Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Saturday, February 26, 2011

Pattern to unleash at least two ice/rain events before its done

We had a nice little storm Friday and we will get some additional snows tonight which will be about enough for a few nice turns early tomorrow. In addition, those ambitious enough to extend the holiday week by a day could get rewarded with a few nice turns early Monday. Monday's storm has very little cold air to work with though it does bring with it a lot of moisture and warm air which is not the combination we are looking for. The latest cycle of model runs however is allowing some precipitation to work into Vermont before the cold weather has completely expired. This could very well result in a period of snow for the mountain early Monday, enough for a few inches and certainly a few good runs on the mountain before we ultimately go to freezing rain or rain during the middle part of the day. Temperatures will only reach the high 30's late Monday into Monday night but we still expect about a half inch or ice/rain which will be damaging although not catastrophic.

There are also some indications that the storm Monday/Tuesday could turn a little "anafrontal" over New England which essentially allows precipitation to continue falling even after the passage of a cold front. Some new snow could result from this Tuesday but there are no indications that this will amount to anything of significance. We will see winter-like temps during the middle and even later part of the week. The cold front Tuesday will send temperatures closer to normal and then a reinforcing shot of cold may bring an inch or two of snow late Wednesday or early Thursday and then bring 2 days of below normal temperatures before more trouble starts for the weekend.

The first full weekend in March will feature another major push of milder temperatures. Although some overrunning snow is possible as we transition out of the grips of arctic air, temperatures should get pretty warm both afternoons next weekend. In addition another system should spread rain into the region Sunday or Monday the 8th and it could be a much warmer rain verses what we will see on the last day of February. A brief cool down early next week will be short-lived and give way to another push of warmth around the 10th of March and another rain event could be included.

I realize this is the one of the more negative outlooks that has come from the SCWB. If your searching for some good news, there may be some by the middle of March as the unfavorable teleconnections are finally showing signs of making at least a partial switch. If the mountain can survived the next 10-12 days, winter could give an encore performance before we transition to spring.

1 comment:

Eric said...

Hey we have had an awesome winter so far, maybe the rain will miss us the way so many snowstorms did last year. In the meantime we have had some sick turns this year!!