Hope everyone out there is staying warm either on the slopes or off them. We are in one of those classic New England very changeable weather situations. A direct attack from a polar vortex leading to the coldest weather of the winter season early on Sunday and then above freezing temperatures along with a period of rain on Tuesday. Only in New England can weather run the gamut quite like that.
Tuesday's storm will have some snow as well. Most of this comes Monday night after a relatively calm and not as chilly of a holiday. Accumulations will be in the 3-4 inch range by first tracks time Tuesday but by that time, precipitation will become freezing rain. By early afternoon, temperatures across a good part of the mountain will rise above freezing thus allowing for a period of plain rain. Sorry, but there is no escaping it. There is very clear indications that there will be some rapid warming of the lowest 5000 feet of the atmosphere Tuesday followed by rapid cooling Tuesday night. A brief period of snow is possible very early Wednesday followed by additional snow showers during the day and into Wednesday. Some additional accumulations are possible during this period between early Wednesday and midday Thursday and after it's all over, we should have a rather consolidated base with a few inches of powder on top.
The bad news for Tuesday swallows somewhat easier when looking at the newest projections for Feb 20th to 22nd. The potential warmth doesn't have nearly as much potential and should get mostly thwarted. Latest medium range operational models are also indicating overrunning snows that could amount to some significance on Saturday as the warm air tries but mostly fails to work it's way back into interior New England. Temperatures could still creep above freezing for a day (perhaps Sunday) but this appears to be a less and less important part of the outlook for the rest of February.
The last week of February continues to look on the chilly side with opportunities for snow on at least two occasions. A big burst in the PNA index is the main culprit for this and the favorable pattern has a good change of stretching into early March as well.