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Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Snow is possible for the weekend but the cold is losing its grip as April begins

Some of the low clouds and rain impacting much of Vermont Tuesday morning will give way a few breaks of sun and very mild weather as strong southerly winds blow the hint of seasonal change to MRG. This will be followed by rain showers and much colder temperatures Wednesday along with the occasional morning snow shower. After high temps of above 60 in some of the lower elevations Tuesday, Wednesday will see temperatures of near freezing and wind chills in the teens. Those kind of temperature and weather swings are a notorious characteristic of New England in early spring.

Weekend system could bring snow (its close) but powder is unlikely
The below normal temps will continue through thursday thanks to a decaying but once very strong late season arctic airmass which has helped to keep winter firmly in charge across the west during the last few days. The airmass will continue to weaken while over the east and will actually be quite stale upon the arrival of our next weather system. The NAO continues to battle it out with the prevailing western upper trough and it appears as though we will get a more favorable out of this late week storm system when it passes. It is April however and given the weakening nature of the airmass next week, our prospects for "powder" appear low. Snow remains a possibility however and could arrive as early as Friday and continue into the night before either tapering off Saturday or turning to drizzle or a light rain. We may indeed see temperatures as low as 10 during the middle of this week but while the storm is in progress I really don't expect temps to stray too far from freezing and may hover just above freezing at the base.

Spring skiing next week

There continues to be a big compition between the teleconnection indicators as we head toward next week regarding the prevailing weather pattern. The NAO, which has a tendency to provide us with the more favorable storm tracks continues to be negative and favorable. The PNA however is not providing much in the way of support however and this typically has a more direct correlation to temperatures relative to normal. Once the system clears during the weekend, the return of sunshine will mean that afternoon temperatures climb to well above freezing over a succession of days beginning Sunday and persisting through next week. So long as we stay mainly dry, this will not be a bad thing as we will see the harvesting of the corn crop (corn snow i should say).

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