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Thursday, March 27, 2008

No rain this weekend but new snow will be limited

And it's somewhat disappointing to watch what was a borderline rain/snow event turn into a non-event. We have entered a pattern however where, with the help from the mostly negative NAO, most of the our potential weather makers have tracked further south verses some initial indications. As frustrating as this may be for the weekend, we are going to once again call on the NAO for some first aid next week as it looks like a couple of systems will need to track a bit further south in order to deliver us our much needed goods.

What our weekend storm will do
The weekend system in question exists as a result of a rather intense temperature contrast which stretches right across the middle of the country. The temperature contrast is often referred to by Meteorologists as a natural zone of "baroclinicity" and a baraclinic zone can be described as an area ripe for storm system development. And yes a storm will develop, but from an organizational standpoint it will fail to mature and will merely move east in disjointed fashion. Moisture from this system will arrive on the east coast as early as Thursday but will struggle to push north into Vermont. A period of snow is possible early Friday, perhaps enough for a light accumulation but later on Friday much drier air will prevail across the state and precipitation will be forced southward. The outcome for the weekend appears cold relative to normal and much drier relative to a few days ago. There is still enough low level instability for flurries throughout the day Saturday but the snow should not amount to much. Temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark on Saturday but should do so and then some on Sunday allowing for a bit of softer snow in the afternoon.

The next week looking glass
There are some competing forces in the pattern as we head into early April. We will see a substantial block develop across Greenland which will help to amplify the already negative NAO. At the same time however will be for the formation of a large trough across the west coast. The result will be a zone of above normal temps across the Plains which will at times try and extend eastward. One of these times will be during the arrival of another storm system early next week. This is why the NAO could prove to be instrumental here since this particular storm will need to trend south in order to provide us with any snow. We will be dealt a similar hand regarding yet another system which will impact the region in the time frame of next weekend. In between, I would expect temperatures to be a little below normal but in early April this can still mean well above freezing for afternoon high temperatures.

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