Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Some decent snow over the next 3 days, a storm to watch next week and some very cold weather in between

Looks a bit like winter again and were it not for the repeated misses this winter, no one would be complaining about what is a decently snowy week. We missed the best snow with the southern stream coastal bomb but the atmosphere is destabilizing as of late Tuesday and this should continue into early Wednesday. Projected atmospheric profiles through early Thursday shows a near ideal situation for terrain enhanced snow including both of the key ingredients; low level instability and moisture. Brian up at the mid-station posted his facebook page that it would take about 8 inches to get the mountain where we need it to be. I would have considered that a stretch a few days ago but I think 6-12 inches is a completely reasonable expectation during the period beginning Tuesday night and ending Thursday morning. If things break just right, accumulations could exceed a foot. Lets just cross our fingers and keep expectations in check for now.

The polar vortex still has its sights on Vermont this weekend. It will drop over New York state Friday and move right over Vermont on Saturday. In front of the PV is a clipper system with some limited moisture  Snow from this system could arrive by late in the ski day Friday. Snow from this will be on the light side but could get briefly squally early Saturday before the full onslaught of cold weather arrives by midday. This is by far and away the coldest outbreak of weather this season and the chill will be accompanied by strong northwest winds Saturday. Temperatures will start out near zero and may end the day Saturday closer to -10. By Sunday morning, temperatures could be -20 and potentially lower in a few locations. If there was more ice on the Great Lakes and a greater expanse of snow cover across New York State, New England and Quebec, this air mass would set records but will probably fall just short because of the lack of all these things. Sunshine will help boost temperatures up above zero Sunday and the moderation will continue into Monday.

I don't want to "doom and gloom" the next week outlook but I am nervous and want to convey that here. Temperatures should stay sub freezing and we should feel the impact of an "El Nino" fueled southern stream system that will ride up the coast in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This storm was visible on the ensembles 5 days ago and the impact is a virtual certainty at this point. We have very cold air in place but it will be growing stale by Tuesday as the storm pushes it's moisture toward New England. Some accumulating snow is likely but there are some indications now that this might turn into a major ice event for New England rather than snow. It's not certain this will occur but a possibility as of now. If the track of this storm can remain to the regions south, than precipitation will remain in the form of snow.

Another weaker surge of cold weather follows for Wednesday and Thursday. All of the ensembles are showing a push of warmer temperatures that begins around February 19th and ends quickly around February 21st. I am not sure what the end result of all that will be. At worst we get 1-2 above freezing days plus a rain event and at best the warm push is thwarted before reaching northern New England and it stays generally cloudy and maybe one of the days features some snow (this was actually shown on one operational model today).  The rest of the month after February 21st looks pretty good thanks to the development of another large ridge in western North America boosting the PNA way up over the zero line.

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