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Tuesday, February 28, 2017

Colder weather on the way but can we get rejevunated ?

Another "corn horn" is sounding through the Single Chair towers as the month turns from February to March. No doubt that "corn" can be nice to ski but the mountain could use some serious rejuvenation if we plan to extend our skiing through much of the upcoming month. Colder weather is certainly on the way but we need the snow as well.


March starts out with another day of excessive warmth. Rainfall forecasts have diminished somewhat in the last few days. I would expect a small amount Tuesday night followed mostly by intermittent showers throughout the day Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Mild breezes will help to efficiently mix out the atmospheric warmth and push temperatures well into the 50's. Though we were turn dramatically colder by Thursday, the wave of low pressure that I was hoping would help deposit some snowfall on the northern half of Vermont is not materializing quite as I had hoped. The snowfall will happen but most of it falls over Quebec north of the St Lawrence River. What is further insulting is the vigorous jet stream short wave that will pass well to the regions south Thursday night and Friday bringing snowfall to areas such as Washington D.C.; a place already seeing an early start to another growing season even a few cherry blossoms. The jet stream feature responsible for Mid-Atlantic snow will also rob the region of some of the potential low level instability. We will see some snow showers Thursday that will amount to a few inches along with temperatures hovering in the high 20's. Friday will only feature flurries however, along with substantial amounts of sunshine. Temperatures Friday may struggle to get into the low 20's along with strong winds.


As promised, we will have a wintry weekend. Saturday will be the chilliest day (and blustery) since early February with temperatures starting below zero and only reaching the teens during the afternoon in spite of more sunshine. Bit and pieces of some of the intense storminess in British Columbia will then begin to travel in our direction. One rather small piece will bring clouds and some snow later in the day Sunday or Sunday night. This rather putrid looking storm system may be our most definite chance for snowfall in the near term. Though we could see a 3-6 inch event, the storm will also bring with it a push of warmer air and temperatures are expected to moderate somewhat Monday and Tuesday.


This brings us to the questions relating to our more significant Tuesday system. This is the more significant part of the British Columbia stormy onslaught and there are certainly concerns that this low pressure will become too wrapped up and amplified too early. That said, the storm could also amplify, occlude and arrive in a weakened state on Tuesday March 7th. Though this would remove the possibility of a 2-foot snowfall, it would also thwart the possibility of another big mild surge of air. An occluded storm also brings with it a healthy pool of instability which could set the stage for terrain enhanced snowfall on Wednesday and Thursday of next week. I am inclined to think this is the most likely scenario for next week. Mixed bag of precip Tuesday and then snow and winter-like temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.


Colder air should remain in place through at least March 10 and then long range indications are mixed. Milder air is expected to again dominate the middle part of the United States but parts of the northeast could remain mostly wintry through the middle of the month.



5 comments:

Doug Antelman said...

Doesn't sound very promising. There's not much base left except up high

eda said...

We will be stuck in a boring march :(. At least we got some skiing this "winter". ..

Colin Gilbert said...

The fat lady is backstage warming up.

MHDSki said...

This sucks

ChaseM15 said...

Is this not the new norm to expect? My wife and I are moving from Brooklyn to Burlington this July...and I pray for the Green Mountain winters of my youth moving forward for myself and my future children, but I'm not terribly confident. It was, after all, 63.5 degrees in parts of Antarctica today. Ugh.