Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Even if we miss a big weekend snow, good times lay ahead !!

We had collectively hoped that our midweek update would be dominated by storm talk, especially after enduring a devastating January thaw that has shut off operations at MRG. We can still talk and we can still hope, but candidly speaking, the models are suggesting that our weekend storm remains a pipe dream. We have finally nudged temperatures back below the freezing mark and a little closer to seasonable levels. The pattern, as defined by the jet stream, will gradually become more amplified by late in the week and into the early part of the weekend. Conditions will be ripe for a storm and the the right upper level impulse at the right time is certainly capable of lighting the proverbial match. On Friday, the weather map will consist of an eastward moving clipper system. The energy from this system will be competing for territory with a conglomeration of weaker low pressure centers off the Atlantic coast. The competition is not a healthy one as far as we are concerned. The weather systems over the Atlantic will try and suck the clipper off the coast Saturday and eliminate the chance for a big snow. If the timing and positioning of these many weather systems within this amplified set -up turn out to be different than currently advertised, it could significantly alter how things play out this weekend.

In terms of actual weather on the mountain, the decaying clipper should be bring a pool of instability to the Green Mountains that is capable of igniting show showers. I would not entirely rule out something bigger but the evidence simply isn't there as of Wednesday morning. As one clipper gets sucked out to sea, another clipper, this one straight out of western Ontario, races southeast Sunday. This system will not be in competition with any Atlantic storm and should spread some light snow into Vermont during the day. Within a few days, I think we will have a better idea of how much snow can fall both days this weekend. Temperatures on both days this weekend will be in the 20's during the days and teens or single numbers at night (very average). 

The expectations in the longer range are the same as a few days ago. The amplification of the jet stream this weekend begins the metamorphosis of what will become a classic and beautiful looking positive PNA pattern. Specifically, this refers to the development of a large upper level ridge in western North America that will ultimately extend deep into the Yukon. A feature such as this in the jet stream is capable of sending very cold weather into New England and many other places. It should eliminate the chances of any additional thaws, greatly reduce the chances of any rain and increase the chances for a big snow. Various models hint at several chances for snow within the two week stretch beginning this weekend and persisting through the end of the month. The first comes around the time frame of Tuesday Jan 21. Snow from a clipper system are possible later in the week followed by what could be another round of bitterly cold temperatures. In the last week of the month, there are signs of some splitting in the jet stream which would really leave the door open for several big snows.  

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