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Sunday, January 12, 2014

Miserable stretch of weather will give way to a pattern conducive for both snow and cold

Almost done with this 4-day horror movie of rain and warmth. Monday and Tuesday will be the last of it for a while we think. Both of these days should feature near 40-degree temperatures with Monday the dry day and Tuesday featuring the rain. Models have struggled to reach an agreement regarding this system over the past week and it looks at this point like it will be a rather disorganized storm. There is a coastal element to this system which will prevent excessively mild air from reaching Vermont; in fact, precipitation could be snow for a time at the highest summits, including General Stark. Whatever falls Tuesday, rain or snow, it won't be a lot and it will end a very forgettable stretch of weather.

Beyond Tuesday there are all kinds of interesting details to sort through and lots of these details will appear different from day to day. Most importantly is that the pattern will align very favorably for at least a two week stretch beginning the 15th and persisting through most of the rest of January. There will be several chances for snow, many of these will be light accumulations but I think at least 2 should be significant. Frustrations have been running a little high in the powder hound community but I expect these frustrations to be alleviated to a degree. It is, as mentioned a few times, a beautiful looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream. Ensembles actually seem rather confident, that the amplifications from this pattern will peak at two different times, once this upcoming weekend (the 19th and another toward the following weekend (the 23rd - 27th). 

The specifics in this two week period are a clouded, foggy mess at this point. An important point to remember however is how imperative it is to get the pattern aligned correctly and the rest will follow. The first chance for snow does come Wednesday from a clipper system following closely on the heals of Tuesday's wet system. This looks to be a storm capable of delivering 2-4 inches to the mountain but it will be of the wet variety before temperatures finally tumble back to seasonable levels Wednesday night. The more interesting scenario involves the weather map for the upcoming weekend. The pattern as mentioned will become highly amplified. It will be a "tinderbox" so to speak. Two clippers will move southeast into this amplification, one Friday and one Saturday. Either one of these systems could explode along the New England coast and become a big storm for somebody. Both systems could also simply remain clipper systems, failing to yield the significant accumulation that is so desperately needed. At the very least, I think the upcoming weekend will feature some snow. Furthermore, it will a chilly time with temperatures in the teens by day and 0-10 at night. 

The chilly temperatures along with the chance for at least terrain induced snow should continue through Monday the 20th. The pattern will temporarily relax during the middle of the week but as mentioned, we should see another major jet amplification toward the end of the week and into the weekend. This will open the door and give the region another opportunity for a big storm somewhere between the 23rd and 27th of the month. 

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