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Monday, February 13, 2017

Round 2 Wednesday/Thursday will bring additional snowfall but won't duplicate or exceed the Sunday/Monday totals

Our recent nor'easter was a winner for the state of Vermont and big winner for Mad River Glen as one of the few ski areas to spin its major lifts on what was a very blustery Monday. The winds will subside, visibility should improve and the sun may make a brief appearance on Valentines Day. This Valentines Day marks the 10 year anniversary of one of the best storms in the history of the coop and certainly the best in the now 12 year history of the blog. The number 1 storm in the history of the coop is probably the early March 2001 storm, but I'll defer the anointing of that title to others that may have had the fortune to ski during all those storms.

No such storm appears to be in the cards as a follow-up act on Wednesday and Thursday. That said, we didn't miss a big one by much and it appears likely that some healthy additional snows are on the way. The Manitoba Mauler will provide most of the action as it drops through the eastern Great Lakes. Snow should begin by daybreak Wednesday and continue throughout most of the ski day at a mostly light but occasionally moderate clip. This weather system will get an infusion of subtropical moisture, albeit later than we wanted, and this will cause the storm to "mini-bomb" in the Gulf of Maine. Yes, this will consolidate the snowfall once again to coastal Maine but it will also allow for an elongated period of snow across the Vermont high country both Wednesday night and Thursday. I've been suggesting a 4-8 outcome, but as of late Monday evening I think we can put this into the 6-12 category over the two day period with 3-6 inches being the range for each individual day. The American GFS model is the solution suggesting lesser amounts but it appears to be outlier mainly because it has the track of the storm farther north.

The chilly subfreezing temperatures should continue to prevail across most of the state through Saturday. Thursday appears to be the blustery day accompanied by the aforementioned snowfall and Friday and Saturday look to feature better visibility and less winds. There has been some concern expressed about a warming trend that would have us stuck with a few days of above-freezing temperatures. A tremendous amount of jet energy in the eastern Pacific will consolidate just off the West Coast and this will try and force the jet stream northward downstream. Models are suggesting one of those above-freezing days, the first, could come Sunday. Fortunately, jet stream amplification downstream of New England is now expected to mitigate some of the mild push. Sunday, looks relatively mild with temperatures well into the 30's, but the President's Day holiday and Tuesday both look chillier with temperatures well below freezing at night and only climbing to 30 during the day. The snow outlook between this upcoming Saturday (Feb 18) and Tuesday (Feb 21) looks rather bearish, as in hardly any, but I've been wrong before about such prognostications of zero snow so stay tuned.

As the holiday week progresses, there are continued signs that storminess might impact a broad portion of both the Midwest and Northeast United States. This happens however with very little cold air however and most places are likely to see rain as a result. As the week progresses into Thursday and Friday, cold air is likely to become more available and snowfall is possible. The pattern doesn't look entirely great however for the end of the month I am sorry to report. Not cataclysmic by any stretch but the absence of any high latitude blocking to provide eastern North America with cold weather is a little concerning. As I have mentioned previously, the outlook beyond 12 days has been especially difficult to decipher this year so if we don't like the long range outlook today, lets wait a few days and hope it improves.


Kavya Singh said...

wonderful and interesting post.

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edd samson said...

Will flights to Burlington tomorrow be delayed? I fly in around 5:30 PM from Philly.

Joshua Fox said...

What am I air traffic control ? Probably not on the flight but who knows. I flew from DCA to BTV with half a mile visibility on the landing. Wasn't a smooth flight but it was only delayed a half hour. Wednesday weather is not nearly as bad as that.

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