Winds will continue to gradually subside and cold to relax for the weekend

 Winds remain gusty on the mountain, but they've lessened some and skies are very blue as an area of low pressure gathers strength well to our south. As expected, no storm late this week for us and not much one for anyone in the northeast. One has to travel to the unusual spot of Norfolk, VA to find fresh powder and this is not a place that often sees any. There's some light snow indicated for the mountains Thursday night with a dusting the most likely accumulation amount. During the day Thursday, we should see more sunshine early and an increase in clouds later in the day. Winds will remain gusty Thursday and diminish somewhat for Friday under at least some sunshine. 

 The polar jet and associated cold air is expected to relax considerably beginning this weekend, but don't be fooled, winter isn't done nor are outbreaks of some bitterly cold air. This weekend will be quiet however. Winds will continue to diminish on what looks to be an outstanding weather day on Saturday where sunshine will warm readings from near zero to 20 degrees. Clouds and some light snow are expected to return for Sunday and temperatures are expected to continue to moderate, reaching the high 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Relative to what we've seen for much of this month and the entire 2025 calendar year so far, the early part of next week looks pretty mild. In actual temperatures, it won't be too big of a deal. Some sunshine on Monday will boost temperatures up close to the freezing mark Monday and clouds Monday night are likely to keep temperatures pretty steady Monday night. The clouds are from a clipper system that is expected to drop a bit of snow over the mountains both during the overnight and on Tuesday. I don't like forecasting a lot of snow for MRG when the prevailing flow is southwesterly and unless the nature of this weak weather system changes, accumulations should be on the lighter side, though it won't be zero and we we shouldn't expect mixed precipitation or rain on the mountain. Temperatures are expected to remain within range of the freezing mark Wednesday and Thursday and then the stars appear to be aligning for what could be our next significant event on the final day of the month. Much could go wrong with this potential storm as it appears to be a clipper that needs to catch some coastal dynamite or some close iteration of that. A surge of cold air can be expected for the first full weekend of March, whatever happens with Friday and away we go into March. 

The biggest feature driving the weather pattern for the early part of March is a beautiful looking ridge near the Alaskan/Yukon border. This feature will make things very interesting for the first 10 days of the month with the continued presence of arctic cold a virtual certainty and while ensembles hint at the presence of more storminess. This is the first time in a while we can go into March with cold weather feedbacks blowing in our direction. The persistent cold air has put a lot of  ice on the Great Lakes, might freeze Lake Champlain in the coming days and has placed an area of colder water in the coastal waters of the northeast. Barring a big overwhelming pattern shift, it should be a slow spring or at least that's what I would expect.

Dry forecast includes more sun this week with the continued presence of strong winds

 Hope everyone is enjoying the snow and staying at least somewhat protected from the wind. Though the wind speed will certainly peak Monday, expect it to be a factor throughout the week. Late February sunshine will certainly help and we appear to have more of that, especially in the Wednesday through Friday stretch. Clouds and flurries are expected to accompany another day of strong winds and bitterly cold temperatures on Tuesday. Readings aren't expected to stray too far from zero on the mountain and wind gusts over 30 on the upper mountain will make it feel like 30 below. Needless to say, prepare accordingly. We continue to expect a storm to gather strength across the southeast on Wednesday, but its attempt to become a major Miller-A nor'easter and move up the coast is likely to get thwarted as the pattern is expected to de-amplify a bit earlier than expected. The effect of having a strengthening storm to our south will help decrease the cloud cover late in the week as I mentioned and certainly  make the forecast drier. It's just the wind, which will continue to blow along with temperatures that rise to 10 on Wednesday, 15 or so Thursday and 20 degrees Friday. Morning readings are likely to get below zero slightly, though the continued presence of the wind will keep overnight readings higher than they might be otherwise.

Cloudiness is expectred to  return for the upcoming weekend and the trend of moving daytime temperatures up about 5 degrees each day will continue. Light snow is possible for Sunday thanks to an approaching clipper system and most importantly, we should finally see winds diminish somewhat though not entirely.

Winter is expected to get held in place across interior New England by the presence of the +PNA or ridge in western North America. This is a precarious hold however as all other forms of support appear to be, at least temporarily, vanishing. This will allow the polar jet to soften and retreat somewhat and temperatures across a widespread area of eastern North America will moderate substantially. Across Vermont, the door appears very open for more snowfall. The midday model update didn't provide for much agreement on the specifics for next week but storms were shown on each model at varying times so form of material snowfall appears more likely than not. Also, don't be fooled by the polar retreat next week, ensembles are beginning to align themselves toward a colder start to March, supported mainly by another building ridge near the Alaska/Yukon border. Alaska has had a very warm winter which has fueled the persistent nature of the cold weather this year and we now have support of feedback mechanisms that will provide continuous support for this going into March. When it rains it pours and when its cold it's likely to stay cold is actually a real thing. Weather can streak for a reason as chaotic as it can seem.

Still on target for 15-30", just expect some sleet Sunday afternoon before a snowy finish Sunday night into Monday

 Folks, this storm deserves one final update and I think we've been generally on target with our expectations and at this point can just expand on key details. Light snow is expected to develop right around sunset Saturday and continue at a steady pace throughout the night. Modest snowfall rates during the overnight hours will allow 5-8 inches of snow by daybreak Sunday and then we can anticipate a burst of heavy snow from right around when lifts begin to spin until midday. Winds will be cranking at the summit considering the intensity of the storm, blowing out of the east-northeast most of the day. The burst of morning heavy snow will get us to the 8-12 inch accumulation range and then we can expect a period of sleet for several hours during the afternoon. This will remain a cold storm with temperatures generally in the teens on the mountain, rising into the 20's when winds begin to shift Sunday evening. This wind shift will effectively end the sleet and bring another round of fluffier snowfall to MRG and our surrounding mountains. I feel good about the range we have. Most of the simulations aren't snowing a ton of snow on the back end, but the flow looks outstanding coming off Lake Champlain and the mountains should be on the receiving end of some healthy additional snowfall Sunday night into a cold and blustery Monday morning. It won't be a wet snow Sunday given where temperatures are, though it will still be a dense snow made denser by the period of sleet. The consistency of Sunday night snowfall will be fluffier, but high winds will result in lots of drifting on the trails. The high density of the sleet will actually help the drifting from getting too excessive. 15-30 still seems like a good range and its the kind that doesn't melt easy which will serve us well in another month.

Both Monday and Tuesday look to feature some outstanding skiing, just prepare for the elements that will include single digit temperatures and wind gusts up over 40 on the summits. Clouds and lighter snow showers are indicated to continue with sparse sunshine if at all. Winds are a bit lighter, temperatures are a bit less cold, and sunshine more prevalent on Wednesday when our next storm will be gathering in the south. I always love a good Miller-A event and the storm, Thursday Feb 20 appears to be a good one though not quite guaranteed. Coastal areas seem more favored to get the best of this storm as opposed to the interior with areas of Vermont getting a more gentle grazing though things tend to shift in the final days so stay tuned. Temperatures will remain chilly through Feb 23rd but will moderate. Friday should include some wind thanks to the departing storm followed by seasonable temperatures and perhaps some light snow for the last full weekend of February.

We defended well Thursday and now we await the strongest winter storm of the season with 15-30 expected, mostly Sunday

The Mad River Valley played some very clutch defense on Thursday. No, we weren't in the bullseye, but I was getting haunted by some of that high resolution data spitting out a tenth of an inch of freezing rain. In the end, we scored a bit of snow, had a brief period of sleet and then back to a nice midday round of heavy snow and it skied beautifully. Forecast data has inched back in our direction for the Sunday, February 16th and this places us at the southern edge of what should be the best storm of the season. More on that in a bit.  

Decent flow of cold air is set to deposit another 1-3 inches of snow on our mountains Thursday evening setting us up for a wintry, partially bluebird Friday. Temps are mostly in the teens, though winds are expected and could gust to 40 mph at the summits and will certainly bring wind chills well below zero. Saturday's winds will be pretty quiet (enjoy that) and this will allow morning temperatures to be a bit below zero before rising into the teens Saturday afternoon under a thickening blanket of clouds. 

Here we go with our storm. Snow is expected to develop Saturday evening and intensify quickly. We won't need to worry about any complex phasing or coastal redevelopment as a already strong low pressure area is expected to advance into the Ohio Valley Saturday night and eventually evolve into a coastal bomb in the Gulf of Maine (980 mb). This trajectory is pretty solid for us, but the strong area of low pressure is predicted to be close, crossing our longitude somewhere in southern Vermont. This places us in an area where precipitation could mix with or change to sleet or a dry slot could get at us and prevent a 3 foot accumulation. Let's be honest, these are not bad problems to have. We are going to see intense snowfall regardless, especially Saturday night into early Sunday. Any sleet or storm lull would be most likely Sunday morning before more snowfall late in the day Sunday into Sunday night. Going to keep the 15-30 inch snowfall expectation the same. A northward shift could put us us under that, a southward shift places us in the 2-3 feet category. No question this is the most intense winter storm so far this season. 

With any strong storm we can expect wind. This should start becoming a factor Sunday morning blowing from the east or east northeast for much of the ski day. During the evening, we should see winds shift and become westerly. Snow should continue into Sunday night and become lighter snow showers by the ski day Monday. Models are keeping the core of the coldest air to our west now as of some recent model updates and this is somewhat laughable as winds will ferocious both Monday and Tuesday and gusts up past 40 mph at the summit won't have anyone really missing the core of this cold air. Actual temps both Monday and Tuesday on the mountain will be in the single numbers. Winds will then relax a touch for Wednesday and temperatures will moderate some. This potential Miller-A type storm is still a possibility for someone and deserves watching with a possible impact on Thursday. Any storm would then clear for Friday when we can still expect some wind though temperatures will continue to slowly moderate. 

Ridging in western North America continues to be indicated for the last week of February giving us the +PNA structure I mentioned the other day. Most of the simulations continue to show moderating temperatures, but this remains an encouraging sign for what has been an amazing month so far.

Updates on our two storms over the next 5 days and a possible third to watch late next week

Tuesday's clouds are expected to linger into the overnight just enough to prevent an excessively cold Wednesday morning. We then are expecting another interval of February sunshine for Wednesday and not much wind atop the small accumulation of snow. We have eyes on two storms over the next 5 days and a potential third is out there late next week. Can't say I am entirely happy with the trends though it remains a pretty good forecast for northern Vermont overall. 

Storm number 1 appears to be a real head scratcher for me. Sure we are still competing with a pesky southeast ridge though arctic air has proven strong enough to overwhelm this feature and provide Washington, DC with several inches of snow which is highly unusual in this jet stream. The next wave of low pressure is expected to proceed through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and into the eastern Great Lakes early Thursday. There is a coastal transfer but given the building -AO, I am perplexed as to why it isn't stronger. The shift in storm track is not a good one for Vermont though in spite of this, we still should be on the receiving end of a decent front-end thump and some powder for skiers for the Thursday ski day. This is shown on one model while most of the others a smaller accumulation than I would think under the circumstances followed by a change to sleet Thursday morning and perhaps a small dose of the dreaded freezing rain during the midday period. I don't think the ice will be a significant problem and I am instead hoping for a trend showing a nice plastering of 6-10 inches of snow Thursday morning. It's not shown now unfortunately, just 3-6 inches with some sleet for the start of the ski day.

Light snow showers are expected as arctic makes a return to Vermont for Friday. Expect a cold, blustery and sunny day with temperatures in the teens. Clouds then return for Saturday and snow from storm 2 is expected to arrive sometime Saturday evening. Ensembles, in the aggregate, are still quite bullish on the Saturday event though this system has also shifted slightly north and yes, we would like this trend to stop as of now.  Fueled by robust upper air support, this storm will start like many of the great ones, with severe weather in the south. Low pressure will then take aim at New England for Sunday with a narrowing range of possible outcomes. The worst appears to be a trajectory right over northern Vermont and this would limit the snowfall to a small accumulation on the front end  and a healthier 5-10 on the back Sunday evening and night. A track over central or southern New England would yield a much better 15-30 inch like result as we would remain in the healthy cold conveyor of the storm for an extended period on Sunday into Monday. 

In the last update, I made mention of the President's Day holiday and that the air looked cold but not bitterly cold. More recent indications would suggest that a period of bitterly cold temperatures accompanied by high winds is now more likely centered around the Monday to Tuesday time frame. Right now Monday appears to be the windiest with readings in the vicinity of 10 and Tuesday appears to be the coldest with readings near zero and winds remaining formidable. I expect some good skiing those days, but prepare for the elements.The remainder of the week features gradually softening cold and a potential third storm brewing over the south. Ensembles have been moving this sucker around from run to run, but the setup appears very good for a Miller A type storm which means some sort of strong low pressure area moving up the coast (as opposed to many storms which come at us from the west). A long way to go on this  weather system. 

Looks like we get a bit of support from the PNA for the last week of February and when combined with the currently building negative AO, should provide us with another wintry week to finish a fantastic month. 

 

Vermont remains on the cold side of an intense temperature clash that means big storms over the next 7 days

Another fantastic weekend in the books and one has to go back quite a long way to remember so many winning weekends with the season still in the vicinity of the half way mark. There's much to discuss and when weather maps look like this, smaller details can get missed or glossed over so apologies for that in advance. 

A core of bitterly cold air will attempt to build across northern New England early this week. While the most intense part of this airmass is expected to remain to our northwest, it is nonetheless impressive to see sub-zero readings (Tuesday and Wednesday morning) with such a strong jet stream ridge across southeast North America. Such is the playing field this week and when you mix it all together, you can create all kinds of intriguing weather situations.  In the near term, its just really the chilly temperatures that will be the story. Some partial sunshine can be expected for Monday with temperatures in the teens. The polar jet is expected to bring a weak disturbance with just enough moisture to induce a bit of snowfall Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation will be building across the southeast in this period, but will be well south of Vermont.  The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday precedes a fair weather though quite arctic high pressure center which will temporarily build across the state and and allow for clearing late in the day Tuesday and then a very sub-zero night when readings could reach -10 or -15. Following the cold and calm bluebird Wednesday, clouds will be on the increase and the fun begins. 

There are two big weather systems to contend with over the next week. The first on Thursday has an initial low that is now forecast to track a bit farther north than what was indicated a few days ago. Though I am not quite sure the track has been nailed down yet, I am confident in a critical energy transfer which should ensure snow for northern Vermont. The trajectory of the initial storm remains critical as it will determine whether we are supplied with the best conveyor of moisture and get a 10-20 inch storm or a 4-8 inch storm. The energy transfer is also key as a robust one should assist us with the moisture question and eliminating the problem of having an initial storm travel over the Adirondacks. The action is expected to begin Thursday morning and I am curious to see how models handle this over the next few days. This is the time of the year for energy transfers, not big wound up areas of low pressure in the eastern Great Lakes and an enhancement of the former will help us nail down one of the better snow events of the season. This system is also a fast moving one, riding that furious jet which is fueled by the clashing of jet stream features (the polar one and the southeast ridge). Drier air is expected to take over by Friday, which is expected to be blustery no matter what the storm does and chilly with temperatures in the teens and below zero wind chills. 

Is the storm expected for February 16th finally going to evolve into the big one ? Ensembles have been trending that way in their simulations over the past few days. This is a storm expected to get a massive amount of fuel from the Gulf that will likely include a violent day of severe weather in the south on Saturday, February 15th. Winter storms that orginate this way, with convective energy near the Gulf, often do become the historic nor'easters we remember years later and I am very confident of a very strong area of low pressure moving northeast toward us later in the weekend. The particulars beyond this will need to be sorted out, but most of the questions relate to the track and strength of the storm and not a phase or an energy transfer and this eliminates some moving parts. Still the storm could get pushed south or north limiting the snowfall. Yes, a big amplifier, even in this weather pattern could bring mixed precipitation though I still consider it less likely verses an all snow scenario. 

Still expecting the negative AO to dominate the back part of February. This has been the missing ingredient in teleconnection speak over the past month with the cold induced mostly by the EPO and PNA, both of which have been very favorable with the former often being underestimated and the latter responsible for the unfortunate situation in Southern California. A pattern dominated by a negative AO such as this one usually consists of a softer chill as opposed to bitterly cold temperatures and a constant threat for east coast storms. Enjoy folks and hope for big results this week ! 

Fantastic snow setup emerging with 4-8 inches of cold snow this weekend and a big one possible Feb 13-14

It's been both a snowy and cold week across interior New England. The first 7 days of February has in fact seen lower temperatures than what we saw in the recent cold month of January. And this has all happened while much of the southern United States has experienced temperatures more typical of mid-Spring. This raging north to south temperature battle is expected to continue for the next 10 days and will be responsible for a very interesting set of weather maps which, if even half of these verify, will result in a lot of snow for us.

Still expecting some snow showers to linger into early Saturday and then it appears to be a very seasonable February day. Sunshine should dim as the day progresses and winds are expected to eventually become relatively calm. Even though some snowfall is approaching, visibility should stay very good throughout the day. The track of the storm responsible for the snow Saturday night has shifted south just a touch and the heaviest snowfall has also shifted south. It's a quick moving storm and is still poised to deposit a modest and cold snowfall for MRG. Snow begins in the evening and ends as a light snowfall midday Sunday. Expect a 4-8 inches total for ski day Sunday with temperatures holding in the high teens. .

As mentioned, this is really a battle royale as arctic cold covering much of southern Canada next week attempts to undercut a rather formidable ridge positioned over southeast North America. There are multiple waves of low pressure expected to form along this highly baroclinic zone. Vermont can expect a dry and cold Monday and this is our best shot for sunshine. Clouds are then expected to dominate the rest of the week along with chilly temperatures. The first wave of low pressure is currently indicated to be a snow producer for the coast while delivering inland area a glancing blow. As the week progresses, there are growing indications that the next wave of low pressure could evolve into a sizeable winter storm that could become the biggest of the season for interior areas of New England. The timing of this appears to be in the Thursday to Friday (Feb 13-14), 18 years removed from what was the best winter storm of the century for Mad River Glen. We are just less than a week away from this so expect some fine tuning. 

The potential late week snow is not the last. Ensembles indicate another amplification late in the holiday weekend, centered around the President's Day holiday. To my eyes, this appears more like another snow or storm situation rather than an excessive cold type of amplification though more cold weather is expected in the wake of this persisting through at least February 19th.  What was initially an EPO driven winter weather situation will become a more -AO driven situation and this should really reduce the risk of a thaw even beyond February 20th. In the meantime, this certainly qualifies as one of the best snow setups I've seen in Vermont in some time.