean and an area of convection in one place verses another can change the whole game and certainly can sway a forecast model one way or another. All that said, we'll still manage some snow out of all this, over 6 inches by the end of the day Thursday above the mid-station, 3-6 inches below the mid-station and about 1-3 in valley areas. The snow should continue through much of the ski day Thursday. It will be wet at the start of the day and turn powdery as temperatures fall toward 20 by the end of the day. 

 

The chill returns for Friday with temperatures holding in the low teens. Expect some wind, expect clouds with a few breaks of sun and not much beyond a few snow flurries. Clouds return for Saturday along with moderating temperatures (upper 20's). The weather map is more interesting with a relatively vigorous clipper system in the eastern Great Lakes while another area of low pressure tries to get itself going along the Atlantic Coast. The idea would be for an enhancing area of snowfall to establish itself Saturday afternoon and begin impacting MRG late in the ski day. Some snow would then continue into the overnight and make for a nice powder day Sunday. There's been successive runs of the American GFS model that are spinning up a larger coastal storm on Sunday, but this model has performed atrociously this past week and to quote the movie "Meet the Parents", it is out of my circle of trust right now. If such a storm stays offshore (which seems a bit more likely), it would make for a drier Sunday after some accumulation during the prior overnight. 

 

We got a legitimate outbreak of arctic air coming our direction, mainly after the MLK holiday. Both Sunday and Monday's temperatures should exceed the 20-degree mark during the ski day. A lighter snow accumulation late on MLK day then precedes the much colder air on Tuesday. The shallow, stable nature of this winter cold might put a cap on snowfall but there's two moisture-limited systems being indicated in the midweek period that could bring some accumulation. The more interesting part of the next week weather set up is the reemergence of the southeast ridge and how that might interact with the existing arctic air and then a reinforcing shot expected to arrive very late in the week. Quite possible we could be discussing another storm in the Friday/Saturday January 23rd-24th period. 

 

Another healthy core of arctic air is expected to be well established across Canada for the end of January and there is every indication that a part or perhaps all of it could unload on eastern North America in multiple waves for the last full week of January.  New England has been a good target for these outbreaks this year and there are indications we are getting targeted again. Models have been spinning up storms in this period as well which would suggest that one is possible. The pattern is getting anchored by a supportive (weak) Pacific jet and eventually a pretty significant negative AO setup for the end of the month. 

 

 

Excited for the Thursday and weekend snow setup and a little nervous we see some shifts in the forecast

Holes in what's left of my reason

Holes in the knees of my blues 

Odds against me been increasin' 

But I'll pull through 

Never could read no road map

And I don't know what the weather might do 

But hear that witch wind whinin' 

See that dog star shinin' 

I've got that feelin' there's no time to lose 

No time to lose  

 

 

Wonderful tune Saint of Circumstance that Bob wrote with John Perry Barlow usually attached in live performances with Lost Sailor. I can't swear an allegiance to the part where Bob sings repetitively about the "rain falling down" and fortunately I don't see any of that in this outlook. Though we salvaged the weekend and certainly avoided a worst case meltdown, we didn't get the snow I had hoped for Sunday morning or Sunday night. All that said, we've got some good news this week with the snow situation. Models have been shifting so rapidly and doing so daily that it's pretty difficult to pin the forecast down entirely. You have to operate like additional changes are inevitable. 

 

Though it god colder and more January like to start this week, we don't have the help of arctic air and  have some milder days ahead before the excitement begins. Southwest flow begins to develop Tuesday pushing temperatures in the valley areas above the freezing mark and making for a comfortable ski day on the mountains. Breaks in the overcast are more likely in the morning and midday period and some light snow can be expected in the evening. Models do indicate an accumulation by early Wednesday, but man I hate getting too excited about southwest flow type snow. Let's just call it less than 2 inches and probably of a wetter consistency since temperatures are expected to hover around the freezing mark for much of Tuesday night. On Wednesday we have another day of southwest flow, a mini torch with readings up around 40 in the valley. Clouds should prevent temperatures from getting too excessive and models aren't showing high winds which is positive. 

 

The somewhat mild air hits us ahead of a major and very interesting jet amplification. Models have had a very difficult time sorting out what the weather might do as a result of this jet stream event. For a couple of days, there were indications of a major coastal system and just some limited snowfall for northern Vermont. In the last day or so, models have backed off on the notion of a big city snow and are considerably more bullish snow for us. Just a simple question as how the storm in question intensifies and specifically the speed of  that intensification. Some caution is advised and this is related to all the changes I made mention of above. That said, simulations in the last 24 hours are converging on low pressure developing over eastern New England very early Thursday with an enhancing area of snow in New York state moving over us early in the day. That area of snowfall is indicated to intensify and power us to what could be our heaviest single day of accumulation this season. The winds are just aligned perfectly for some Lake Champlain help and my biggest concern is just another small shift in how this all might evolve so please make note of that. From the standpoint of potential though, this most certainly could bring us a foot of snow mostly during the day and into the evening Thursday. The Friday ski day might have some new snow on the ground, but none is expected during the day, just a standard blustery and pretty normal January day with temps in the teens to near 20. 

 

The excitement doesn't stop there as models suggesting this east coast trough gets reinforced by another potent jet stream impulse. New snow is likely both weekend days with the potential for a more significant accumulation Sunday. The polar jet is involved with this 2nd potential event which means more changes to the forecast are almost inevitable. Mostly, its just trying to gain some clarity on the type of weather event we are dealing with. Can we spin up a big time Miller A type storm that gets everyone including the coastal cities, or is it another garden variety type snow for most of ski country with some frigid arctic cold arriving Sunday night into MLK day. Temperatures do appear generally moderate through Sunday and then I would anticipate single digit temperatures on the mountain for Monday. 

 

It's possible we get hit with some of the coldest weather of the season between late Monday and early Wednesday though details still need some sorting. Later in the week, the southeast ridge fights back, allows the cold to moderate some while increasing the changes for an overrunning type snow event.  I was very encouraged with the teleconnection outlook which continues to show a favorable Pacific jet situation through the duration of January. We don't line up all the teleconnections entirely and I would suggest that we don't really want that this time of the year. Just keep enough cold arctic around to keep the snow flying without suppressing all the action to our south. 

Some snow Sunday night to hopefully start a winning stretch and my own Bobby tribute

Tough day losing Bob Weir, one of the original and best known members and voices of the Grateful Dead. Dead music has become engrained into the spirit of Mad River Glen and can be heard at the mid-station, the basebox and quite often the parking lot. It's been a tough week out there in the world and I had certainly not expected to get hit with this, especially since Bobby had been active and in seemingly good health. Seemed like the 4 winds were destined to blow him and us right through these troubled times or at least help us along for several more years. Lots of great tributes will certainly circulate in the coming days and I'll certainly read as many as possible and in the meantime share my own personal perspective. I've always been fascinated with the relationship time has with music. Specifically how it manages to filter bad music away while allowing the enduring music to do its thing. I saw the Grateful Dead with Jerry in June of 1995 when I was a teenager. Had you asked me then what I thought of the band, I might have dismissively told you they were overrated. The show I saw was unspectacular. Jerry was hurting, often hiding his face or even sitting and the larger stadium made it a rather impersonal experience. Then a few years went by, the internet matured and I started doing deep dives into "archives.org" and the growing list of shows that were being uploaded there. It was just spectacular hearing them through some of those better known peak eras like 1968, 1972-1974 or 1977. Then I got a few more DVDs to get the more visual perspective and I became a fan. The music was there, had been recorded, performed and would gradually get the appreciation from so many including the initial skeptics such as myself. That doesn't happen in music unless you do something original and sincere and perform that material like you really mean it. I loved the troubadour tunes that Bobby was able to add to the Grateful Dead catalog with the help of John Perry Barlow and much like Phil Lesh, who we lost late in 2024, he was able to bring the energy all the way through to the end. What a wonderful life lived and I am certainly grateful to have shared in part of that musical journey. 

Though we were able to turn the weekend colder and get some mixed precipitation that evolved into a bit of snow, I had hoped for an even better outcome, especially since some of the better moisture did find a way to us Saturday night. Early Sunday should feature the sliver of drier weather as the atmosphere turns colder behind the departing and consolidating storm over New Brunswick. This consolidation does bring with it a good window for some snow showers which should develop late Sunday and continue into part of Sunday night. Temperatures should hold in the 20's through much of the day Sunday and then drop into the teens along with some potent northwest winds. The snow shower set up is one of the better ones we've had in a while albeit short-lived and should be good for 3-6 inches for the ski day Monday. The incoming airmass is not especially arctic in nature which helps from an instability perspective. 

Our ski day Monday, January 12th looks like a rather typical January day. A little new snow overnight, a little blustery, chilly with temperatures in the 20's and just some limited sun trying to break through the pesky cloudiness. The next chance for snowfall comes late Tuesday from a vigorous and interesting jet disturbance bringing with an accompanying clipper system our way. Snow should begin after most of the ski day is over and continue into the evening. I might predict more snow and get more excited except I hate that southwest flow over us and would expect snow accumulations to stay on the lighter 1-4 inch side by early Wednesday. This upper air feature means business however and will carve out a massive hole in the jet stream over TN/KY early Thursday. Models are struggling to figure out how a storm might get cooked up out of all this, but more and more simulations are doing just that in various ways. Additional snow this week, mainly on Thursday is likely as a result and I would stay tuned and let the details sort themselves out as to gets what, how much and where. This is not an especially cold week in Vermont with temperatures expected to approach the freezing mark Wednesday before ending the week cold and blustery behind the bombing storm. 

Another jet amplification is certainly capable of producing some snow for MLK weekend before arctic air is reinserted into our forecast picture around the time of Monday January 19th to Wednesday the 21st. The cold appears a bit short-lived on more recent model runs yet retains a presence in Canada even as the cold modifies by the 23rd of 24th of January. I wouldn't guarantee it, but there's a high probability we are beginning a long sub-freezing stretch. 

Lazy lightnin' sleepy fire in your eyes it's like desire in disguise
I keep on tryin' but I, I can't get through
Lazy lightnin' I'd like to find the proper potion
That's gonna capture your emotion
You're right beside me but I, I can't get through 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The journey out of the dark, mild rainy upcoming weekend is complete and the forecast now calls for snow !

Congratulations everyone ! We managed to take a January meltdown kind of weekend and turn it into a mostly snow event. It's like a long trip out of some deep, dark dungeon and we managed to find our way to the beam of light. As someone who follows this stuff every day, I found this journey to be rather remarkable and I've certainly seen a few go the other direction so I'm going to drink to this one and enjoy the moment. 

Unfortunately, we still have to contend with Friday (Jan 9). Breaks in the overcast that provided some blue sky late on Thursday will allow temperatures to drop in to the teens and low 20's Friday morning. This is good, since we'll need every bit of extra cushion. The challenge really is to keep the wind down for as much of the day as possible. When added to milder, above freezing temperatures, wind can eat a lot of snow and in this case, has the effect of mixing even milder temperatures situated aloft, down to ground level. South winds have a decidedly negative relationship with our valley. Our localized "chinook" so to speak since they roar down off the Granville Gulf State Forest high country and produce wind gusts that often take us by surprise. I am emotionally scared by an event back in early February 2019, when south winds did just this over very deep snow cover and just obliterated it across low lying areas. Getting a morning with mostly sub-freezing temperatures and lower winds help prevent against that catastrophe repeating. Winds will increase during the afternoon and send temperatures into the low 40's I think. We also are expecting about a tenth of an inch of rain which I consider a moral victory given how the data looked a week ago. The wind-induced mild weather continues into the early evening with rain tapering off and then its over. Perhaps we can limit the period of wind if the inversion manages to hold, but regardless, temperatures and dewpoints willl drop by Saturday morning and the cold is just strong enough for a mostly sub-freezing day, albeit just barely, on the mountain. 

The storm system approaching for Saturday night, at least the initial area of low pressure, looks considerably weaker and this is a big reason for a colder looking storm. A new area of low pressure is expected to take shape over the Deep South and become the primary storm and this makes the entire weather situation dramatically different verses how it all looked 48 or 72 hours ago. The downside just involves the amount of precipitation since a weaker storm will produce less and farther south. I'll take the trade off. The ski day Saturday should stay dry with snow developing Saturday evening and continuing into early Saturday morning. This looks like a rather standard 3-6 snow given that we are not located in the most ideal conveyor of moisture; furthermore, we get hit with a punch of dry air that should minimize any snowfall for early Sunday. Fluffier snow showers, later Sunday into Sunday night are likely to add to the snow totals for the ski day on Monday to the tune of a few inches. 

The 2nd full week of January is expected to remain above normal yet colder than week 1 and mostly below the freezing mark.  I am intrigued with the setup in the late Wednesday to Thursday time frame since a long wave amplification is expected without the help of the polar jet. Whether we can mix all the ingredients together for an east coast storm I can't answer yet, but I can provide folks with that possibility. Recall that next week is when the Pacific jet weakens and is expected to weaken further as we progress toward MLK weekend. By that point, we should see more intense intrusions of cold which will set us up for an arctic and wintry week to follow. La Nina still appears to be a factor in this game, deflecting some of this cold out of the south and providing the setup for additional winter storms.