As I mentioned, it's almost remarkable how March totally fell apart from a standpoint of new snow. We did receive a number of really good corn-horn days, but the month has been startling for its lack of snow. The events that we seem to be earmarked for have fallen apart or under-performed and the pattern has hardly been supportive for too many of those regardless. It's easily been the least snowiest March since the 2015-2016 winter that wasn't, but March of 2016 was hardly a surprise and felt just like a continuation of bad luck. Northern Vermont has had a very productive winter up to now and even the current month, though warm, has seen similar temps to last year which was very snowy by way of comparison.
This week was suppose to provide a bit of an encore performance and I can't say I am enjoying the song choice as of yet. An enhanced area of instability on Wednesday is expected to situate itself over the state and provide an opportunity for some elevation sensitive snow showers and an accumulation. The day should feature some sun to start and then clouds will enhance and snow should begin, falling at varying intensities. I have to admit some hesitancy because of our struggles this month, but this is undoubtedly the deepest area of instability I have seen over the northern Green Mountains this season. Not atypical to see the best instability late in March with the higher sun angle yet still notable. Most of the ski day features more of a westerly wind over MRG which can still mean snow showers though the heaviest, with that wind direction, usually set up farther north. The wind is expected to shift and become more northwesterly in the evening which may be the time when snow is accumulating the heaviest. I am going to put out a 4-8 inch expectation with 1-3 falling Wednesday afternoon and 3-6 falling Wednesday evening and during the overnight. These events always have bust potential and like I said to open, almost every event this month has under-performed. Snowfall is expected to abate for the ski day Thursday with temperatures creeping just above the freezing mark on the mountain. Lighter snow showers are anticipated for Thursday night thanks to a quick moving disturbance which should clear for the ski day Friday.
I am certainly not overwhelmed with the pattern for the last few days of March into early April though I will say this. There is a very impressive buildup of cold across southern Canada. Though it isn't expected to have a major impact on U.S. weather generally, it could impact Vermont and it gives us a chance, just a chance, for some sort of decent early spring event. On Saturday, a very warm push of air is pushing northward as this cold tries to anchor itself over Quebec. This gives us the chance for some overrunning snowfall Friday night and even some ice for early Saturday. Cold air is then expected to make another push south as the weekend progresses and another period of very cold rain, ice and some snow is again possible. Models aren't indicating a big event for the early part of next week and it's unlikely, yet not completely out of the question. Just a question the timing of what could be multiple waves of low pressure riding along an intense north to south temperature boundary. I would expect a day or two of wintry like temperatures just after the month flips to April and then there are indications of another surge of mild weather for the first full weekend of April.
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