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Sunday, March 3, 2013

Mostly dry this week and some storm potential for next week

The storm that will have everyone's attention this week is a big one and will certainly cause its share of travel headaches. Unfortunately the storm is not expected to have an impact on northern New England. The storm will become better organized over the Ohio Valley Tuesday and a simple look at the radar at that time would have us thinking we are lined up for glory. This particular pattern however is anchored by a 2010-style block over the Hudson and Davis strait. A jet stream block of this magnitude has profound ramifications on the storm track and this will be no exception. The storm will ultimately become a ferocious coastal system near the Virginia Tidewater causing snow and wind in the Mid Atlantic that could both shut down travel and result in power outages. Recent runs of the American model have shown a minimal impact for Vermont and a significant impact for portions of coastal New England but I think this is a stretch. Most of the snow with this storm should be south of NYC as the storm will be forced out to sea well before making that key northward turn.

This week's miss will leave us dry and many days should feature decent amounts of sunshine. The strong March sun should power temperatures past the freezing mark for a few hours during afternoons at least at the low elevations but low dewpoints and low overnight temperatures should prevent the mountain from losing significant amounts of snow. Warmer temps are expected Friday and Saturday where readings should push into the 40's but we don't expect rain or strong winds and overnights should continue to stay above freezing. The European Ensembles in particular have shown strong indications of our next big storm early next week around the time of the 11th and 12th. The various operational models have been all over the place and there has yet to be any consistency in the simulations from model to model or run to run. March weather is notorious for being difficult to project in the longer range. From my vantage point, the situation has some promise but there could be limited available cold air when precipitation commences. Ultimately however we should see some accumulation from this by the middle of next week and the questions should have to do with how much.

Through the middle of March there remains strong evidence that blocking over the Davis Strait will be driving our train. We should continue to see some above-freezing days but I doubt we see a major melt down through St Patty's day weekend.

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