Mixed bag of precip late Monday into Tuesday and outlook remains less than ideal through very early Feb

Precipitation looks like it will arrive rather quickly Monday from the upcoming storm system, perhaps even before evening. Thanks to a late arriving push of arctic chill, precipitation will fall as snow or a snow/sleet mix for a few hours before going to a sleet and freezing rain mix late in the evening. I'll give NWS Burlington some credit on this. They were forecasting a warmer storm and for the most part stuck with it and models have somewhat trended in that direction. It won't be the washout that occurred two Friday's ago; in fact, only a minimal amount of rain is expected during the day Tuesday with some freezing rain in a few spots. Temperatures in most places will find their way above freezing during the day, albeit only by a few degrees. Both colder air and some accompanying instability will arrive Tuesday evening and we should see some snow as a result but accumulations look more probable farther north and my initial guess is for 1-3 Tuesday evening into early Wednesday.

Our outlook remains rocky through early February and that includes at least one additional surge of warmth during the last weekend of January. Arctic cold will actually reassert itself over the region temporarily late this week but will give way to the warm weather beginning late on Saturday Jan 27th. Models have lessened the intensity of the warm surge somewhat and some arctic chill remains a few hundred miles north over eastern Canada; nonetheless, Sunday looks like a torch and Sunday night and Monday look both very mild and rainy. Still some time to modify this forecast but if it holds, we will manage to have the coldest January in 3 years yet still end the month with less snow than when it started. Only in New England ! At least the Pats made the Super Bowl again (though I am not a Pats fan so I can't share in that enjoyment, but congrats if you are).

There are signs of a shift but they remain way out on the horizon. As mentioned in the last update, we will likely face one more somewhat adverse weather situation at the beginning of February with a move toward move consistent wintry weather after that. The evil empire remains a problem but the MJO is cycling and will be finished with the "warm" eastern North America phases around the time of February 5th if one would extrapolate the cycling. The MJO is a complex larger scale weather phenomenon to explain but warm phases can certainly induce the development of the so-called "evil empire" while cold phases can kill it. I know it's frustrating but we'll get trough it with a little patience.