Downgraded snow totals for Monday morning but a wintry week remains in play

The last few days have been a forecasting nightmare not only for the state of Vermont but for the entire northeast. You might spend some time, do some analysis and think you've made sense of things only to find it all trashed the next day. Even worse is when ideas that that were trashed 6 days ago turn out to be not such bad ideas. No choice but to keep rolling with the punches however and accept that there will be #amateurhour moments from time to time.

So our Monday powderfest got smacked with a significant downgrade. The system looks flatter and further south and east. This follows the Saturday system which also proved to be mostly a miss. As that storm exits the New England coast, much of Vermont will remained positioned to score 1-3 inches bit of fluffy snow from an inverted trough feature. That snow will be gone by Sunday morning but it should refresh the packed powdery surfaces that are already skiing very nicely over the past few days.

We expected the Sunday night into Monday storm to track from the Chesapeake Bay northeastward to western Cape Cod, a trajectory that is very conducive for at least a decent snow. That track has shifted south and eastward and the snowfall potential is therefore lower. This storm is already a quick moving and garden variety weather feature and a foot of snow would've required an optimal track. We aren't getting it but it doesn't look like we get shut out either. Light snow will still develop Sunday night and several hours of that should allow for a 2-4 inch snow total Monday. So as very cold early March temperatures establish themselves over Vermont early next week, the skiing will be quite good but not epic.

Monday, March 4th will feature some early flurries giving way to minimal amounts of sun in the afternoon. Monday will also be the warmest day of the week with afternoon temperatures nearing 30. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will all feature daytime high temperatures that struggle to reach the 20-degree mark. Most of the week (unlike the past few days) will also be quite blustery with below zero wind chills. I put the blame for the lack of terrain enhanced snow activity on the positive NAO during this stretch but it does look probable that we can score a little here and a little there from a series of small disturbances embedded within this upcoming series of chilly days. The first comes Tuesday night into Wednesday, the second Wednesday night into Thursday. As we get a little closer to the forecast period we can narrow-in a bit on what should be light snowfall totals but I would guess at a few inches (and hope for a surprise). March is inherently a more unstable period in the lower troposphere thanks mostly to the longer day and this certainly doesn't hurt.

The Alaskan ridge will break down as expected later this week and the cold pattern will relent and give way to more zonal flow. This progression continues to appear just a little slower, and slow enough to allow colder temperatures to remain enough in the forecast picture allow snow to remain a possibility around the time frame of March 10th. Temperatures will be a lot closer to freezing by then but there are hints of a decent looking storm followed by more seasonable temperatures. This replaces an outlook that featured milder temperatures around March 11-12. The pattern overall however still appears capable of throwing multiple mild days at the mountain around mid-month but it doesn't look overwhelmingly mild. In addition, the EPO, which is indicated to surge and allow for a more strengthy Pacific Jet stream around the time frame of March 9-12 is expected to relax again around the 15th. This suggests to me that although some mild weather is likely in mid March, winter won't entirely capitulate like it did in 2012.