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Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Spring has arrived in Vermont though winter might give an encore late in the month

It took quite a while but as of mid-April, winter is rapidly receding and spring has arrived. Temperatures are likely to fall back under the freezing mark for a few short hours both Wednesday and Thursday mornings but plenty of sunshine will boost readings into the 50's during the afternoons. The El Nino might have failed in its effort to have much of an impact on the winter but it has strengthened over the last month and has helped to invigorate the southern branch of the jet stream this month. The consequences of this could prove interesting late in the month when a large upper level ridge is expected to reemerge over the Yukon and parts of Alaska. In the meantime, which covers the rest of the MRG season, weather conditions are expected to remain quiet.

Energy in the weakened polar branch of the jet stream will deliver some clouds Friday but aside from an isolated shower or occasional sprinkles, weather conditions should remain mainly dry. For Saturday and even into Sunday, the MRG grand finale, the weather remains uncertain. There is a large and moist weather system in the middle part of the nation that may or may not get kicked eastward. The European and Canadian models holds most of this wet weather off until April 20 and 21st while the American GFS model suggests we get wet over the weekend. I tend to think the GFS is moving things along too quickly in this time frame so I am inclined to believe the drier outlook. That being said, even the drier scenario allows for an unsettled day Saturday with scattered showers and perhaps some high elevation wet snow showers. Once the dust settled on this argument, I'll tweet out some final details.

If we get another round of wintry weather, an entirely feasible possibility given the evolving weather pattern, we probably don't see it until after April 23rd or so. By then the mountain is expected to be closed. I'll provide some details on any such excitement in a subsequent post which will also include our annual seasonal weather summary. Part of me wants to continue past the weekend  but a bigger part is blogged out this season and is ready to refuel for next season.

2 comments:

Alexander Dube said...

hey I know it's been a long season, just want to thank you for all your work, this year and every year. you are my go to source for ski weather in VT, such a great resource. I know pulling this together must be a lot of work, but I just want you to know that it is greatly appreciated by your dedicated readers. thanks again, can't wait for the season summary and to start reading you again in December.

Unknown said...

I second that. And thanks for tying the local weather into the larger scale atmospheric patterns. Much appreciated.