Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, February 24, 2011

Quick moving but powerful storm will dump on MRG

I would advise getting out and enjoying this one if you can as March looks like it will start in a bad way for us skiers and a good way if your waiting for a warm-up.

This storm will be not far from Louisville, KY early Friday morning and then strengthen quickly as it rapidly makes its way toward the Gulf of Maine where it will strengthen to sub-990 mb by early Saturday morning. Were it not for the speed at which this storm is expected to move, it would certainly be our best of the year. It will nonetheless still be good thump and the region should get some good winds as well Friday evening into the night before quickly abating Saturday. Most importantly is the snow however which will begin around midday Friday and turn very heavy by the evening with lots of blowing and drifting making for very adverse travel. The heavy snow should slacken to flurries by midnight and be done with by Saturday. The blowing will certainly wind pack the snow but it will also ensure that Saturday features plenty of powder especially in the trees which are less exposed to the wind. Total accumulations will be around a foot or so but it will be tough to measure because of the drifting.

Saturday will be dry and chilly and should feature at least a period of sunshine although temperatures will struggle to reach the teens. As promised however we will have another shot at snow Saturday night as a weak wave of low pressure along a developing warm front spreads overrunning precipitation into the region. Accumulations will be on the lighter side since this system is certainly on the much weaker side. It would be wise however to enjoy whatever falls because things could get ugly in a hurry.

If your keeping score at home you might have noticed the sea of negatives in our little favorability tracker. We have managed this recent pattern with a mix of good and bad including the major thaw last week and the big storm we expect tomorrow. The possibility of a third thumping of powder in 4 days though has come crashing down however as warm air will flood the region at mid-levels Monday and precipitation which could start as ice will likely go to a period of rain. I had held out a little hope on for Monday but there is no fresh supply of cold to be had and warm air from the pesky southeast ridge will run through our defenses. Our hope at this point is for the storm to attain a negative tilt as it matures Monday enabling wrap around and terrain induced snow to impact the mountain for the first of March. Right now the event looks to be primarily ice and rain with up to a half inch of liquid.

A couple of days of wintry weather should follow for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame next week and a clipper could bring some fresh snow to the region during the middle of the week. As the week continues to progress however the pattern will begin to amplify in a not so ideal way confining cold and snow exclusively to the western states and producing some very mild conditions in the east by the first weekend in March. It could, if you buy into the ensembles at face value be extremely mild with near record breaking warmth. It would mean good spring skiing but I am not sure I want to see a thaw of this magnitude so early in March.

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