Thursday was a bit quieter on the precipitation side and a little warmer than I had anticipated but this game is not over yet. The weakened area of low pressure responsible for our snow will drift offshore Friday combine with another storm and get throttled westward over the weekend thanks to the giant block over the Hudson Strait. Although we could get a few inches from snow showers Friday, additional moisture will come at us from the top and down the spine of the Green Mountains both Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will remain above freezing in many valley locations during the day (it is March now) but we should see readings remain generally below freezing from the mid-mountain to the summit. Bursts of snow, when they come, will help keep temperatures in the 20's where it's elevated. When can we expect the most additional snow ? There is loose consensus that the biggest burst occurs late in the day Saturday leading us to a powdery Sunday but I would expect some new snow Friday and Sunday as well. Total accumulations for the upcoming 3-day period will likely be a wide range with a few inches at the base and as much as 10 inches on the summit.
Further out in the forecast period there are a few adjustments although I think the general themes remain. The pattern, through mid-month is anchored by a very favorable blocking configuration ensuring no major early March melt-downs. There is the potential for a big storm in the middle of the upcoming week but the blocking is so strong (what is this 2010 ?) that the jet stream will force this potentially strong winter storm into the Mid-Atlantic where there is the potential for some big snow. In the meantime, MRG will stay high and dry once the snow showers subside on Monday. Much of the week will feature sunshine with cold mornings and tolerable afternoons. The adjustments I had mentioned have to do with the period between the 8th and the 13th of March. In the last post, the blog mentioned the potential for a storm around the 9th or 10th of the month, basically next weekend. The ensembles seem to be keying in on a short-lived warm-up in this time frame as of now. The warm spell could mean temperatures reach as high as 50 for a day but this is nothing unusual. The pattern is still expected to ultimately become highly amplified around the 11th of March and there are strong hints of a significant storm on that day or the day after, one that could produce more significant snow. I'll have more later this weekend but the fun should continue I am happy to report.