Sunday night / Monday dump appears likely followed by another week of winter-like temps

Skiing continues to improve as the snow piles up and negative PNA finally loosens its grip after causing a near record cold month in many places acrsoss the northwestern quadrant of the country. Our weekend weather continues to evolve and defy conventional wisdom but that's why its unwise to hitch oneself to a wagon headed for a cliff. There's enough of that going on in the world right now so I have no intention of bringing that anywhere near MRG. And the news is good anyway. One storm that seemingly had every imaginable thing going for it will whiff why the next which appeared destined to be an easy miss will end up delivering. Go figure !

No new snow for Friday but with temperatures well into the 20's during the afternoon, calm winds, sunshine and some great visibility it should be an outstanding ski day. Saturday will turn out to be a somewhat cloudier and a little milder version of Friday but nonetheless quite decent. As we enjoy our peace and tranquility, a coastal low pressure center will take shape, the storm that originally had so much promise will limp away from the east coast and cause a few inches of snow in some areas across southern New England that have had an awful snow year. So congratulations to them for that but they've had plenty of decent years this past decade while its been more of a struggle in northern Vermont, relatively speaking of course.

Saturday's storm will exit quickly but much of the baroclinic energy will remain across the southeast and sets the stage for the next and now more interesting storm. With little blocking in the jet stream downstream and the jet stream amplifying and establishing  widespread cold setup for much of eastern North America next week, this did seem like a tough ask from this storm. But the jet stream across the southeast appears a bit stubborn about giving into the cold so abruptly and will help steer this storm northeastward just in time. We need a good track from this storm but indications are that we might get a near-perfect one with the developing low pressure area moving from the Chesapeake Bay to near Sandwich, MA Sunday night into early Monday. There is nothing spectacular about this storm but it will be a maturing storm with a healthy area of moisture. If we can keep this track in place (queue the Braveheart "hold" sequence), we can see a 8-16 inch event and an awesome powder day for Monday.  

Monday's storm will be a quick mover and will not get stuck in the maritimes and we thus will not enjoy an extra opportunity for terrain enhanced snow showers later Monday into Tuesday.  Cold weather will prevail and will persist throughout the week with temperatures near zero for lows Tuesday through Thursday and struggling to reach 20 during the days. A small disturbance in the midweek period will bring the potential for a small accumulation of snow.

A pattern change toward milder mid-month weather remains in the cards but it does look slightly slower and may be proceeded by an opportunity for snow around the weekend of March 9th or 10th. I'll give this a more detailed look next update. I do think it likely for a corn horn alert between March 11th to 15th for at least 2 days.