A week later, a lot of spring later, still some cold to come but little snow

Recent days have not been nearly as cold as I would have expected but overall it has been brilliant. An amazing stretch of sunshine and warm afternoons that is really quite rare around these parts in March and I am told quite favorable for the maple syrup trade. The skiing is great also particularly in the afternoons in the high spring sun softened snow.

Following the rain showers Wednesday, colder weather will again re-emerge across the Vermont high country Thursday on blustery northwest winds. The upper trough responsible for the return to cold will become situated off the Atlantic Coast and the northwest flow in the jet stream is typically a stable scenario for the state where terrain induced snow will be tough to come by. Friday will be a relatively chilly day with temperatures struggling to exceed the freezing mark and we could see some light snow on Saturday as the second in the series of off-shore jet amplifications occurs. In the end though the new snow will amount to very little. Sunday will simply be a chilly and blustery day by March standards with temperatures up around freezing in the afternoon and well below freezing at night. Snowfall for the weekend will amount to 2-3 inches at best and a trace at worst.

Temperatures will modify quite rapidly as the often do in March early next week. The region will start to lose the support of the favorable winter teleconnections and by the middle of the week spring weather will dominate the playing field again and snow cover will continue to gradually erode. It is quite rare to see the first 18 days of March go by with less than 5 inches of snow and it has been years since I have seen such tranquillity in a normally volatile month but there is simply not that much fight in winter right now aside for a few chilly days.

The end of next week should feature another rain event and a bit of uncertainty thereafter regarding the nature of the airmass that follows. The american model suggests a return to seasonable or even below normal temps while the european argues for a continuation of relative warmth.